Explained: How Scotland could qualify for Euro 2024 knockouts with just a draw against Hungary
Scotland could qualify for the Euro 2024 knockouts if they draw with Hungary in their final group game on Sunday (June 23) in Stuttgart. The Scots are third in the group, with one point from two games.
Following a heavy 5-1 defeat to group leaders Germany in their opening game, Scotland kept their knockout hopes alive with a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Switzerland.
Scott McTominay opened the scoring inside 13 minutes, but Swiss veteran Xherdan Shaqiri's thunderbolt equaliser 13 minutes later forced a share of the spoils.
Avoiding defeat has kept alive Steve Clarke's side's knockout hopes. While a win over Hungary will almost certainly send them through, even a draw could see them into the Round of 16 as one of the four best third-placed sides.
Of course, for that, the Scots will need a few results to go their way. With one point and a negative goal difference of 4, they are the worst third-placed side after two games.
They cannot reach the Euro 2024 Round of 16 if they lose, as they will finish last in their group. A draw would offer them a glimmer of hope, but they would need two of the following three results to go their way:
A) In Group B: Spain to beat Albania AND Italy to beat Croatia, which will leave the third-placed team in Group B with a solitary point and out of knockout contention.
B) In Group C: England to beat Slovenia by four goals - provided the Scots score as many against Hungary in their draw as Slovenia do against the Three Lions - AND - Denmark to beat Serbia.
C) In Group D: Czech Republic to lose to Turkey AND Portugal to beat Georgia
Scotland could still get eliminated from Euro 2024 even if they beat Hungary
Scotland's best chance of reaching the Euro 2024 knockouts is by beating Hungary. Would that be enough, though? Let's find out.
A win will take them to four points, the same as Switzerland have after two games. If the Swiss lose to Germany, they will be level with the Scots on four points, so goal difference would come into the picture. A seven goal-difference swing would see the Scots finish second.
A six goal-difference swing could also be enough: a 5-0 win coupled with Switzerland's 1-0 defeat, or a 4-0 win coupled with Switzerland's 2-0 defeat, or a 3-0 win coupled with Switzerland's 3-0 defeat. In all these cases, Scotland would finish second and reach the Euro 2024 knockouts.
However, if they win 1-0 and the Swiss lose 5-0, or Scotland win 2-0 and the Swiss lose 4-0, disciplinary record will come into play. Clarke's side are behind Switzerland after two games, owing to Ryan Porteous' red card. Things could get interesting if Scotland don't finish second despite beating Hungary.
Clarke's team would be eliminated from Euro 2024 knockout contention if four of the following five outcomes happen:
#1 Albania beat Spain
#2 Austria avoid defeat to the Netherlands
#3 Slovenia beat England and Denmark vs Serbia does not end in a draw
#4 Either Ukraine vs Belgium and Slovakia vs Romania ends in a draw
#5 Georgia beat Portugal
History would be in the Scots' favour, though, as no third-placed team with four points have failed to reach the knockouts since the Euros expanded to 24 teams in 2016, opening the door to four third-placed sides apart from the group winners and runners-up to reach the knockouts.