FIFA World Cup 2014: Germany v Portugal - Tactical battles and probable lineups
The only time these two teams met in a World Cup match prior to this year’s edition was in the 3rd place play-off in 2006. Germany inspired by a young 21 year old named Bastian Schweinsteiger ran out 3-1 winners. Only 2 of the 11 eleven Germans (Lahm and Schweinsteiger) who started that match are likely to line up in Arena Fonte Nova, whereas Ronaldo is the only survivor for the Portuguese.
Germany Tactics
In the last world cup in South Africa, the German team was widely applauded for its fast, attractive counter attacking football. But the semifinal defeat to Spain showcased a basic flaw in their game plan. The team having been built for fast breaks could not break down the Spanish side once they had gone ahead. This prompted a change in tactics from German coach Joachim Low. The present German team is much more proactive without the ball, pressing high up the pitch and more comfortable in controlling the game through possession.
Their focus on retaining the ball can be seen from the fact that the only recognized striker in the squad is 36 year old Miroslav Klose, and he is likely to start from the bench. The Germans are likely to use Mario Gotze as false-nine (the role Messi played to devastating effect in the Barcelona’s 2010-11 team). Most of their goal threat will come from the wide attackers in the 4-2-3-1 system. Muller is likely to play from the right of the 3, whereas Schurrle (instead of the injured Reus) will likely take up the left attacking position. Ozil will also look to combine with Gotze as well as run beyond him to provide goal threat. On paper, this is a wonderfully fluid attacking front four, but Gotze has never fully convinced in the role for Germany or Bayern.
The midfield two will likely be Schweinsteiger and one of Kroos/Khedira. Most likely Khedira will play against the better sides as he offers more defensive protection than Kroos. The one position of doubt for the Germans is left back. There is no obvious choice for the role. It will most likely be the Dortmund second choice left back Erik Durm.
Portugal Tactics
Portugal haven’t changed much from the side that lost 1-0 to Germany in 2012 Euro Championships. The only change from that side is likely to be the young midfielder William Carvalho in place of Miguel Veloso in their standard 4-3-3. The major problem for Portugal has remained the same for over a decade now, namely the lack of a good striker. This hasn’t been as big a problem due to the brilliance of their wide attackers, but against the top teams, their attack can become one-dimensional because of the lack of quality upfront.
Their focus on attacking through wide areas is understandable considering that they have the Ballon d’or holder playing there. Although, this Portugal side has quality players in other positions as well, their progress will mainly depend on how well Ronaldo plays. The whole side is built to play around him. Helder Postiga’s main role in the side is to hassle defenders and create space for Ronaldo to cut inside and shoot. As was seen in the playoff win over Sweden, where Ronaldo scored a quite brilliant away hat-trick, if given room to counter attack, Portugal can be devastating. Nani, who is coming off an injury prone and lackluster season at Man United, should start on the right. On his day, he can be a brilliant dribbler as well as finisher, but his form right now is questionable.
Portugal’s midfield is another strong area. Moutinho is a genuinely top class playmaker, and will be main man looking to provide through balls to the runners from wide positions. Carvalho, is a highly energetic player who is equally comfortable at tackling and spraying intelligent balls out wide to start counter attacks. Miereles will play more of a box to box and his main job will be to harry the opposition and then run beyond the double pivot of Schweinsteiger/Khedira to support their attack. Portugal’s defence is strong but can be susceptible to Pace, especially Bruno Alves. Coentrao is very good in supporting the attack but can be suspect positionally. This, combined with Ronaldo’s lack of tracking back, can result in problems for the Portuguese.
Conclusion:
Germany is likely to control possession and try to drag the Portuguese defence out of position with clever interchange between their front four, while Portugal are more likely to counter at speed from wide areas.
The two key battles will likely be 1) How Pepe and Alves handle the movement of the German forwards as Gotze can drag one of them up the field to open space for Muller and Schurrle. 2) How Germans handle the threat of Ronaldo on the counter.
Probable Line ups:
Germany: Neuer, Lahm, Mertesacker, Boateng, Durm, Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Muller, Ozil , Schurrle, Gotze.
Portugal: Patricio, Periera, Pepe, Alves, Coentrao, Carvalho, Meireles, Moutinho, Nani, Ronaldo, Postiga