Chelsea FC and why the title race isn't over yet
After a comprehensive 3-1 victory over Arsenal this past weekend, Chelsea FC’s season came full circle. A season that started with uncertain victories over Watford and West Ham courtesy of late goals, before it all began to fall apart for Antonio Conte.
The 2-2 draw with Swansea was followed up by demoralising losses to Liverpool and Arsenal and with Chelsea going winless in the league in September, mumblings of Conte’s sacking began. But that 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, which threatened to once again push Chelsea down the table instead saw an upturn in fortunes.
In the second half, with the game out of Chelsea’s reach, Conte decided to go back to what he does best. He switched from the static 4-2-3-1 that the Chelsea team had been playing for years to the dynamic and daring (in the premier league anyway) 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1.
Conte’s success with a three man backline is well documented from his successful time at Juventus and his overachieving Italian team. The switch to three at the back allowed Chelsea to regain their defensive solidity and was perfectly designed to hide and nullify the team’s weaknesses.
The centre of the park now had three defenders as the load was lightened on the ageing legs of Gary Cahill. A defence that had begun to crumble under Jose Mourinho was resurrected by Conte and afforded extra protection thanks to the industrious and efficient pairing of N’golo Kante and Nemanja Matic.
The attack was reinvigorated by the wing backs- Marcos Alonso and the greatly improved Victor Moses as Chelsea went on a fantastic run of results including a 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United and comeback wins over Manchester City and Tottenham.
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The record 13 match winning run was ended by Spurs, but one thing was clear- Chelsea had become Champions-elect. Subsequent results against Liverpool and Arsenal have only served to improve the mood, but as Don Conte has consistently been saying- the title race isn’t over.
Both Wenger and Guardiola have attempted mind games by saying they were ‘fighting for second’ in a bid to try and get complacency to set in, but an experienced manager like Conte is all too wary of that.
Despite all of Antonio Conte’s hard work and the remarkable transition of David Luiz from a risk-taking centre back prone to mistakes to a solid leader, some weaknesses still persist, weaknesses that could still trigger a Chelsea collapse-
Slow and exposed left flank
The left-hand side axis of Gary Cahill and Marcos Alonso is clearly the weak link in the Chelsea defence. Both the defenders are slow, prone to the odd error and therefore, targets for the opposition to exploit. Manchester City did this very well as Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling destroyed them side before Gary Cahill put the ball into his own net.
Chelsea may have come back to win that game, but not all defences will be as welcoming as that of Manchester City. To his credit, Conte identified this weakness and has instructed Nemanja Matic to guard this area of the pitch especially when Alonso bombs forward as part of Chelsea’s 5-pronged attack.
When hit on the counter, Matic switches onto the left side of the pitch, leaving a gaping hole in the middle.
No Kante, no Party
Some astute business in the transfer window means that N’golo Kante is in there, doing the work of two as he bosses the entire midfield. Should Kante get injured, Chelsea will struggle. The only game he has missed in this formation in the league was Chelsea’s 3-0 win over Bournemouth.
On the face of it, it looks like a relatively straightforward win, but it wasn’t. The midfield of Matic and Fabregas was repeatedly dissected and dribbled past by loanee Jack Wilshere, who has had a fantastic season in the South of England. An injury to N’golo Kante and Chelsea’s season might derail.
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Propensity for individual errors
Another interesting note from Chelsea’s season is that despite the team managing to put together a fantastic run of results on the back of rock solid defence, they are still very vulnerable to shooting themselves in the foot. Luiz has looked decidedly composed this season, but the Arsenal game exposed him slightly.
He is still a little too adventurous for his own good as shown by him stepping out of defence and then not regaining shape but rather following the ball past his own wing back. Arsenal would score from the subsequent cross with Giroud left unmarked because of Luiz’s little adventure.
Gary Cahill had a couple of backpass brainfarts earlier in this season and is often made to look uncomfortable on the ball when put under pressure by the opposing team. The same can be said of Thibaut Courtois, who struggles with distribution.
Weakness against crosses
The last reason which must have been noticed by many managers is Chelsea’s difficulty in dealing with crosses. This issue is one where almost every member of the back five is at fault. The two wing backs are good at tracking opposition wingers but are quite poor at actually stopping crosses from entering the box.
On the left wing, with Eden Hazard never tracking back, Marcos Alonso is often let 1 v 2. This draws out Gary Cahill to support him which leads to a lack of height in the middle and puts Chelsea at a disadvantage.
The first game this was really noticeable was the Stoke City game in which Peter Crouch dominated the Chelsea defence and only quality on the other end of the pitch bailed them out. Tottenham Hotspur best exposed Chelsea’s system in their 2-0 win over the blues in earlier this season.
The Chelsea defence was pressed and not given time on the ball, leading to wayward passes and a blunting of their attack due to a lack of delivery. Both goals saw Christian Eriksen whip in a cross to the far post where Dele Alli scored two headers.
Gary Cahill stepped out to stop Eriksen from getting space, but after his booking, that stopped and the Dane was unchecked. Dele Alli then isolated Azpilicueta and Moses, which led to Chelsea conceding twice. Giroud and Wijnaldum, both scored headed goals, a glaring chink in Chelsea’s armour.
In conclusion, Chelsea winning the league is not set in stone. We have seen such collapses before, Newcastle United come to mind. If Chelsea’s weakness against crosses is exploited, then they will struggle to keep up this pace.
An unfortunate injury to N’golo Kante will result in the team falling apart and being picked off by all. Football is an unpredictable game, and the Premier League its most unpredictable beast. After all, Yogi Berra rightly said, ‘it ain't over till its over.’