The Difficult Dilemma - Should Everton keep Marco Silva or make a Change?
Outside of English Football's proclaimed "Big Six" of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, there is credibility in labelling Everton as the next highest ranked club outside of this elite group. The Toffees are of course in terms of total English league titles won still ranked fourth on the all-time list with 9, trailing only Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal.
In terms of FA Cup wins, Everton also rank strongly, 9th overall in the competition's history with 5 victories and 8 runner-up placings. Finally Everton are one of only six ever-presents in each season of the Premier League since its inception in 1992 and hold an English football record of 116 seasons in total spent in English football's top flight since the club's foundation in 1878.
Every cloud currently does not have a silver lining
While hopes of repeating Leicester's heroic 2015-16 title triumph were faint at best, there were decent pre-season hopes that Everton could displace one of the top 6 this season with even an outside change of finishing in the top 4 given Arsenal's transition from Wenger to Emery and Tottenham being unable to go into the transfer market to strengthen their squad.
However 2018-19 so far has been underwhelming for the Toffees, the club currently sit 9th in the Premier League, 6 points behind 7th placed Wolves and a colossal 17 points behind Arsenal and Chelsea in 5th and 6th place. This despite a highly promising summer transfer window which saw high profile players such as Bernard, Lucas Digne, Richarlison and Andre Gomes acquired.
The summer also saw the appointment of a new manager, Marco Silva who had initially impressed at Watford last season before a bitter war of words erupted between the Hornets and Everton when the latter looked to acquire Silva's services as a replacement for the sacked Ronald Koeman.
Watford stood firm however and refused to negotiate Silva's release forcing Everton to appoint Sam Allardyce instead. However, a patchy run of form from early December saw Watford eventually replace Silva as manager with Javi Gracia. Everton did not hesitate upon the completion of the 2017-18 season to replace Allardyce with Silva, rating him highly enough that they were ultimately prepared to hire him no matter what contract was in place with Allardyce.
It all started well enough for Silva at Everton, after Matchday 13 of the EPL and Everton's 1-0 home victory against Cardiff, the Toffees sat in 6th place in the standings and were dreaming of European qualification. However, since their dramatic injury-time Matchday 14 defeat to fierce rivals Liverpool at Anfield, Everton have collapsed. A run of only won three out of their last 13 games means European competition qualification through the league is now unlikely. Further misery was inflicted when Everton lost 3-2 at second tier Millwall in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup after leading the game 2-1 at one stage.
Fans have started to get restless at Goodison over the poor run of form and there is now speculation over the future of Silva and whether he will still be at the club next season.
The case for making a change
2018-19 at Everton so far has seen a remarkable similarity to Watford under Silva's guidance in the 2017-18 season. After a 3-0 away victory against Newcastle in Matchday 13 of the 2017-18 Premier League, Silva's Watford stood 8th in the standings and looked set to challenge for European qualification. Yet this turned out to be Silva's penultimate league win in charge of the Hornets. A run of 1 win, 2 draws and 8 defeats in the next 11 games saw Silva dismissed from his position at Watford after a 2-0 away defeat at Leicester.
When this happens at one club, one could put it down to circumstances or bad luck. However for it to happen two seasons in a row at two different clubs with such frightening similarity means that question marks do then understandably have to be asked about a manager.
It is also worth noting that Everton are already the 6th different club Silva has managed in just the 8th season of the 41-year-old's managerial career so far. Silva since leaving Estoril at the end of the 2013-14 season has spent no more than 1 season at all the clubs he has managed since (Sporting CP, Olympiakos, Hull City and Watford).
Finally, most worrying of all is that Silva's Everton have conceded a staggering 17 goals in all competitions from set-pieces this season with 12 of which coming in league matches, the worst of any team in the Premier League. Everton's fanbase never took to Sam Allardyce during his short tenure at Goodison Park. However, rest assured under Big Sam, the team would not be conceding so many set-piece goals.
Getting a team well organised defensively and being competent when defending set-pieces should be the easy part of football management. Yet it has proven difficult for Silva and this combined with a tough run of fixtures throughout March and April to come means an argument to replace Silva even at this moment, let alone at the end of the season has understandably surfaced.
The case for sticking with Silva
Prior to Everton's 2-0 home loss against Manchester City on Matchday 26 of the Premier League season, Everton's main shareholder Farhad Moshiri gave his backing to Silva stating his belief that Silva could build something "long-term" at Everton. Some will interpret Moshiri's backing as the typical "kiss-of-death" for an under-pressure manager. However, there is a strong case for Everton standing by Silva and giving him a second season.
Some point to Moshiri having strongly backed Silva these last few transfer windows with substantial funds and the results not having matched the outlay. However, we are not in back in the 2002-03 season pre-Abramovich at Chelsea and Sheikh Mansour at Manchester City. Everton are not one of the few clubs in the land to have a wealthy benefactor like Moshiri and failure to qualify them for the Champions League is absymal performance.
Nearly every club now in the Premier League has access to a wealthy entrepreneur. Combine this with the huge new television rights deal and Everton's considerable outlay on transfers should not be used as a barometer to judge a manager's performance as strongly as scenarios in the past.
The second strong case for giving Silva a second season at Everton is stability. Since Moshiri became main shareholder at Everton in early 2016, Silva is already the fourth permanent manager at Goodison following on from Roberto Martinez, Ronald Koeman and the aforementioned Allardyce. Everton's squad at present is currently composed of signings from all those three managers above, some Silva signings and the last fragments of transfers conducted under the Moyes era such as Baines and Jagielka.
Replacing Silva with another new permanent manager in the summer would see more ins and outs regarding playing personnel and no guarantee of any higher a finish than their current 9th place. A commonly used phrase amongst fans is a need to "rebuild the squad" whenever a club has had a poor season. However, Everton have since the departure of David Moyes for his ill-fated spell at Old Trafford in the summer of 2013 been in a constant state of rebuilding their squad due to the high amount of recent managerial changes. The last thing needed this summer is surely another rebuild.
This point was brought up by journalist Jack Pitt-Brooke on Sky Sports' Sunday Supplement programme the day after Everton's away 1-0 loss to Watford. Another good observation was made on the same programme by Jason Burt from the Daily Telegraph, Burt stated that Everton need to decide their identity as a club going forward as the last few seasons under Moshiri have seen the club lurch from one identity to another with their managerial appointments.
Another view put forward by Burt included Moshiri eventually reaching a point where he will cease to plough considerable sums of money into the club with no clear signs of progression. This is another strong argument towards keeping Silva for a second season. Sacking Silva will involve paying up his contract, it could then involve having to pay compensation to another club for a manager. This is all before the new manager demands new signings and a considerable transfer budget to make such acquisitions.
Conclusion
One final observation made by Burt was that Everton almost have to invent themselves as a "Tottenham of the North of England". An observation that I believe to be correct given Everton's historical size, stadium and fanbase. However, this will require a plan putting in place, Tottenham's superb title challenge under Mauricio Pochettino this season is the culmination of 4 and a half superb seasons of building under the brilliant Argentine manager.
Everton now have to follow this model, the question is do they proceed with trying to be a "Tottenham of the North" with the services of Silva or do they decide to make a change? At the moment one would say it is an exceptionally tough 50/50 call to make with strong arguments on both sides. One feels that results and performances over the next few months could determine whether or not Silva gets that second season chance at Goodison.