EPL Preview: Southampton vs Arsenal

The last time that we clashed with Southampton, the Saints were the talk of the town, having conceded just six goals in twelve matches, and they sat in third place on the table on the strength of that start. However, their trip to the Emirates not only ended in inglorious defeat but also sent the Saints into a tailspin, one in which they would win only one of their next nine matches while shipping eighteen goals, fading to ninth place in the process.

Since then, however, the Saints have righted the ship a bit, claiming three wins and a draw from their last five, although this does include FA Cup wins over Burnley and Yeovil. Dismiss these if you will, but wins of any kind do generate momentum, and the Saints might, if anything, be looking for a bit of revenge after the manner of their loss back in November. I allude, of course, to Giroud’s dispossessing of Arthur Boruc for the first goal, one that unlocked a previously tight affair and put Southampton on the back foot for the rest of the afternoon. Simply put, it’s not the kind of gaffe we can look forward to, at least not as a strategy. Despite their recent slump, they still boast the Prem’s fourth-tightest defense, conceding 25 goals in 22 matches to trail only Arsenal (19), Chelsea (20), and Everton (20). As such and by contrast with our last outing against Coventry, goals might be hard to come by.

Speaking of the Coventry match, Arsenal come into the match having won seven matches in a row, conceding only two goals along the way. A well-rested squad will make the trip to St. Mary’s as Fabianksi, Jenkinson, Gnabry, and Bendtner started, as did Oxlade-Chamberlain.

The Ox, of course, came through Southampton’s academy and is now drawing comparisons to the likes of Steven Gerrard as Arsene Wenger considers fashioning him into more of a central midfielder. Oxlade-Chamberlain’s homecoming will no doubt be bitter-sweet and, should he start, prompt a mixture of regret and pride among the Saints’ faithful.

However, sentiment plays only a small role in these situations, and neither side is likely to grant the other much of an advantage. Mauricio Pochettino has the Saints playing an attractive, aggressive style, and their preferred 4-2-3-1 formation mirrors our own, so it comes down to quality. Without slighting the likes of Shaw, Lallana, or Rodriguez, among others, our lads know that they have to seize an advantage wherever they can.

The bad news for Southampton is that they’ll go in without Osvaldo, banned after a dust-up with a teammate José Fonte. More significantly, however, may be the returns to form of Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla, each of whom bagged braces in their last starts. With them prowling the left flank and Giroud, who scored two of his own against Southampton in November, the Saints may find themselves on the back-foot for much of the evening. Stout as they’ve been, it’s hard to resist the notion that Arsenal can come away with all three points.

Last 3 Meetings

Arsenal 2-0 Southampton (23.11.2013)
Southampton 1-1 Arsenal (1.1.2013)
Arsenal 6-1 Southampton (15.9.2012)

Factfile

Southampton conceded just five goals in eleven EPL matches but have conceded four times that many in the same stretch—starting with the 2-0 loss to Arsenal in November.
The last time that Southampton defeated Arsenal at St. Mary’s was 23 November 2002.
Only one team has scored more than one goal against Arsenal in the last 21 matches.
Arsenal have scored more goals from headers (9) than any other EPL side.
Giroud’s two goals from the November match are enough to make him the current leader for goals against Southampton.

Injuries

We’ll go in without Walcott (knee) and Diaby (knee), of course, but will also be without Arteta (calf/shin), Vermaelen (knee), and Ramsey (hip). Southampton will have to play without Osvaldo (suspension), Wanyama (calf/shin), Ramirez (ankle), and Lovren (ankle).

Possible Starting XI

Szczesny; Monreal, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Sagna; Flamini, Ramsey; Podolski, Ozil, Gnabry; Giroud.

Expect a tight affair with chances few and far between, but for as resolute as Southampton may be, they may not be able to hold off an Arsenal side that has scored twelve goals in its last five matches.

Goonersphere’s Prediction

Southampton 0-2 Arsenal