The Run-In begins: February's four top English clashes
February is potentially the key month in this Premier League run-in, with several top sides facing each other. Additionally, the Champions League and FA Cup ties this month will ask questions of the managers at the top sides, with issues like squad rotation, team balance and motivation being crucial at this stage of the season. Let’s look at four domestic matches that could tilt the balance of the title and top 4 races decisively.
Liverpool vs Arsenal (EPL)
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Traditionally a dramatic fixture, this has acquired extra pedigree due to the (unexpectedly) good campaigns both sides have carried out this season. It is a must-win for both sides – Arsenal need 3 points to keep their improbable title hopes alive, and gain some confidence for the acid tests with Bayern Munich, Man United and Liverpool (in the FAC) that lurk ahead. Liverpool have dropped easy points against Aston Villa and West Brom; another goof-up and they could concede valuable ground to Everton and Spurs.
Tactically, both sides are missing their first-choice CDMs (Lucas and Flamini), so one can expect some caution when going forward. Arsenal – who are unbeaten at Anfield since 2007 – have the superior midfield, which may encourage Arsene Wenger to be proactive with the ball and defend from the front, in the same way Chelsea did at City or Liverpool did against Everton. Then again, Liverpool are excellent on the counter and will be happy to sit back and soak up the pressure before breaking into space behind the Goon lines.
Liverpool have the best strike partnership in the Prem, Arsenal its most consistent defence. This match will depend almost entirely on two contests : Suarez-Sturridge vs Koscielny-Mertesacker-Arteta; and Sterling vs Monreal. Whichever side wins these battles will win the match. If Arsenal keep a clean sheet, their goalscoring midfield should deliver a win. If SAS get into stride, however, they can outscore any attack in the league.
Everton vs Spurs (EPL)
Here the tactical contest isn’t as interesting as the subtext. Both Everton and Spurs have been chasing the top 4 dream for much of the last decade without properly planting the flag, and Roberto Martinez and Tim Sherwood aim to change all that. They are young and ambitious managers keen to prove a point, and have had their sides playing good football of late.
However, they’ve seen their top 4 chances (and self-esteem) take major blows this past week. Everton extended a 15-year winless streak at Anfield with a 0-4 defeat to their local rivals; Tottenham in turn were humiliated 5-1 at home by Manchester City. Neither side reacted in particularly impressive fashion – Spurs drew away at Hull, and Everton struggled to defeat Aston Villa at home.
Champions League aspirants should be made of sterner stuff, and Spurs in particular appear to have commenced a familiar period of final-third self-destruction. A win on the weekend would put either side back in the top 4 conversation, particularly with Liverpool likely to drop points against Arsenal. Both Martinez and Sherwood, successful players in their own time, will be aware that the long-term significance of this match goes well beyond the three points.
Arsenal vs Manchester United (EPL)
Arsenal will not head into this fixture as the underdogs, which is something of a novelty given their recent form against United. The 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford in November, for example, owed a good deal to psychological factors: Arsenal’s midfield, supremely confident all season, looked cagey and uncertain on the night, and lacked its usual fluidity. Even Mesut Ozil, playing this fixture for the first time, was quiet throughout; suggesting that the team as a whole was being excessively cautious. That won’t be the case at the Emirates on the 12th, given that the points difference between the sides is now surely too great to be overcome and Arsenal will finish above Man United for the first time since 2005.
That said, the addition of Juan Mata and the removal of Aaron Ramsey from the equation gives United an edge. David Moyes is still searching for that elusive Top 4 away win, and Arsenal are his last – and best – chance of breaking the jinx this season. A win at the Emirates would be a major morale booster, and give United a lift in the race to the top 4, where they are currently chasing the pack. Arsenal – who play Liverpool either side of this match – will want to make doubly sure of their grip at the top. Both history and reason dictate that this is a six-pointer for both sides.
Key player - Robin van Persie has scored 5 consecutive times in this fixture (twice for Arsenal, thrice for United), and has short odds on the betting slips to extend that streak against his old side next week.
Clash of the month : Chelsea vs City (FA Cup)
Samuel Eto’o in action against City
With squad size and fitness an increasingly important issue, it’s a safe bet that the loser of this match will probably win the league title. That’s one less competition to worry about; one less trophy for a tiring squad to chase during a league campaign that is the closest-run in nearly 20 years. With Chelsea’s league stature growing steadily, Mourinho may opt for a tactical defeat and focus his energies solely on the Premiership. He has little left to prove against Pellegrini after doing a league double over City and convincingly ending the Citizens’ 100% home record.
Pellegrini too may find the FA Cup a distraction – tempting and shiny, but a distraction nevertheless. City have European ambitions and Pellegrini was hired specifically to progress in the Champions League. With his best striker (Aguero) and best defensive midfielder (Fernandinho) yet to return from injury and Samir Nasri out for the rest of the campaign, Pellegrini must marshal his resources judiciously. Then again, losing to a close rival for the third time in a season could send a wrong signal, not only to the City fans, but also to Pellegrini’s own players.
With the League Cup final approaching, the Chilean may just decide that one domestic Cup is enough for the season, and decide to tank the Chelsea match. Either way, it should be an interesting contest.