Preview: Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Arsenal‘s season-opener at home against Aston Villa could have not gotten us off to a worse-start as a 3-1 loss at home seemed to expose us as not so much in-form as lucky over the final three months of last season. We weren’t stymied by our opposition so much as undone by our own frailties. How times have changed.

That debacle seems as far back in the past as, well as the signing of Mesut Özil. Even the apparent warnings and reminders of seasons past seem to have faded in the rearview. As recently as last year, we might look upon a trip like this one as just the kind we would stumble over, dropping vital points against an inferior side as we struggled vainly to secure that fourth-place trophy.

Without overplaying my hand, I daresay we come into this one, not just in fine form, but with a sense of confidence and resilience that changes the outlook. Instead of hand-wringing, there’s vim and vigor, a belief that we can and will go in and take all three points. It’s what we do—we’ll carry the Prem’s best away-record (seven wins, one draw, two losses, +9 goal-differential) into Villa Park along with a keen desire to exact a bit of revenge.

Continuing in that same vein, the Villains have struggled at home, managing just two wins and two draws from ten matches, with a -7 goal-differential as well. They currently sit 11th, five points above the drop-zone but with a chance to climb past Hull with a win on Monday. However, how they’ll do it is a rather daunting prospect.

It’s likely that they’ll sit back and defend in numbers, drawing a lesson from our struggles against teams that parked the bus, such as Chelsea did, as did Cardiff but with less success. I’d expect long periods of possession for us, punctuated by occasional counter-attacks as Villa try to catch us on the break. While the threat of scoring directly may not be high, the threat from resulting set-pieces will be one to watch keenly. Christian Benteke, all 1.9m of him, will be looking to regain some of the form that saw him score twice at the Emirates and four times in four matches to start the season. How we manage that threat, along with the possible frustration of dominating possession without scoring, will likely be the determining factors in the outcome.

Aston Villa seem to shift between a 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 formation, each of which looks like it may run into problems similar to those Tottenham’s 4-4-2 suffered, as our 4-2-3-1 should allow us to dominate the midfield, both to create chances and to nullify counters. With five midfielders, we should be able control the action and tempo.

However, should the Villains play as if they fancy a draw, it might not be a bad idea to concede possession a bit in order to draw them out and then to work into that space. We’ve seen that such a strategy bears ample fruit, whether it was Gnabry slaloming through Tottenham’s defense to find Cazorla waiting in acres of open space or Walcott cutting Cardiff open as they finally pressed forward in search of a late equalizer.

While we may struggle early on to unlock the Villains’ defense, it’s only a matter of time before the pressure becomes too much to bear, and I see Giroud announcing his return with one goal, and Ramsey doing the same, in a 2-0 win.

Last five

Arsenal 1-3 Aston Villa (17.08.2013)
Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa (23.02.2013)
Aston Villa 0-0 Arsenal (24.11.2012)
Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa (24.03.2011)
Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal (21.12.2011)

Fact file

Arsenal haven’t lost at Villa Park since December 1998—a record of seven wins and seven draws from fourteen matches.
The first meeting between the clubs was in 1904—a 2-1 win for Aston Villa.
Aston Villa have conceded the first goal at home in seven of their last ten matches.
Aston Villa have the lowest home-tally of any Prem side, with just seven goals scored.
Arsenal are unbeaten in five matches, keeping four clean sheets along the way.

Injuries

Paul Lambert’s side will go in with an injury-list almost as lengthy as Arsenal’s, and he has fewer options with which to reload. Although Ciaran Clark is back from suspension, summer-signing Lubor Kazak is done for the season after breaking his leg last week, and Charles N’Zogbia and Jores Okore will also be unavailable. Nathan Baker, Joe Bennett, Ron Vlaar, and Gabby Agbonlahor face late fitness tests, the latter two having sat out the mid-week FA Cup loss to League One‘s Sheffield United.

We will be without Vermaelen (knee), Diaby (ACL), Sanogo (back), Walcott (ACL), and Bendtner (ankle), while Gibbs faces a late fitness test. It’s possible that we’ll see Giroud and Ramsey back, and Oxlade-Chamberlain may make an appearance after playing the first half of the U21′s midweek win, although Arsene Wenger may opt to rest the winger rather than push his return.

Possible Starting XI

Szczesny, Monreal, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Jenkinson, Arteta, Ramsey, Rosicky, Wilshere, Ozil, Giroud

Prediction

Aston Villa 0 – 2 Arsenal