Why there's method/paranoia to Max Verstappen's madness when it comes to his battle with Lando Norris
Max Verstappen's on-track battles with Lando Norris have gotten extra spicy recently. The race in Austin saw the Red Bull pull off a masterful defense against the McLaren driver and use the regulations to his advantage.
In the eyes of many, the Red Bull driver was exploiting the gray areas in the driving regulations that have been handed out, but since that is something that accentuates the genius of Verstappen, the Dutch driver received plaudits on how he handled that situation.
As the F1 circus headed to Mexico, the momentum was on Verstappen's side but there was one thing that became abundantly clear during the race in Austin, the Red Bull driver's only focus was beating Norris. All he was aiming to do was finish ahead of his title rival.
While that did work like a charm in Austin, it worked against Verstappen in Mexico. We can talk about the validity of the moves or even the type of penalties that were doled out. But that's not the most interesting bit. The interesting bit is why Verstappen, despite a championship lead of 57 points with 5 races left, felt the need to go beyond his usual level of aggression in Mexico.
There are many who have dismissed these moves as 'Max just being Max' but that would be the incorrect description of events. Max Verstappen is not an impulsive driver who does not think through each of his moves. He knows very well what he's doing and why he's doing it.
That brings us to the question of why he's doing it. Why is Verstappen willing to toe the line of what's 'racing' and what's 'dirty' when it comes to his on-track battles with Lando Norris? Well, the answer is multi-faceted.
Max Verstappen has realized that the Red Bull will be the 3rd-fastest car from now
The upgrade at Austin was certainly a step forward, and Max Verstappen does look more in sync with the car than was the case earlier. With that being said, there's no escaping the fact that the car lacks pace.
It's not got the performance of a McLaren or a Ferrari, and while the single-lap pace is something that's helped Verstappen start the race at the sharp end, he's fallen back as the race has progressed.
At each of the last four tracks, it is highly likely that Red Bull would either be the third or the fourth-fastest car during a weekend. For Verstappen, that's a worrying proposition. A straightforward weekend from him would mean a P5 behind both McLarens and Ferraris. If Lando wins in one of these weekends, we're looking at a 15-point swing.
This is precisely why the Red Bull driver has seemingly made it his mission to compromise the McLaren driver's race as much as possible.
The next 3 tracks
The next 3 tracks are where the situation gets even more worrying for Lando Norris. Last season in Brazil, McLaren was already blindingly fast, and Norris finished just a few seconds behind Max Verstappen.
The Dutch driver having a faster car than the British counterpart is highly unlikely. After Brazil, we have Qatar and Las Vegas. The track in the Middle East is not only going to be strong for McLaren, but a team like Mercedes that excels in those situations would also be in the picture and maybe even faster than Red Bull. Qatar could be the biggest worry for Verstappen as that is one weekend where the driver could truly leak a lot of points to Norris.
Finally talking about Las Vegas, a low-downforce track might help Red Bull to an extent, but if Monza or even Mexico were anything to go by, McLaren and Ferrari should still have the edge.
To summarize, Verstappen expects Red Bull to be third-fastest in Brazil, third or fourth-fastest in Qatar, and second or third-fastest in Las Vegas. He risks losing quite a chunk in these three races and it will take a monumental effort to still keep the damage to a minimum.
The looming power unit penalty
The final point and probably the most important is the looming power unit penalty for Verstappen. The Dutch driver was very close to taking one in Mexico but the lack of competitiveness meant that he opted against it. With that being said, the team is more or less getting ready to take a new power unit in the next race in Brazil. That's a 5-place grid penalty, which further compromises where Max Verstappen would start his race.
Out of the next four races, there's one race where the Dutch driver is already expecting to be compromised. You add that to the already suffering competitiveness of the car and you see a scenario where Verstappen's lead of 47 points might not be enough for the last four races.
If the two drivers finish the last four races based on what their cars are supposedly capable of, then Lando Norris takes the title. Max Verstappen knows that very well, and he's made that calculation already.
This is precisely why the Dutch driver has now resorted to a slightly different tactic of compromising Lando's race as much as he can for now. There's a method to the madness/paranoia when it comes to Verstappen and at this stage, it explains why the driver is willing to maybe toe the line more than he used to in the past.