Paul Merson's predictions for France vs Belgium and other Euro 2024 Round of 16 fixtures
With the group games now reaching their conclusion, the UEFA Euro 2024 is set to feature a set of intriguing knockout games in the Round of 16. We've seen a lot of negative reactions to the England game, but France and Belgium aren't doing too well either.
How many times have we seen teams losing the first game of a tournament and then going on to win it? We've seen it with Argentina at the 2022 World Cup. I'm bullish about England, and I see them winning the Euros this year. They've got a nice draw as well, and they would want to peak at the right time.
Spain will be all right, but I don't see them winning the tournament. Switzerland are dark horses, and I'm worried about Austria. If I was a Manchester United fan, I'd be wondering why we thought Ralf Rangnick was terrible - he's turned Austria into a great team. They work hard, and they close their opponents down very well.
One half of the draw is very open, and things could get interesting. Denmark have a fair chance as well because there aren't too many great teams in this tournament. The team that gets to the final from the other half will be battle-hardened - they would've had to pull up trees to get there.
If we had the World Cup now, the only two teams that aren't in the Euros and have a shot at winning it are Brazil and Argentina. You get give-me games in the World Cup, and you know you can win some group games. Take a look at France's half of the draw at the Euros - it's very difficult.
Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Round of 16 matches in UEFA Euro 2024.
Switzerland vs Italy
Italy went 1-0 down against Croatia, and they were outstanding in the last 20 minutes. That's because the shackles were off. If they can play like that, they'll win this game.
I'm a big fan of Federico Dimarco down the left for Italy but he was quiet against Croatia. Italy are decent defensively, but they haven't been able to score goals. Both teams will be defensive going into this game because they both like to play on the counter.
I've been very impressed with Switzerland. They have a good shape about them, and they can be a threat on the break. Don't go by the Germany game and underestimate them - they know what they're doing. I think Italy will be defensive in this game, and I don't think they'll be able to beat Switzerland with that approach.
Prediction: Switzerland 1-0 Italy
Germany vs Denmark
This is a good game. I like the way Germany came back the other day, but Hungary were in the game for a long time. They had their chances, and they should've taken them.
Germany have got a good mix of youth and experience. With youth sometimes comes fear, but the youngsters can also just go out and play their game. Jamal Musiala has been great for Germany, but they can still win if he doesn't play well. If Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan don't play well, they can't win.
Musiala and Florian Wirtz are the icing on the cake, but they need their midfield. Their defence also has a mistake or two in them, and there are a few questions to be asked. If I were a German fan, however, I'd think the group stage was perfect - they had one easy game, one difficult game, and one comeback.
If Denmark push Germany this week, I can see why they pushed England to the brink as well. This could be a banana skin of a game for Germany, but I think they'll be able to pull off a victory.
Prediction: Germany 1-0 Denmark
England vs Slovakia
I keep telling myself that England will win games by 2-0 and 3-0 margins, but after 10 minutes of watching the game, I know what the score's going to be. The tournament's a month long, and it's all about peaking at the right time. If the forwards click, we've got every chance.
My brain tells me that England will score more goals, but the win is more important in this game. With extra time and the additional 30 minutes, England have the upper hand - we have the best squad. This doesn't really come into play in the group games. With people like Anthony Gordon coming on in extra time, it could be a nightmare for the opponent's defence.
I'm not sure if the criticism of Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane is unfair, to be honest. If Kane scores a hat-trick this weekend, we'll all be waxing lyrical. Bellingham looks like he needs a rest. He's never had this before in his career - he's under pressure, and the fans are booing the team. Harry Kane has faced this before, and he can cope with it.
If it gets to penalties, it means that we're struggling and our confidence is gone. Gareth Southgate needs to save a substitution for Ivan Toney, and Kane can't be taken off because he's a penalty-taker as well. Bukayo Saka took one in a big tournament and missed, but he's been brilliant at penalties after that.
I'd like to see Jude Bellingham stepping up for a penalty. If you're calling him the best in the world, you'd like to see him put his hand up in such a situation. I wouldn't want the back four taking any penalties with some of the world's best attacking talents in our squad.
England are only a goal away from clicking. Right now, no one wants the ball. When we're 1-0 up, they'll play differently. Slovakia aren't the worst team in the world. They're not bad at all, but I'd be shocked if England didn't win this game.
