German affair at Wembley - A pie preview

Nobody saw it, no one even thought of it, but it is true now- it’s going to be an all-German affair at the UEFA Champions League final to be played at the New Wembley. Would it be the imperious Bavarians who have already made it here thrice in 4 years or would Klopp’s side continue their dream run and get the ultimate prize in world football.

The run-in to the final could not have been any more dramatic than this, for they have gone against the narrative to dethrone the two Spanish giants from the helm. For Bayern, they have had continued success at this level having played in 2 finals in the last three years only to falter at the last steps. Their enduring weakness has been counterattacking football which saw an unwavering Inter Milan and an unlikely Chelsea to win the European glory. They got a similar treatment from Dortmund who beat them at everything that was German last season. This season, however, Bayern have seemingly conquered their only weakness with a stronger defence, so much so that they have only shipped 18 goals this season in Bundesliga, having scored a whopping 98 for.

For Borussia Dortmund, ‘rags to riches’ would be a good way to put their success under Jurgen Klopp. They have been the darlings of soccer nerds and people who dislike rich clubs. Their high-tempo counterattacking football has earned praise from all quarters and the one-touch passing that they employ in doing so, is simply breath-taking. However, their window to compete at this level — at least in the short term — is closing. The confirmed move of Mario Götze, almost imminent departure of Lewandowski and the likely interest from big clubs in Mats Hummels during the summer means that Dortmund are certain to have a weaker squad next season. They’re beginning to erase massive debts from the last decade and Klopp will have money from transfer fees to reinvest in the squad, but their re-ascendency may take time.

GOTZE INJURED, DORTMUND’s NEW STRATEGY?

While Bayern have the luxury of a largely injury-free bench thanks to their deep squad, Dortmund’s attacking strength has been depleted due to their CAM, Mario Gotze having to pull out due to injury. In his absence, Klopp would have to advance Gundogan out of his holding midfield position. Without Gundogan, they can either pair up Sebastian Kehl and Sven Bender, or have loan signing Nuri Sahin play as holding CM with either of the former.  Let’s have a look at what both the combinations bode for the match.

CDM: BENDER-KEHL

If Klopp chooses to partner his holding midfield with Bender and Kehl, this will be a direct signal that Dortmund is going to play a straight up counterattack strategy with no bells or whistles. By placing his strongest ball winners in the centre, Dortmund should effectively neuter forward progress in this zone for Bayern congesting the mid and using the wings. This strategy would be a gamble at its best due to its 1-dimensional nature, and if Reus and Blaszczykowski fail at their wings then the game would hinge at the centre for Dortmund with Ilkay Gundogan up against both Schweinsteiger and Martinez, which is a hilarious thought.

CDM: SAHIN-BENDER/KEHL

This represents a more traditional ball-holder and ball-winner CDM combo. Sahin would be the stable distributive conduit who would look to combine with the creative Gundogan to create chances. Bayern would then play the way they have been playing this season against counter-attacking teams, using a high-press system with a strong defence. The midfield would then finally boil down to Sahin and Gundogan against Schweinstieger and Martinez, and given Sahin’s form this year, it will be very comforting for Bayern fans.

PREDICTION

The game would completely depend on the execution of Dortmund’s planning as Bayern’s strategy is as obvious as Guardiola being their coach next season. Both of these teams excel at wing play, and asking them to try and blunt either team is going to be a very tall order defensively. The battle for this is going to come down to the middle of the pitch and who can control the movement through it most effectively.

Psychic Elephant Nelly predicts a Bayern win and TRP concurs with that and goes on to predict a 3-1 Bayern win.

What’s your pick?