Germans on Spanish shores: Tactical preview of the Chamipons League Semis 2nd leg
Hope, as it has been famously said, isn’t a strategy.
At the end of the 1st leg of the Champions League semis on Wednesday, the football world reverberated with the score line Germany 8-1 Spain. Indeed the Spanish giants had been slain by the much less decorated Germans; indeed the future in Germany suddenly seems much brighter with the influx of Pep Guardialo, but now the Spanish superpowers have a chance to snatch back the headlines in the own backyards.
Even though Jose Mourinho will strategize through the nights and Tito Villonava will continue to clutch to his last straws, the fact remains that Spanish hopes now rest on the performances of an Argentinean messiah and a Portuguese superstar.
Robert Lewandowski celebrates scoring their third goal and his hat-trick with teammate Marcel Schmelzer during the UEFA Champions League semi final first leg match between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid at Signal Iduna Park on April 24, 2013 in Dortmund, Germany. (Getty Images)
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, 30th April
Injury Doubts and Starting XI
Two days prior to the 1st leg in Germany, Mourinho openly declared his starting XI to the press. But after the bashing Jose received in Westfalenstadion, the ‘Only One’ wouldn’t dare to pull off a similar stunt. But Mourinho has revealed that both Marcelo and Arbeloa will be out of the 2nd leg and that Blancos’ only hope Ronaldo has recovered just in time.
Jurgen Klopp on the other hand does not have many injury concerns from the first leg, apart from Piszczek not being fully fit due to an impending operation in the summer. His attacking trio of Mario Gotze, Marco Reus and Robert Lewandowski will surely bag the front 3 spots.
Having rested almost the entire starting line-up in the Madrid derby, Jose will have fresh legs to choose from. Karim Benzema might find himself in favour against Gonzalo Higuain, after the Argentinean’s dismissive show in Germany. Angel Di Maria will return to the line-up after two goals against Atletico, and this would leave Mesut Ozil to push up into the hole in the centre.
Ozil’s role undefined, Ronaldo could be effective centrally
Ozil’s selection is where Mourinho will have to make a big call. Though the German is definitely indispensible in the bigger picture, his subdued night on the right in Dortmund and his lack of impact when shifted to the centre, might make Mourinho rethink his tactics. In the group stage Ozil played the No.10 against Dortmund and was told to fall back into the midfield in order to escape the grasps of Dortmund’s deep midfield duo. This tactic worked well as Ozil was able to pick out Ronaldo’s diagonal runs when Mats Hummels got pulled out easily by Higuain.
After Ilkay Gundogan’s and Sven Bender’s massive performance last Wednesday, Jose would plan to keep them subdued at the Bernabeu. This might need Ozil to shift away from the hole and instead bring Ronaldo to the centre, in order to keep the Dortmund duo tentatively marking the Portuguese deep. Though this opens a spot on the right for Ozil and this would be a perfect ploy to keep Piszczsek and Kuba busy, Jose might again chose to add in attack by playing Jose Callejon there. Callejon had displayed an impressive urge to run at the defence during the Dortmund game in the group stage, and would be a good option for Ronaldo to pick out.
Modric over Khedira, Defensive dilemma over Pepe
Another area for Mourinho to consider would be Sami Khedira’s role in this game. He was the only player to have started the Dortmund game and the Madrid derby, and this selection would indicate Jose’s tactic of laying Modric in his place. Luka Modric is definitely a much bigger attacking threat than Khedira, but it was his negligence to close down Gundogan that got Madrid battered in the 1st leg. But if Ronaldo is played via the centre, then Dortmund’s duo would sit much deeper and would make conditions perfect for Luka Modric.
Once you have conceded 4 goals against a team that was initially placed in the 4th pot in Champions League qualification, your defence would need real stirring up. But Jose does not have many options in this regard. Coentrao looks set to start at left back, but it is the opposite wing that needs recovery. Ramos was left out of breath by Gotze and Reus’s combination and this resulted in an even weaker performance by Pepe in the middle. Though towering in the air, Pepe’s pace on the ground would have shown even Carvalho in good light. Jose has the option to shift Ramos to the centre alongside Varane and then bring in Essien on the right; though even the thought of Essien against Reus seems comical. Another option would be to shift Coentrao to right back as he would provide much more solidity in defence.
Right back is Klopp’s only issue
Dortmund would not have to twinge with their tactics a lot. Having done 70% of the job well, Klopp needs a good finish from his players, and in-form striker Lewandowski looks set to add to his goals. Lewa’s tactic of sticking to Alonso and then playing in Reus and Gotze will work out well again, as Alonso has become indispensable to Madrid’s style.
The only concern for Klopp would be Piszczek’s fitness at right back; an alternative for which might be to shift Bender into that role, rather than the more attacking Kevin Grosskreutz. Bender’s shift to right back would be an astute move in more than one regard, as this would bring captain Kehl alongside Gundogan and this duo has been the more responsive for Klopp this season.