Prediction: England 1-0 Slovakia
Spain vs Georgia
Wow, what were Georgia like yesterday? Spain could make Georgia look silly with their passing, but they've got to be careful. If this was a group game two days ago, I'd be backing Spain to win this comfortably. With the Portugal result, the momentum is now with Georgia as well.
Spain keep the ball very well, but I don't see where they can score goals. Yamal, Williams, Morata - none of them are natural goalscorers, and they'll miss a lot of chances. If Harry Kane was playing for Spain, they'd dominate this tournament. If you miss so many chances, it'll come back to bite you.
If Georgia score the first goal, I don't see Spain scoring three or four goals to pull off a comeback. That's Spain's Achilles' heel - they can make you look average, but they won't blow you away.
I think this is going to be a tight game. When Spain played Italy, Italy struggled because they thought they'd have the ball, and they didn't. Georgia work their socks off - they know they won't have the ball, and they'll be dangerous on the counter. Spain are the better team, however, and should be able to win this game.
Prediction: Spain 2-0 Georgia
France vs Belgium
I'm not going to lie - I've been very disappointed with France. Ousmane Dembele just runs with no end product - if he had any, he'd be the best player in the world. They're not winning games and they've got the stinky part of the draw now. There's a lot of work to be done.
Romelu Lukaku could have been the tournament's top scorer - he's scored three disallowed goals. Belgium have weapons, but if Mbappe clicks, I don't see how they can stop him with their defence. Kylian Mbappe has been a bit nervous with his injury, but he's a game-changer on his day.
N'Golo Kante went to Saudi Arabia where he was head and shoulders above everyone else, and he's been outstanding at Euro 2024 - how have Chelsea let him go? It sums him up as a player - he's a great professional. You'd think he would've become a little lazy after a year in Saudi Arabia - not a chance with Kante.
Romelu Lukaku's style of play will favour the French defence. Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba wouldn't want someone running in behind them. They'd prefer a strong, physical battle because it suits them. Belgium are better off opening the game up because they have better players on the ball.
This is definitely the game of the round in my opinion. I'm going to go with France to win this game by a narrow margin.
Prediction: France 2-1 Belgium
Portugal vs Slovenia
This is a match that worries me as an England fan. We never looked like we could score a goal against Slovenia, and Portugal could destroy them. With Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, Portugal have got incredible movement. They also rested several players against Georgia yesterday.
Portugal left Joao Cancelo, Fernandes, and Silva on the bench yesterday - they've got to leave Ronaldo out as well. That worries me because it tells me he still has a massive influence on the squad. If he's running the show behind the scenes, it's a problem.
Portugal's key player isn't Ronaldo - it's Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva. Pepe also has to be at his best, or we're going to get a game where we notice his age sooner or later. If he plays well, Portugal have every chance of winning the Euros this year.
Slovenia's 4-4-2 worked against England, but it might not hold up against the movement and brightness of Portugal. I think the Portuguese should be able to win this game easily.
Prediction: Portugal 3-0 Slovenia
Romania vs Netherlands
Ronald Koeman doesn't mess about - he took Joey Veerman off after only 33 minutes. I love that - why not? That's what you need to be doing at these tournaments.
Cody Gakpo has a clear role on the left for the Netherlands, and he's scored goals for them. I don't mind Depay playing for them as well - he's got a good footballing brain. If he gets going, he gets other players into the game as well. I thought they'd be a lot better at the back with Van Dijk in the team. They've got to have a go - if they play defensively, they'll lose.
I'm quite surprised with Jeremie Frimpong's exclusion, particularly after the season he's had with Bayer Leverkusen. I thought he'd definitely start all of the Netherlands' matches - it's pretty clear that Koeman makes strong decisions. Romania were easily defeated by Belgium, and I think the Netherlands should be able to win this game.
Prediction: Romania 1-2 Netherlands
Austria vs Turkiye
No one plays at Austria's tempo, and I'm not sure if Turkiye can handle that. Austria could set up a rematch with the Netherlands, and they've already got the better of them in the group. If they win this game and pull off another result against the Netherlands, they could do well in the semifinals if they come up against England.
In this half of the draw, all the teams will be licking their lips, and they won't be worried. This half of the draw is very open and each team will think that it can get into the final.
Turkiye scored five goals in their group, but they got destroyed by Portugal. Austria are impressive, however, and their energy could be too much for Turkiye. I don't see anything but an Austria victory in this fixture.
Prediction: Austria 2-0 Turkiye