Champions League’s pretenders and contenders

Defending champions Bayern Munich are the favourites to lift their 6th European Cup

For most people, when the group stage of the Champions League kicks off, the competition really begins.

This year’s groups are very balanced and there isn’t an obvious ‘Group of Death’ like we had last year with Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax, and Real Madrid. The Barcelona, Celtic, Ajax, and AC Milan grouping looks dangerous, but there is a bigger gap then many realise between those teams. Almost every group has solid contenders and should likely go to plan, but the tournament always offers its fair share of surprises. Yet I see the group stage going pretty much to plan.

So who are the teams with a serious chance this season? I’ve broken down the teams into four groups; Usual Suspects, Cautious Contenders, Gotta Have a Break and Pure Pretenders. If I do not mention a side, I would say they fall into the ‘Snowball’s Chance in Hell’ group. I won’t bother to write up that section!

Usual Suspects

This group consists of sides that no doubt have the best chance to win Europe’s most prized club tournament. I’m not likely to surprise anyone with this portion of the list.

Bayern Munich would be my favourites for victory. Their depth and experience make them the odds on favourites for me. Perhaps the biggest factor going against them is that no team has retained the famous Champions League trophy since the competition was renamed from the European Cup in 1992. I also do not believe the gap is very big between the other two sides in this grouping, but still a solid favourite.

Barcelona would be my second pick. They have an amazing strike team upfront with the addition of Neymar and the improved play of Alexis Sanchez. If they can maintain fitness and tighten up their defensive tactics, they should be closer to Bayern than they were last year. I am a believer that they do not need defenders, but a rework of the defensive tactics compared to what they did last season. My main contention would be to restrict Jordi Alba from playing up so high.

Real Madrid are a solid third choice for me. Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach for this team and will surely right a ship that went off course last season. Their squad is as deep yet full of quality as it’s possible to be, and have the ability to rebound from injuries with little problem. There are just a lot of factors that worry me about a slip up. Iker Casillas might not be missed in goals as much as he once was, but his leadership will me massively missed. Introducing Gareth Bale into the starting 11, Xabi Alonso being out for a prolonged amount of time, a shift in playing style, no Mesut Ozil in the midfield, and the new players like Isco hitting a slump as they adjust in the new club are all possible massive factors.

I would say these three teams are much better than the rest of the pack. They have very few holes, but an amazing depth of talent. They all have experience in the tournament with their core group of players. Real stayed in third for me because of the fact that they have not won the tournament in the past few years like the other two and maybe that’s the only reason. The last 16 could see any combination of an early tournament meeting between these sides. I think it would be better to see them meet in a two legged situation rather than the one off final so that we can get a decisive winner as we did last year when Bayern and Barca met. Even though Dortmund provided a challenge in the final, I felt Bayern really stamped themselves in the semi-final as the best in the world, having destroyed Barca.

Cautious Contenders

This group is comprised of teams that can be dangerous, but might have a fatal flaw in their DNA that could cost them at some stage. I do not believe these sides would be the favourite in all of their match ups, but could beat the top three teams on my list at any stage in the tournament. Manchester United top this group for me. They have finally added some quality midfield play in Marouane Fellaini and a healthy Shinji Kagawa. This has to be the season Wayne Rooney stays healthy. They have depth up front with Danny Welbeck and Javier Hernandez, but I just wish they offered more depth at the back. They were a red card away from getting past Real Madrid last year. My concerns are simple; fitness, the new coach, and Robin van Persie showing up for the big matches. He disappeared in big spots during games last year.

Juventus are in this group, but I’ve already questioned myself by having them this high. They had zero strike power last season but did very well, and this year they have added Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente. I worry that age in the middle of the field and running the new players against polished sides might find them a bit overwhelmed and out of sorts. I haven’t liked the vibe Antonio Conte has given off regarding repeating the title win in Italy, let alone performing better in the Champions League.

Manchester City would be next. I am not concerned by their slow start in the league (until the Manchester derby). For me they have made some great acquisitions and with time, they will play better. Just look at yesterday’s Manchester derby! I’m just concerned about on the field leadership. They have a lot of doers, but who is the focused presence for them on the pitch that pulls the team through hard times? My top three teams have multiple players that can keep their side focused, but who does that for City?