This game has to be taken with the pre-assumptions that this Dortmund team is surely going to score at least 1 goal. So the tie is entirely dependent on how many more goals can Madrid score after the first 4. A good inspiration for Jose would be fellow Spanish club Deportivo’s feat of returning back after a 4-1 first leg thrashing to AC Milan.
Thomas Mueller celebrates scoring the fourth goal with Arjen Robben (L) during the UEFA Champions League Semi Final First Leg match between FC Bayern Muenchen and Barcelona at Allianz Arena on April 23, 2013 in Munich, Germany. (Getty Images)
Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich: Nou Camp, 31st April
Madrid’s comeback in the 2nd leg might seems plausible to some only because of their away goal, and might be in some cases due to Dortmund not being so established enough yet. Elsewhere in Spain, Barcelona sit busy shining their lone hope to some sort of salvation.
Historically Barca have made sensational comebacks against Milan this year and Arsenal two seasons ago. And ironically the score in both these matches ended up 4-0 to Barca. Though in this case the rivals that the Catalans face are leagues ahead of Allegri’s Milan, and might be two leagues ahead of the Arsenal of 2010. Bayern Munich have had a fantastic season and already been termed as the ‘Team of the Season’ by many ahead of this encounter.
Injury/suspension worries and Starting XI
Team news for this tie has been crucial, as Bayern, severely depleted by injuries and suspensions were outwitted at home by Arsenal earlier this season. But this is not the case for Heynckes now as none of his stalwarts have been ruled out for this contest, though most of them are one booking away from missing the possible final at Wembley.
If Tito has indeed set sights on Wembley from this position, he will have to do so with a number of absentees. Jordi Alba is suspended after a stupid booking in Munich, while Carles Puyol and Javier Mascherano are still unfit.
Tito has not played a 3 man defence this season, and the closest he can play against Bayern would be shifting Busquets to centre back. Adriano’s shift to Alba’s role and naïve showings by Marc Bartra and Alex Song, leave Busquets as the only option of playing an advanced CB with Pique.
Iniesta on the wings, Messi and Villa could start together upfront
Another area of concern for Barca would be Iniesta’s role after he was marked out of the 1st leg by the brilliant Javi Martinez. Iniesta, rightly considered by some to the actual ‘best player in the world’, would operate from his familiar left wing role. This would leave a spot open for Cesc Fabregas to fit into midfield. Cesc’s games alongside Iniesta have been criticized this season due to the clash of similar styles and positioning by the duo. But here Cesc would be playing a much deeper role in midfield alongside Xavi, as Busquets would move into the defensive third.
Tito’s line-up against Bilbao in the weekend was surprisingly strong, as Xavi, Pedro and Alexis all started the game. Villa’s absence and the need for goals against Bayern indicate that the Spaniard would be given a starting role on Wednesday alongside Messi. Where exactly would Villa be played will be an interesting choice, as previous games in which he was paired with Messi upfront have drawn appreciations from the Argentine himself.
Messi and Villa upfront would leave only one spot left on the right wing and this leave a direct race between Pedro, Sanchez and Tello. Pedro’s less than impressive performance against Bilbao means that he might not start, and moreover the advanced presence of Alves from right back reduces the need of Pedro to stretch play from the right wing. Playing Alexis from the right would defiantly clash positions between him and Villa, as Sanchez is often seen cutting in from the right and ending up central. So Tello seems the best option for Tito and his direct style might prove difficult for the likes of Alba or Lahm.
Martinez shifts his sight to Messi, Muller over Robben for pressing game
Bayern, similar to Dortmund, will have very few issues to deal with; the main one being the apparent re-emergence of Leo Messi. In this regard Heynckes will have a bigger issue in his hands, as his defence only was sufficient to handle the Argentine in the 1st leg. Now in case Iniesta shifts to the left, this would leave Martinez with the job to mark Messi. And even though Bayern’s 40 million Spaniard is more than efficient in doing this job, the presence of the ever attacking Fabregas in midfield is going to hamper him certainly.
This overload of attackers by Barca would make Heynckes add Gustavo to the midfield fray with Martinez. This would lead to the sacrifice of either Robben or Muller from attack, Robben looking the more likely option due to Muller’s great work rate.
Looking at Barca’s attack, counter attacks and pressing Bayern’s defence in possession seems the only tactics. The presence of Mario Mandzukic would be a great asset to proved flick ons to Muller and Ribery; but fitness concerns might lead to Mario Gomez starting.
A tie that does not seem to be winnable on paper for Barca due to their lack of away goals, is still interestingly poised due to Messi’s freshness and the connection the Catalans have to this particular 4-0 score line. Expect Catalunya to be at its loudest to inspire Messi and Co.
Predictions:
Real Madrid 3-1 Dortmund
Barcelona 2-1 Bayern Munich