The Premiership race is between Arsenal and City – 14 years of precedence tells us so

The Invincibles of Arsenal

Not so much new to write about that has not already been written about to be honest. So I thought I would return to my current favourite theme of trends and yes of course statistics. Not assist and goals more Premier League precedents and history and what they might inform us about Arsenal’s title aspirations.

We all know that Ramsey is on fire, that Ozil sees passes others do not and that Mertesacker and Koscielny have some sort of special thing going on. I am not sure we all know who we would pick as a starting eleven in a cup final if all fit but that can be for another day.

Right now most of the Arsenal fans attention seems to be on the signing of a new striker in January and thousands are salivating at the prospect of Draxler arriving in N5. A player who I virtually guarantee will be behind a fit Podolski in Low’s plans for the summer if both are fit and well. However this is no necessarily a piece about that more perhaps about the balance in priorities of clubs and the fans as against what may in fact be more important which is ensuring the defence stays mean and the goals against column retains the healthy visage it has today.

Defenders win you titles

“Unheralded and unloved, it is defenders not strikers who decide the title race.”

This was the headline to a superb article in the Guardian written by David Lacey in January 2009. I am not sure who was originally credited with saying that ‘strikers win you matches but defenders won you championships!’ but I suspect it annoyingly may have been Alex Ferguson. The article points out that it sis always attacking players who win the awards each year and occasionally Keepers but very rarely defenders. They don’t take the glory outside of the club but I think however exciting and creative this Arsenal team is most of us know where the plaudits are equally due. However the last time it was used in an Arsenal context that I recall, was by our old friend Kolo Toure after City have parked the bus at the Emirates in January 2011.

Defences win you titles said KT

“Strikers can win you games, but defenders can win you titles.”

Toure was not correct in 2011 but the following season the solid base of Lescott and Kompany ensured City only conceded 29 for the campaign and indeed secured the Premiership title. Yes of course the team has to score enough goals to win games but the starting point has to be to concede as few as possible.

So without stating the obvious the perfect combination if to score heavily and concede few! Fairly apparent but exactly how significant is that ‘Goal Difference’ column in May when the prize is handed out?

Now you all know I love a theory based on research. In fact I think of it as a sad trademark of 1ND2OU. You may not agree with me but you will usually learn a few facts of merit to throw into the argument down the pub or in the stadium. Well my friends this article will not disappoint and it will have the added bonus of crucifying or lesser North London big spending neighbours as well.

So initially he is a FACT to quote Benitez –

Not one single Premiership title this century has been won with a goal difference of less than 40. Now 14 years is not a bad period over which to assess a theory is it?

Season	Champions	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference

2012/13	Man United	86	43	43
2011/12	Man City	93	29	64
2010/11	Man United	78	37	41
2009/10	Chelsea	103	32	71
2008/9	Man United	68	24	44
2007/8	Man United	80	22	58
2006/7	Man United	83	27	56
2005/6	Chelsea	72	22	50
2004/5	Chelsea	72	15	57
2003/4	Arsenal	73	26	47
2002/3	Man United	74	34	40
2001/2	Arsenal	79	36	43
2000/1	Man United	79	31	48
1999/00	Man United	97	45	52

A few quick observations:

- Scoring late 70s/early 80s in goal numbers will win you the title more times than not as long as your goal difference is 40 plus

- No team with a goal difference of under 40 has won the Premiership this century – FACT

So importantly what does this huge weight of historical precedence and new knowledge mean for the Arsenal title challenge in 2014?

Well the first thing to say is that we are over a third of the season so existing form and trends are not a flash in the pan. (I have a doctorate in football research and this is a serious statistical theory!!!) I would however like to come back to this once all teams have played each other at the end of 2013.

Just remember that NO team has won the league with a GD worse than 40 in 14 seasons:

Team	After 14			Projected	After 38
	Goals	Against	GD Today	Goals	Against	GD

Arsenal	29	10	19	79	27	52
Chelsea	28	14	14	76	38	38
Man City	40	14	26	108	38	70
Liverpool	30	17	13	81	46	35

So the above table suggests a few things on face value:

At present after 14 of 38 matches if the top 4 continue scoring and conceding at the same rate, 14 years of precedent suggests only Arsenal and Man City can win the Premiership.

It also suggests that unless Chelsea sort out the defending of set pieces (oh the delicious irony) they will concede too many perhaps to win the league. They are however managed by Mourinho who will improve the defence one would suspect. Although I am not convinced he is as ‘Special’ as he was in 04-06 when his defence was majestic. He won the league twice based on the meanness at the back not on an exciting attack. CFC do of course have money to spend in January.

Liverpool are for me simply are too porous at the back. Rogers has no idea of his best back 4 or in truth even if it is a back 4. Unlike CFC though, I do not see their Americans opening their wallet to bring in a top class central defender.

In short history combined with current form and a settled back line favours Arsenal, although City will compensate for their weaker and less settled defence with greater striking power. Chelsea cannot be discounted but their sustained challenge will be dependent on Jose being able to decide upon and improve his back 4. Liverpool despite the form of Suarez will always leak too many.

Just for a fun it would be remiss if I did not include a few others sides who surprisingly still feel themselves in the title race. More surprisingly, NOT is that some of our friends in the media feel the same.

Team	After 14			Projected	After 38
	Goals	Against	GD Today	Goals	Against	GD

Everton	22	13	9	59	35	24
Spuds	13	15	-2	35	40	-5
RVP	22	18	4	60	48	12

More observations:

I would firstly like to apologise to all intelligent readers for including in my analysis of potential Premiership Champions a side with a negative goal difference. I have done it purely for comedic purposes and do hope it will not cause you to take the rest of my theorizing any less seriously.

At best…..

In a similar vein I should probably make an observation about Man United. Despite managing to defeat a flu stricken Arsenal, they are not scoring and RVP, as I predicted on numerous occasions would not be as prolific and fee of injury in his 30s. It would need an almighty change of form for United to mount a challenge for the title. I swing of 28 or so in goal difference in the next 24 matches seems highly unlikely.

No RVP no Title

I will not apologise for Everton being included. They are there on merit but will need to seriously up their scoring rate and add other regular contributors outside of Lukaku on a consistent basis. I would certainly not rule Martinez out of surprising a far few by steering the Toffees into 4th and I would enjoy that immensely.

So in my optimistic book the Premiership is a 2 bordering on three horse race based largely on what Chelsea do in the window or on the training pitch defensively. It would require a huge improvement defensively I feel for LFC to sustain any challenge and as for the others I would forget it.

So before I finish I would throw ion one further historical crumb of comfort for all Gooners when it comes to City and their goals machine. Only 2 sides have won the Premier League this century having lost 6 games. They were Chelsea in 2010 and Man United in 2001. The average number of games conceded to win the league since 2000 is under 3 (2.92) and Man City have after 14 matches lost 4 already. To be truthful The ‘Invincibles’ and CFC’ 05 side only losing once throw the average so let us just look at the leagues since 04 and 05.

In those eight seasons since 05 The Premiership champions have lost 4 times twice, 5 times on 5 occasions and 6 times only once. I guess it depends on whether you believe that City can play the next 24 games and only lose twice.

Anyway I hope that is a refreshingly different look at Arsenal’s title credentials and gives you all a bit of focus on what it takes to win the league in the 21st century. It does start with a strong and consistent back 4 and a keeper performing at the top level. Another area where we may score over City at present is on the Goal keeper front. Food for thought and let’s assess this again after 19 games.

Yours

The Serious Statistical theorist other wise known as GoonerDave66 Pub Philosopher.

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