Newcastle United have enough quality to beat the drop, regardless of Europa League distractions

Newcastle United has since long been accepted as one of the most supported clubs in England. With its passionate fan base, it is a club steeped in history and football lore. Newcastle fans are the most persevering, patient and of course one of the loudest in the Barclays Premier League. An interesting statistic is that when it comes to travelling around the country for matches, it is the Newcastle fans who spend the most and are the most mobile. And in all of Britain, only Manchester United and Arsenal have a higher average attendance than that of St. James’ Park.

For all their passion and love, Newcastle fans, since the last couple of generations, have never seen their team lift a major trophy. And over the years, there have been some legendary players for this side; Lee Clark, Alan Shearer and Les Ferdinand jump out from a list of notable names. Even if you count the Inter-Cities Fairies Cup (earlier form of Europa League), the last trophy that came to St. James’ Park was in 1969. The last time they came close was the 1997-98 season when they were defeated by a rampant Arsenal in the FA Cup final.

It is indeed true that cup competitions have a romance of their own. It gives all and sundry the chance to rise above their designated station as a club. As Geordies would painfully remember, they were knocked out consecutive times by championship side Brighton and Hove Albion in the FA Cup. Ask anyone in the Toon Army, and he/she will say without skipping a heartbeat that it is his/her dream to watch Newcastle lift a trophy, infact any trophy.

The ongoing Europa League gives them a perfect chance to do it. They have performed incredibly well till now and are faced with a 3-1 deficit to overcome at St. James’ Park. With Benfica a solid opposition, it is not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination. Newcastle though have enough quality to score twice, or maybe even more. The defense has been boosted by the return of Coloccini and Krul. Taylor, apart from his handball against Benfica, has looked solid. The reinforcements, particularly in the form of Sissoko and Gouffran, have provided much needed drive and cover to the midfield. Tiote, Cabaye and Cisse are coming back to their best form while Marveaux and Obertan seem to have improved greatly.

There have been concerns about Newcastle’s ability to sustain their European run and avoid becoming a part of the relegation dog-fight. For me, such concerns are unfounded. I believe the Magpies have too much quality to go down. Currently, they sit on 15th place with 33 points. Sunderland are on 16th two points below them. The top club in the bottom half of the table is West Ham with 36 points, although they do have a game in hand. But since the game in hand is away at Anfield, the chances of them getting any points from the tie remain slim.

Let’s assume that 40 points would guarantee safety (none of the bottom three are above 30). We can safely say that Newcastle are 7 points away from survival. Now let us see the fixture list and analyse how Newcastle can achieve 7 points. I will be making very provisional estimates.

First, Newcastle welcome Fulham to St James’ Park, a Fulham team which is jaded and inconsistent at best. Also, away from Craven Cottage, Fulham have been pathetic. The quality and recent league momentum that Newcastle have should earn them three points. Then they welcome rivals and neighbours Sunderland for the Tyne-Wear derby. Sunderland are on a downward spiral, but derby day could see them rise to the occasion. Even if they do, based on their current form and the absence of Fletcher, I cannot see them gaining a win in this fixture, so let us assume it to be a draw. This is followed by a visit to West Bromwich Albion. West Brom have been good at home all season and Lukaku is in good form. I assume this to be a loss for Newcastle. Let us also assume that Newcastle would lose to Liverpool at home and suffer a loss at Upton Park consequently. After these fixtures though, they have to visit Loftus Road to play a QPR team which seems to have made the drop. This is a fixture that should see the Geordies run away as winners. The final day would see them hosting Arsenal and probably losing to them too. So we find that Newcastle would have reached the grand total of 40 and managed to stay in the Premier League. I may be completely wrong and they may lose all of their remaining fixtures or earn less points than I assume them to, but playing the percentages I believe that they would get at least 7 points, maybe more. Their previous results against Arsenal and Manchester United have shown that the men in black and white can dig deep and gain success.

In light of these observations I feel it is premature and hopelessly pessimistic to assume that being knocked out of the Europa League would save them from relegation. I am a firm believer of momentum and if Newcastle do manage to progress by defying the odds, it is likelier that we would see the confidence and belief spill over to their domestic campaign too. We have all seen it time after time that momentum once built up just carries on and rides the team to success. Be it United in 1999, United again in 2007-08 or Barcelona in the subsequent season; these teams won the European as well as the domestic competitions. The teams mentioned above were superior, but is it not obvious that a team that has felt the exhilaration of reaching the last 4 of an European competition would play with more unity, spirit and zest? The French contingent also gives Pardew more than enough space to rotate key players.

Never is getting eliminated from a competition a good thing for a team. It breaks hearts, stops momentum and invites self-doubt. Terms like ‘losing with pride’ are used either by patronizing winners or sore losers. And leave it all aside, if Newcastle manage to somehow beat the odds and win the Europa League, what then? I can only imagine the ecstasy the Toon Army would feel. Almost everything I have heard on this topic states that it has to be a case of either/or for them. All I ask is one simple question, does it have to be?