Experts predict how many points are needed to win EPL title and finish in top four this season
It is safe to say that there has never quite been a surprising Premier League season like the current 2015/16 season. The established order has been upset time and again over the past eight months and the competitiveness of the league has been highlighted almost every week.
The traditional top four of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United are scattered all over the top half of the table. Teams such as West Ham United and Southampton have cut the gap and performed well against top teams, especially Slaven Bilic’s Hammers.
Tottenham Hotspur are in second place ahead of north London rivals Arsenal while Manchester City are fourth. United are sixth while defending champions Chelsea are in 10th!
But the biggest surprise was Leicester City. Down in 20th place a year ago, the Foxes now find themselves in first place with a five-point lead over the Spurs. Claudio Ranieri came, he saw and looks all set to conquer England after missing out with Chelsea more than a decade ago.
| # | Team | Games Played | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester City | 31 | 66 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur | 31 | 61 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 30 | 55 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 30 | 51 |
| 5 | West Ham | 30 | 50 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 30 | 50 |
EPL champions will be crowned if they get 76 points
Decision Technology, a UK-based company that deals with sports analytics, analysed how many points would be required for a team to be crowned champions this season. By their prediction, table toppers Leicester City need just 10 more points from seven games.
The company fed a number of simulations into an algorithm to deduce how many points are required to win the league and the magic number is 76.
The last 10 seasons have seen an average of 84.7 points needed to be crowned champions. Chelsea’s triumph in 2005/06 saw them win the title with 91 points while the lowest total was Manchester United in 2010/11 when the Red Devils won with just 80 points.
If 76 points are enough to win the title this season, that would only have given a team a top four spot in the 2007/08 season. And Decision Technology predicted that this season would see teams who get at least 67 points finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League – the same points Arsenal needed in 2005/06 to finish fourth and make the Champions League playoffs.
| Season | Champions | Points to win | Points for Top 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | Chelsea | 91 | 67 |
| 2006/07 | Manchester United | 89 | 68 |
| 2007/08 | Manchester United | 87 | 76 |
| 2008/09 | Manchester United | 90 | 72 |
| 2009/10 | Chelsea | 86 | 70 |
| 2010/11 | Manchester United | 80 | 68 |
| 2011/12 | Manchester City | 89 | 69 |
| 2012/13 | Manchester United | 89 | 73 |
| 2013/14 | Manchester City | 86 | 79 |
| 2014/15 | Chelsea | 87 | 70 |