4 reasons why Argentina will not win Copa America 2024
While EURO 2024 takes place in Europe, Argentina are making preparations to defend their Copa America trophy across the pond in the USA. La Albiceleste are easily firm favorites to win, and why wouldn't they be?
They have enjoyed an impressive run in recent tournaments, winning the Copa America 2020 and following it up with a World Cup trophy in 2022. They are arguably in their golden age, since Diego Maradona led them to World Cup glory in 1986. They enjoyed wins in Copa America in 1991 and 1993, before dwindling for nearly 30 years.
However, Argentina have returned, with two trophies coming in the space of three years, and they look like strong contenders to add another to the cabinet. They are the best in the world, based on FIFA's rankings, and with Lionel Messi in their ranks, it's easy to see why.
Opta's supercomputer has La Albiceleste as the clear favorites to win this tournament, giving them a 30.8% chance (via Guardian). They've also been given an unbelievable 50.5% to reach the final. However, let's play the devil's advocate and look at five reasons they will not win Copa America 2024.
#4 Argentina are facing strong competition in Copa America
Opta's supercomputer essentially simulated the tournament an impressive 10,000 times, which saw La Albiceleste reach the final more than half the time. However, other teams in the competition are strong contenders too.
Brazil lost to them in the final last time out, with only one goal separating both sides. They will also need to be wary of teams like Uruguay, who could well cause an upset, against all odds.
#3 Argentina have an aging squad
This shouldn't be too much of a problem, but in the last Copa America, Lionel Messi was 33 years old, and so were Angel di Maria and Nicolas Otamendi. Now, the trio are in their late 30s, and they aren't even the oldest in the squad, with goalkeeper Franco Armani sitting at 37 years of age.
Sure, there are a few young players in the squad, including Alejandro Garnacho and Valentin Carboni. However, there are only six players aged 25 and below, with the average age of the squad sitting at 28.5 years. This could hamper their chances against teams like Brazil, who have just five players over 30. The Selecao also have a lower average age of 25.7 years.
#2 Underdogs in Argentina's group
Argentina are in Group A in the Copa America, where they will face Peru, Chile, and Canada. They are certainly expected to see off these teams, but they have had some problems doing so in the past. Their 2-1 loss in the World Cup against Saudi Arabia stands out as a sore thumb.
La Albiceleste could potentially face problems within their group this time around. All their opponents will face them as underdogs, and they will be itching to provide a very strong defensive performance against Argentina's strong attack. Time will tell if this could be enough to stall their advance into the knockout stages.
#1 Pressure and high expectations
Argentina are already widely touted as favorites to win the Copa America, and anything less will seem unacceptable, especially with their trophy-winning form. The pressure on the team will be high, and this could potentially affect their performance.
Lionel Messi will also likely be playing his last international tournament. While he could still play at the World Cup in 2026, it seems this will be his last Copa America, and the pressure to go out with a bang can put La Albiceleste in trouble.