"Team that scores first wins" - Paul Merson predicts the result of the UEFA Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid
One of the most dramatic European campaigns in recent years is set to draw to a close as Liverpool and Real Madrid prepare to lock horns in Paris, with the UEFA Champions League trophy up for grabs. The two sides have won the competition a staggering 19 times between them and recently met in the 2018 final, with the La Liga giants prevailing 3-1 in Kyiv.
There's been a lot of talk about Liverpool potentially exacting 'revenge' for that night in Kyiv, while Real Madrid will look to complete the double, having already won the La Liga title by a margin of 13 points. Three weeks ago, the Reds look unstoppable, but a lot has changed since then. The likes of Virgil van Dijk, Fabinho and Mohamed Salah suffered injuries in that period, while Thiago Alcantara faces a race against time to be involved in the final.
Truth be told, Real Madrid come into the game with a bit of an advantage as they wrapped up the title three weeks ago and had the luxury of resting key players. Liverpool, on the other hand, fought for the Premier League title until the last day of the season and to make matters worse, they lost a few key players to injury in doing so.
They fielded a much-changed team against Southampton after a grueling FA Cup final against Chelsea, which is also a cause for concern as you could argue that their best team hasn't played together for a while now. They won the game 2-1 at St. Mary's Stadium, but the point I'm trying to make is that they've had a lot of interruptions at such a crucial stage of the season.
Even in training, they'll have had to make a lot of alterations due to having a few notable names unavailable. It's a bigger problem than you'd imagine, because tactics and the work you do at the training ground could make all the difference in a game like this. Fabinho and Thiago absolutely have to play in Paris; otherwise Liverpool cannot live with the likes of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro.
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Real Madrid's run to the final has been one of the stories of the season - you could even say they were effectively knocked out three times by PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City before staging stunning comebacks against each of those teams in the knockout stages. They faltered over the line, but there is an art to it and you absolutely cannot take that for granted.
Liverpool were too open against Wolves and gave away a lot of chances. If that were to be the case in Paris, Real Madrid will absolutely rip them apart, with the likes of Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr in blistering form up front. The Brazilian terrorized Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League last season and gave Trent Alexander-Arnold a tough time, but Liverpool won't change their game for anybody. I've seen them go to the Etihad Stadium and take the game to Manchester City, so they definitely won't lie down despite the obvious threat of the opposition forwards.
Liverpool and Real Madrid will look to pip one another to secure European glory
Both teams have settled starting lineups, but it remains to be seen who starts alongside Virgil van Dijk at the heart of the defense. I believe Ibrahima Konate will get the nod as he's better equipped to deal with Benzema and Vinicius due to his pace and strength. Joel Matip is a fantastic player in his own right and is arguably the best at playing out from the back among the Liverpool center-halves, but stylistically, Konate is a better fit for this game.
If Thiago Alcantara is not fit enough to start, I think Klopp could turn to the experience of James Milner ahead of Naby Keita. The Englishman plays it safe and gives a lot more without the ball than Keita, which could swing the argument in his favor. Thiago has to play this game as Liverpool don't have a player like him and he's enjoying his best spell at the club since joining in 2020.
As for Real Madrid, I think Carlo Ancelotti will go with the graft of Fede Valverde on the right flank. He'll effectively slot in as a fourth midfielder and will look to prevent the effervescent Luis Diaz from getting the ball in dangerous areas, while the rest of the team pretty much picks itself.
Sit back, relax and enjoy all of our goals on the road to Paris 😍⚽
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Keeping in mind all the comebacks Real Madrid have pulled off in Europe this season, this is probably a bold call but the team that scores first will win this game. In terms of game management, Ancelotti's side have a lot of experience in the competition and could use every trick in the book to emerge victorious.
The race for the 2022 Ballon d'Or is another intriguing subplot to the UEFA Champions League final in Paris, with Karim Benzema, Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah all set to feature in the game. If I had to pick one, I'd go with the Real Madrid man, as he's scored goals out of absolutely nothing this season. The goal against Manchester City wasn't even half a chance, but he gave the goalkeeper no chance. Coming to his penalty, who attempts a Panenka in a UEFA Champions League semi-final when the odds are stacked up against you?
Real Madrid rely on Benzema a lot more than Liverpool rely on Salah, so I think he should get his hands on the prized accolade as things stand. Of course, the outcome of the final will have a huge say in this debate, but this is what I believe at this point in time.
Predicting a game like this is incredibly hard, but I'm going for a 2-1 Liverpool win. They've had a tough few weeks, but if all their players are fully fit, I think they have what it takes to get the job done. Klopp and co missed out on the Premier League title by a point, but it'll be an unbelievable feat if they finish the season with the Carabao Cup, the FA Cup and the UEFA Champions League.
Both Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola are elite managers and have elevated the best league in the world to new heights with their excellence. In many ways, I don't think Manchester City get the credit they deserve despite winning four of the last five Premier League seasons! I don't like choosing between the two managers, but what I will say is that Klopp can probably take a team from League One to the Premier League, while I don't necessarily believe Guardiola can pull off something like that.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Real Madrid