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10 most clinical goal-scorers in Europe's top leagues since 2016

Cristiano Ronaldo (13th) and Robert Lewandowski (16) fail to make the top 10 based on their goals over xG
Cristiano Ronaldo (13th) and Robert Lewandowski (16) fail to make the top 10 based on their goals over xG

The rise of analytics in sport over the past few years has been absolutely tremendous, with data also playing a critical role in a goal-based sport like football.

Nearly every aspect of the game is now evaluated using large data sets and various parameters. The sport is now run by data - be it buying players based on statistics or training against teams based on their performance statistics.

Football being a goal-based sport, various goal-related statistics are carefully analysed to determine several factors such as a player or team's attacking capabilities, etc. When it comes to goal-scoring aspects, xG is one of the most popular and relevant metrics.

xG stands for 'expected goals' and is essentially a measure of how many goals a player or team is expected to score based on the number of shots taken.

It also takes into consideration a plethora of details such as shot angle, type of shot and distance from goal, among others. In other words, xG is the best indicator of how lethal or prolific a particular player or team is.

A good xG score would usually mean a player or team is clinical and can score a good amount of goals with a relatively low number of chances and shots.

In this listicle, we look at ten players who have the highest % over xG; that is a measure of how many goals they have scored beyond the number of goals they were expected to based on data analytics, thereby highlighting how clinical they have been.

This list is based on a study carried out by The Independent, where the top goal-scorers from Europe's top leagues were analysed and compared in terms of their % over xG.

Ten most clinical goal-scorers from Europe's top leagues

The data used in the study involves the goals scored by the top goal-scorers in Europe's top leagues from August 2016 onwards.

Notably, neither Cristiano Ronaldo (13th) nor Robert Lewandowski (16th) makes the top 10.

Without further ado, let us have a look at who makes the top ten.


#10 Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Premier League, Serie A)

Goals scored: 39.

% over xG: 9.18.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic celebrates after scoring for AC Milan.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic celebrates after scoring for AC Milan.

Since August 2016, Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Manchester United in the Premier League and AC Milan in Serie A.

He has scored 39 league goals across both competitions since then.

The 39-year-old has scored 9.18% more goals than he was expected to (xG).

In the ongoing season, Ibrahimovic has already scored 12 goals in nine Serie A matches.


#9 Mohamed Salah (Serie A, Premier League)

Goals scored: 101.

% over xG: 11.81.

Mohamed Salah celebrates after scoring for Liverpool.
Mohamed Salah celebrates after scoring for Liverpool.

Mohamed Salah played for AS Roma in Serie A in the 2016-17 season (scoring 15 goals) before moving to Liverpool in June 2017.

Since then, Salah has been of the most prolific goal-scorers in the Premier League, scoring 86 goals in 126 matches. The 28-year-old has scored 13 times in 18 matches in the ongoing season despite enduring a recent drought.

Since August 2016, Mohamed Salah has scored a total of 101 goals, scoring 11.81% goals more than he was expected to.

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