Who's going to win the Premier League, Manchester City or Liverpool?
With nine games to go in the Premier League season, Manchester City sit a point clear at the top with Liverpool right behind them. The title seemed like a foregone conclusion but the Reds have managed to close the gap thanks to their consistent performances. City have also suffered some poor results recently to give Liverpool the advantage. With both teams in the FA Cup and Champions League, there is everything to play for this season.
Only one point separates Liverpool and Man City since the start of the 2018-19 season 🤯 https://t.co/TxBh1eqzdG
Premier League Champions - Manchester City
Manchester City are the reigning champions but have seen their 14 point lead get cut down to one point over the course of the last three months. Pep Guardiola and co. are certainly feeling the pressure but the international break has come at a good time for them. They defeated Southampton 1-4 at the weekend in the FA Cup quarterfinals (20 March) and face Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals in April.
City began the season with a loss on the opening day against Tottenham Hotspur but they have gradually moved up the table and have been top of the table since matchweek 15. City’s pending game run-in is quite favorable. They face Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United while also playing Burnley, Watford and Leeds United among others. However, the all-important game against Liverpool on April 10 could be a title-deciding one. Also, only one of those games is a home game, which may be tricky for them in their title defense.
City have scored plenty of goals this season (68), but they don’t have a striker in the traditional sense. Sergio Aguero was never replaced and this season their top scorers are Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling with 10 goals each. The two players are wingers and Gabriel Jesus, their only proper striker, has scored two goals this season. Defensively, they are the best team in the league, conceding just 18 goals in 29 games.
Having drawn Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, the two-legged tie now sits on either side of the game against Liverpool. It will be a case of which fixture Pep wants to prioritize going into the game. Atletico and Liverpool are two different teams though, which should help Guardiola manage the game better. If City beat Atletico, they then face Real Madrid or Chelsea, which are tougher games.
Overall, using the average points gained from the home and away games this season, City might finish with 94 points. That is 24 out of the available 27 but these are only theoritical predictions. Away trips to relegation sides will be tough and the Champions League, along with a possible FA Cup run, will add tougher fixtures to the schedule. The crucial game remains Liverpool's tie, with three points in that game could see the advantage restored for them in the title race.
The Chasers - Liverpool
There is a sense of pressure around Liverpool in this title race. The Reds have maintained a high level of performance in the league under Jurgen Klopp, but have won one league title in six seasons. They currently sit second in the table, a point behind City. They progressed to the FA Cup semifinals, beating Nottingham Forest on 20 March and will play Benfica in the Champions League quarter-finals in April.
Liverpool were inconsistent until matchday 15 but since then have remained second in the table. They have gradually chipped away at the gap and now sit right behind City ready to pounce. The problem for Liverpool is that they have a tougher run-in of pending games. Fixtures against Manchester United and Spurs await along with a big game trip to the Etihad. Watford and Everton are also part of the the upcoming fixtures.
20 Premier League goals
Mo Salah’s done it for the fourth time in his five seasons at Liverpool 😤 https://t.co/Dxx0MfCr9q
All four of those five games are at Anfield though, which is a benefit to Klopp. Liverpool have a stellar attack, the best in the league with Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Diogo Jota scoring the bulk of the goals while Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino provide depth. They have a system similar to City's setup which does not include a traditional striker. Defensively similar to City, there are no issues, albeit a lack of depth.
Games against Benfica in the Champions League either side of the City game might be easy to negotiate for Klopp, but a potential semi-final clash against Bayern Munich in the semi-finals will be tough. The main issue for the German is lack of depth in certain areas of the park and he will hope that all these players can stay fit for the run-in.
Using the same average points method, the Merseysiders are set to finish second, with a total of 90 points - a potential 21 out of the pending 27 points on offer. There is no doubt that at least domestically Liverpool have more to do. They of course have to go to the Etihad and if they can win that game that will put them ahead of City if they continue to pick up points. From then on, it will depend on the consistency of getting wins.
As football fans, everyone loves an exciting title race. It would have been a three-horse race if Chelsea had not lost both Reece James and Ben Chilwell for large parts of the season. The game at the Etihad will be a turning point for this race. City have easier pending games compared to Liverpool but funnier things have happened in football. It is going to be a very exciting end to the season regardless.