Analysing the opening fixtures of the 2015/16 Premier League
The Premier League season came to a head less than a month ago and already teams are looking to the upcoming campaign after the fixture list was announced on Wednesday. Clubs up and down the country will be planning for the start to the season in the hope of hitting the ground running to boost their chances of achieving their goal.
There may be a little under two months until the start of the season, but to whet fans’ appetites, we at WhoScored.com have analysed the opening six fixtures of the season and, using our unique rating system, have taken the opportunity to determine how sides could fare using respective home and away ratings from the 2014/15 season.
For example, Arsenal’s first game of the season is at home to West Ham United, so we will take the Hammers’ away rating from last season (6.94) to determine how difficult the Gunners’ start to the campaign could be. Along with the other five teams they will face - Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Newcastle, Stoke and Chelsea - we will work out the average rating of Arsenal’s opening 6 opponents and the team with the highest average will equate to the toughest start.
The 3 newly promoted teams - Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich - may have gained a rating from last season, but the gulf in class between the Championship and Premier League means it would be unfair to compare the exploits of the 3 teams to be promoted from England’s second tier to those who remained in England’s highest division. Therefore, should a team play any of these sides in their opening 6 fixtures - Aston Villa, who travel to Bournemouth on the opening day of the season, for example - the average rating will be taken from the remaining 5 opponents.
Using this method, it’s Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool (7.23) who face the toughest start to the season. The Reds kick off their campaign at Stoke City, who overcame Liverpool 6-1 on the final day of last term. Liverpool may welcome Bournemouth, West Ham and Norwich to Anfield in the opening weeks of the coming season, but face daunting trips to Arsenal and rivals Manchester United, whose home ratings - 7.49 and 7.34, respectively - were two of the three best in the Premier League last season.
The Merseyside outfit won only 2 of their opening 6 league games last season, hindering their chances of securing a top-4 finish, and Rodgers knows he needs his side to get off to a stronger start when the campaign gets underway in August.
A repeat of the humiliating loss at the Britannia would not sit well with the fans or the board, and Rodgers must settle on a system to bring the best out of his players if his side are to come away from Stoke with maximum points on the opening day.
Conversely, it’s newly-promoted Bournemouth and Swansea (6.97) who have the easiest starts to next season, according to WhoScored’s rating system. The Cherries may face Liverpool at Anfield on the second day of the season, but have a relatively comfortable start to their debut campaign in England’s top tier.
Home meetings with Aston Villa, Leicester City and Sunderland - three teams whose average ratings away from home (6.78, 6.89 and 6.93, respectively) were all in the bottom half of the rankings - presents them with the ideal opportunity to take all the spoils in their first three games of the campaign at Dean Court.
Swansea, meanwhile, may start their season away at defending champions Chelsea, but their fixtures ease up after the trip to Stamford Bridge. Home meetings with, Newcastle United, Manchester United and Everton will be seen as winnable, with Garry Monk hopeful of exploiting home advantage in order to improve 8th-placed finish from last season.
Understandably, the fixture that draws the attention of supporters comes in game week two when Manchester City host Chelsea. The battle of last season’s top two may not affect whether City can wrestle the title away from the Blues in the long run, but will give a good indication on the pairing’s ambitions for the campaign.
Newcastle and West Ham will both start the season with new managers at the helm with Steve McClaren and Slaven Bilic succeeding John Carver and Sam Allardyce at the respective helms. The duo are both set to endure tough starts to the upcoming season, with the average rating of McClaren’s opponents a testing 7.14. Bilic does not fare much better, with the rating of the opposition teams in his debut managerial campaign standing at 7.12.
Bournemouth may have - statistically - a comfortable start to the Premier League season, but the same cannot be said of Norwich (7.05) and Watford (7.04), whose returns to the top division of English football will test their resolve.
Either way, though, the promoted trio are tipped to inject excitement into the Premier League, especially if Eddie Howe and Alex Neil can get their teams playing as well as they did in the Championship. It will, though, be a baptism of fire for Quique Flores and his Watford side after the Spaniard was announced as new Hornets manager earlier this month.
Only time will tell on how the 2015/16 Premier League campaign pans out, but here's hoping it lives up to the potential to be one of the most enthralling to date.