Newcastle United could be heading for relegation in 2020-21 without significant investment
On paper, the 2019-20 season could be considered a success for Newcastle United and their manager Steve Bruce. Under pressure from a disillusioned fan base unhappy with the treatment of previous manager Rafael Benitez, Bruce led his side to a comfortable 13th place, finishing 10 points clear of the relegation zone.
There was also a decent run to the FA Cup quarter-finals, with Newcastle United reaching that stage of the competition for the first time since 2006.
However these results only tell a part of the story. The statistics suggest Newcastle United were lucky to stay up as comfortably as they did.
An outstanding season-long performance from goalkeeper Martin Dubravka and a late season flourish by Allan Saint-Maximin papered over a great deal of cracks.
Unless there is significant investment in the squad before the end of the transfer window, Steve Bruce's side will undoubtedly find themselves embroiled in a relegation battle.
There are a number of reasons for this.
Firstly, an injury to goalkeeper Martin Dubravka will see him miss a number of the club's early fixtures. Although Karl Darlow is an able deputy, this will be a huge blow to Newcastle United and Steve Bruce.
Dubravka was outstanding last season and was deservedly named the club's Player of the Year. Since making his first team debut against Manchester United in February 2018, Dubravka has not missed a Premier League game, playing 88 consecutive matches.
Last season he made 140 saves in the Premier League, eight more than Norwich City goalkeeper Tim Krul who finished in second place. He also kept an impressive 11 clean sheets which was the eighth best in the division.
He is a calm and reassuring presence and will be a huge loss in the opening weeks of the season.
Another glaring problem for Newcastle United was their complete lack of attacking threat for huge chunks of the season. Club record signing Joelinton was a flop, managing only two league goals all season.
The club's top-scorer in all competitions was Miguel Almiron who managed eight while midfielder Jonjo Shelvey was top scorer in the Premier League with just six.
Andy Carroll failed to score, and even Saint Maximin only managed three goals and five assists.
So far the club has been predictably quiet in the transfer market, signing goalkeeper Mark Gillespie and midfielder Jeff Hendrick on free transfers from Motherwell and Burnley respectively.
They are in desperate need of a striker, particularly following the news of an injury to Dwight Gayle who scored four goals in nine appearances when the Premier League resumed in June.
Newcastle United have problems on both sides of the pitch
Alongside the loss of Dubravka and the lack of a top quality striker, there are a number of other worrying trends from 2019-20 that do not bode well for Steve Bruce's side.
The club finished bottom of the expected goals table with a score of 0.96 per game while they were one of the leakiest teams defensively with the third worst record in the league for expected goals conceded.
This defensive frailty and lack of cutting edge was evident in the club's goal difference of minus 20, which was only better than the teams which finished in the bottom four positions of the league.
Newcastle United's defensive style of play wasn't helped by their complete lack of ability to retain possession of the ball. Newcastle United finished second bottom of the table for passes completed with just 13,066, less than half of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City who finished top of the table in this category.
While football is more than statistics, they undoubtedly paint a very worrying picture for Newcastle United and their supporters going in to 2020-21, having so clearly failed to address any of the problem areas from the previous season.
The collapse of the Saudi-led takeover has led to an increasing reluctance to spend on the part of owner Mike Ashley who is desperate to be rid of the club he purchased in 2007.
However Newcastle United have been here before under Ashley when calamitous investment led to relegation from the Premier League in 2009 and 2016.
It is in everyone's best interests to avoid this scenario, with the club worth far more to Ashley in the Premier League than in the Championship.
Newcastle United are currently heading the same way; sleepwalking into a needless third relegation during the Ashley regime. Investment before the transfer deadline on 5 October will be key to ensuring this doesn't happen.