Microsoft’s Cortana predicts that Germany will win the FIFA World Cup 2014
Microsoft’s Cortana, the intelligent personal assistant on Windows Phone 8.1, has predicted that Germany will win the final of the FIFA World Cup 2014 against Argentina in Rio de Janeiro.
Cortana derives her name from an Artificial Intelligence character voiced by Jen Taylor in the Halo series. She is on a 14-0 streak so far and has got every match prediction of the knockout rounds right. She had predicted correctly the result of the semi-final between Argentina and Netherlands too.
She has surpassed even the famed Paul the Octopus who had predicted the 2010 World Cup results accurately eight times including the final. Paul supposedly was believed to be having psychic powers that helped him predict the results.
When asked ‘Who will win the match between Germany and Argentina?’ Cortana responds with "Probably Germany. But you never known what can happen in the beautiful game..." Other responses include "It's too early to say for sure, but I'd give Germany the edge over Argentina"
Cortana has also predicted Brazil to beat the Netherlands in the third place playoff on Saturday.
While Cortana is no psychic character, she depends on Microsoft’s Bing search engine specifically configured before the World Cup for predictions. Cortana is not only restricted to the World Cup or any other sporting event though; she has also predicted the outcomes of reality shows like American Idol and The Voice.
The Microsoft Prediction Model
Microsoft’s prediction model is based on an array of variables such as previous win/loss record, the strengths and weaknesses of teams, results in the qualifying stages of the competition and the margin of victory in the same.
Other elements which give one team an advantage over the other like the home conditions (e.g Brazil), proximity to home field (South American teams), playing surface (hybrid grass) and game-time weather conditions are also factored in. Microsoft also relies on the number of the people who bet on a specific team; the majority always wins right.
Microsoft’s rival Google though have fallen behind in the prediction stakes though. The Google Now feature on Android systems had got 8 out of 8 predictions right but incorrectly predicted the Germany v/s France quarter-final. However it did accurately predict the outcomes of both the semifinals.