2022 F1 Mexican GP: Preview and Predictions

The 2022 F1 Mexican GP, Sergio Perez's home race, returns this weekend. In a season where both the championships have already been decided, there's still a lot to play for. In terms of the constructors' championship, the battle is still on for P4 until P9. Similarly, in the drivers' championship, we're looking at a battle for P2 between Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez. There is a battle for P4 as well between Carlos Sainz, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton.

The 2022 F1 Mexican GP will see a bit more spice with the verdict of the Red Bull Cost Cap saga and the accompanying penalty getting announced. So, what can we expect from the weekend? Let's find out in our preview and predictions for the 2022 F1 Mexican GP.

2022 F1 Mexican GP: Preview

#1 The after-effects of the Red Bull Cost Cap penalty

In what appears to be a formality now, Red Bull is looking at a financial and sporting penalty for the minor breach of the 2021 F1 season cost cap. The team will not be too affected by the financial penalty, but the sporting penalty that appears to involve a percentage reduction in wind tunnel time will undoubtedly sting. However, what will hurt even more is the consequent 'cheating' allegations that will be thrown both Red Bull and Max Verstappen's way during the 2022 F1 Mexican GP.

Next year’s Red Bull after being deducted 25% wind tunnel time for breaching the cost cap https://t.co/kJ2QKUMPVH

Will the penalty be considered sufficient, or will it leave the other teams and fans disappointed is a question that needs an answer, but one thing is for sure, Red Bull would be hoping that the entire cost cap saga is now in the rearview mirror for the team.

#2 Max Verstappen on the verge of history

Amongst all the noise off the track, Max Verstappen is on the verge of rewriting history. The Red Bull driver has 13 wins to his name this season. The record for the most wins in a season is 13, jointly by him, Michael Schumacher, and Sebastian Vettel. With a win at the 2022 F1 Mexican GP, the Red Bull driver breaks the record and does it with two more races to spare.

These seasons are rare in F1, and if Verstappen can accomplish it, this will exhibit the kind of consistency that has become second nature for the Red Bull driver.

#3 Lewis Hamilton's elusive win

Lewis Hamilton has been close to winning races multiple times this season, but none of them were as close as the one in Austin. Mercedes had the pace to match Max Verstappen throughout the race, but in all fairness, pitting for Hard tires in the last stint left Hamilton exposed as he could not mount a challenge to Verstappen and was easily overtaken.

Sir @LewisHamilton on becoming a knight! https://t.co/W2YwbRUc1A

At the 2022 F1 Mexican GP, the Mercedes driver knows that the car should be competitive. If there is a track where Lewis Hamilton could sneak through and pick up a win, then it has to be the race in Mexico.

Form Guide

In Form

That P2 result in Austin was the best drive by Lewis Hamilton in the second half of the season. The driver was peerless all weekend as he qualified well and could keep Verstappen in sight for most of the race.

The Mercedes driver could have tried a more tenacious defense against Max Verstappen for the lead, but other than that, heading to Mexico, Lewis Hamilton's confidence is sky high as he would be one of the contenders for the win at the 2022 F1 Mexican GP.

Out of form

Remember how George Russell was looked at as the successor of Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes? It's about time we slam the brakes on that thought. The young British driver was very impressed in his first season with Mercedes. Having said that, Russell has been playing catch-up since the race in Canada when Lewis Hamilton finally stopped running the experimental setups.

First of all, apologies to Carlos for T1. He deserved more today and it was a misjudgement on my part. A tough race from that point on with damage to the front wing, but P5 and fastest lap nevertheless. Congrats to LH on the podium for the team. Three to go: let's keep pushing. https://t.co/F804atFL43

The second half of the season has not seen him outqualify Lewis Hamilton even once, and slowly but steadily, doubts are starting to creep in about whether Russell could be considered the next leader at Mercedes.

2022 F1 Mexican GP: Predictions

Who wins the race?

This F1 Mexican GP weekend will not be without its fair share of contenders. Even though the track characteristics could fool you into thinking that a low downforce setup is crucial for success here, the answer is the opposite. We're racing at high altitudes this weekend, so the teams will pack as much downforce as possible on the cars.

With that win, Max Verstappen equals Michael Schumacher's record of 13 wins in a single season...

Huge congratulations to him 👏 https://t.co/lHnRsFX1zt

Even though there is a possibility that we could see a three-way battle between Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes, it's hard to look beyond the champion this season. Max Verstappen has not only been the complete package this season, he's been performing at a level unmatched by anyone else. We're picking the 2022 F1 World Champion to win the F1 Mexican GP.

Surprise of the weekend (Team)

The McLaren vs Alpine battle has hogged all the limelight in the last few races, but one team has been surging brilliantly in the midfield. Aston Martin has been one of the more consistent performers in the second half of the season. For the Enstone-based squad, the key has been the team's ability to understand the package better.

At the 2022 F1 Mexican GP, the excessive drag produced by the Aston Martin on the straights would not be too much of a detriment. To add to this, being the best midfield car in Austin should make Aston Martin one of the teams worth keeping an eye on.

Surprise of the weekend (Driver)

Sebastian Vettel has had an underrated season. His qualifying sessions have suffered at times, but in the race, he has been, more often than not, the benchmark at Aston Martin. The German was on his way to a giant killing P7, resulting in Austin, but a poor pitstop destroyed those hopes.

E há 9 anos Sebastian Vettel se tornava tetracampeão e fazia uma das comemorações mais icônicas que já vimos!

https://t.co/TivWSxzIOP

At the 2022 F1 Mexican GP, there is potential for Aston Martin to be the fastest midfield car this weekend, the German will be hoping to make the most of it.

Disappointment of the weekend (Team)

Ferrari's early-season form almost seems like a thing of the past. The team had an impressive one-lap and long-run pace early in the season. The upgrades introduced by the team have seen the car lose a chunk of its one-lap pace and degrade tires faster than its competitors.

𝗥𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗗 𝟮𝟬/𝟮𝟮 | #MexicoGP 🇲🇽

Racing 2000m above sea level as we head to Mexico City for this year’s #F1ESTA 🥳
Be sure to follow the official @ScuderiaFerrari channels for the latest updates 📱

Cover art by Gianmarco Veronesi ➡️ bit.ly/MexicoGP2022_C…

#essereFerrari 🔴 https://t.co/eakQSObe7J

The race in Austin was the prime example of that as, during the last stint, it was clear to everyone that Leclerc could match Verstappen's speed early in the stint. As soon as the stint length increased, Leclerc's times dropped, and he was out of contention for a possible win.

The 2022 F1 Mexican GP is expected to be a 3-way battle between Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes. With Ferrari still suffering with long-run speed, expect the Italian squad to fall back as the third-fastest team during the F1 Mexican GP.

Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)

Sergio Perez hopes to put together a flawless weekend at his home race and become the first Mexican to win the F1 Mexican GP. Having said that, the challenge he faces in this race is multifold. Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes are expected to be very close in qualifying. With Sergio Perez tending to struggle on a one-lap pace, this could mean a lower starting position for the Mexican.

Additionally, the 2022 F1 Mexican GP does not tend to be a race where tires are a limiting factor. The Red Bull driver would have to pass a few cars on the track to score points, and a win seems like a long shot. Anything less than a win would seem like a disappointment for Sergio Perez, and he might be on his way to facing one this weekend.