WTC final qualification scenarios: How India, South Africa, Australia, and Sri Lanka can qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship final
Only 15 Tests remain in the 2023-25 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle. However, no team is still assured of a place in the WTC final. England, West Indies, Pakistan and Bangladesh are out of contention. New Zealand have only a slim mathematical chance. However, India, Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa are still genuine contenders to finish in the top two.
India reclaimed the top spot in the World Test Championship points table with their 295-run win in the first Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 Test in Perth. They have a points percentage (PCT) of 61.11 after 15 matches, having won nine games. Following their 233-run win over Sri Lanka in Durban, South Africa have moved up to second place, with a PCT of 59.26.
Australia suffered a shocking loss to India in Perth and now find themselves in third position in the WTC points table. They have a PCT of 59.26 after 13 games. Sri Lanka are fourth in the table. The loss to the Proteas has seen their points percentage slip to 50.
As the four teams battle it out for a place in the World Test Championship final at Lord's in June, we take a look at the various qualification scenarios and how they would impact the contenders.
#1 India (PCT: 61.11)
As mentioned earlier, India are back on top of the WTC points table after the triumph in Perth. However, a place in the World Test Championship final is still some distance away. India can qualify for the WTC final without having to depend on other results if they beat the Aussies 5-0, 4-1, 4-0 or 3-0.
If India beat Australia 3-1, they will have to hope South Africa do not beat Sri Lanka in the second Test. If Sri Lanka lose the second Test, it would be curtains for India. A draw between Sri Lanka and South Africa would be enough for India to qualify for the World Test Championship final.
If India defeat Australia 3-2, they can still qualify if Sri Lanka manage to draw one of their two home Tests against the Aussies. If the Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends in a 2-2 draw, India will need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka 2-0. The Lankans then need to beat Australia by a 1-0 margin for India to qualify.
In the event of Rohit Sharma and co. going down 2-3 to Australia, then can still qualify for the WTC final, but will need several results to go their way. In this scenario, the England-New Zealand series needs to finish in a 1-1 draw. Further, the South Africa-Sri Lanka and South Africa-Pakistan series needs to end in a 1-1 draw. Also, the scoreline of the Sri Lanka-Australia series must be 0-0.
#2 South Africa (PCT: 59.26)
South Africa have three home games remaining in their ongoing WTC cycle - one against Sri Lanka and two against Pakistan. If the Proteas lose the second Test against Sri Lanka and then win 2-0 against Pakistan, they will finish with a PCT of 61.11. However, Sri Lanka and India could still go past them.
Sri Lanka can surpass South Africa's PCT if they win 2-0 against Australia and India if they win at least three of their remaining four Tests against Australia. With four wins and a draw, the Aussies can also go past the Proteas, but then both India and Sri Lanka would finish below South Africa.
If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test, even a 1-1 draw against Pakistan would be enough for them to qualify for the WTC final. Here, South Africa would again end with a PCT of 61.11. However, Sri Lanka can only get to 53.85 even if they win both Tests against Australia. Only one of Australia or India can then go past South Africa in this scenario.
#3 Australia (PCT: 57.69)
India's win in Perth and South Africa's triumph in Durban has pushed defending champions Australia down to the third position in the World Test Championship points table. With six Tests to play in the ongoing cycle, they have a PCT of 57.69.
With four wins and a draw in their remaining six matches, Australia can finish ahead of Sri Lanka, who can reach a maximum of 61.54. In such a scenario, only South Africa, who can achieve a maximum of 69.44 points, can finish ahead of them in the WTC points table.
In the event of Australia going down to India 2-3, they can still finish ahead of Rohit and company. For that to happen, the Aussies will need to win 2-0 in Sri Lanka. If that happens, Australia will have a PCT of 60.53, while India will be on 58.77. Only South Africa could go past Australia in this case.
#4 Sri Lanka (PCT: 50)
Following the loss to South Africa in Durban, Sri Lanka's PCT has fallen to 50. If they win their remaining three matches in the WTC cycle, they will finish with a points percentage of 61.54. This will still be enough for them to qualify as only one of India or Australia can finish above them in such a scenario.
If they lose one more Test and win the other two, they will finish with a points percentage of 53.85. Sri Lanka will still have a chance of reaching the WTC final but will have to hope for several results to go in their favor.