The Unbeatables: How 4-3-3 is dominating Europe

It’s just like the Premier League to distance itself from the other top leagues around Europe; as most nations had a clear favourite the PL cranked up the pressure and ensured it would be the most exciting watch again, with 3 of the top 4 clubs changing managers in the summer. This saw the bookies sit on the fence and offer similar odds for each of Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City to win the league. Stability is the king though, as Arsenal leads the way at this early stage in the season.

Despite Roma surprising everyone in Italy after winning 10 of their opening 11 games, drawing the other, the rest of Europe is sticking to the script as all the early favourites have opened up gaps at the top of their respected leagues. Bayern Munich, Barcelona and PSG all join Roma on the list of the only unbeaten clubs left around Europe’s top five leagues.

Interestingly enough, the leaders from around the leagues all seem to play with the same system: a dynamic 4-3-3 that involves a lot of passing and controlling the play, shown in the high amount of assists each team has registered. So why have these teams been so successful so far this season? Let’s find out…

Roma

Despite failing to predict the rise of the Gunners, the odds have been mostly correct for the rest of Europe with Roma proving to be an exception to the rule at this early stage. Roma started out as contenders for the Europa League places rather than challenging for the Scudetto, but have defied the odds to sit pretty at the top of Serie A.

Juventus were the obvious favourites coming into the new season as the reigning champions looked to defend their title after another relentless season under Antonio Conte. The dominance of the Old Lady saw the odds of their rivals head towards the heavens with Roma coming in at 20.0 when markets opened in the summer.

In hindsight the bet to make at the start of the season was obviously Roma to be crowned champions. If you’d have made this bet, you would be sitting pretty on a very tidy offer of profit from Betfair’s Cash-Out feature at this moment in time, with the odds currently nearly a sixth of what they once were.

Despite now being favourites for most fixtures they take part in, Rudi Garcia’s men tend to wait until the second half to take the lead in games (7 of their 10 wins have come after Roma opened the scoring in the second half). Betting on the opponent to draw and then cashing out at half-time could be a logical use of the Cash-Out funcion in play during Roma games to come.

Roma are flourishing in the 4-3-3 system implemented by Garcia who developed his attacking formation at Lille, lifting the Ligue 1 crown in 2010/11. 17 of their 25 goals have come from assists, a huge indication that they are a team, rather than a group of individuals. They are also the holders of the best defensive record in Europe, only conceding two goals in their 11 games so far.

His attacking philosophy has clearly rubbed off on his peers as France has adopted a new attacking mentality, most notably at free-spending PSG.

PSG

The Ligue 1 favourites have managed to form one of the deadliest attacking units in football;Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the meat in an Ezequiel Lavezzi and Edinson Cavani sandwich in an attempt to romp France’s top-flight. Zlatan and Cavani have nine goals between them this season, helping Laurent Blanc to settle into his new position well. He seems to be getting the best out of his players when he needs it most, with memories of Carlo Ancelotti now long gone.

Blanc was the manager who broke Lyon’s dominance in French football when he won Ligue 1 with Bordeaux in 2008/09, bringing an end to Lyon’s run of 7 league titles in a row. He looks to have landed on his feet with his current job and has no intention of giving it up, guiding PSG to an unbeaten start to their campaign scoring 24 goals and conceding just seven along the way.

PSG’s Chances Created This Season

These goals have come about through brilliant ball play (they have a 90% pass accuracy this season) and, like the other unbeatable teams, have plenty of assists to highlight their fluent style of play. The stats don’t lie and as others around Europe begin to adapt their formations to try and fit their squad, the giants are sticking to what they know best and getting the results to match.

Barcelona

Barcelona rebounded from losing out on the 2011/12 La Liga by matching Real Madrid’s record points total just a season after the monstrous 100-point barrier had been broken by Jose Mourinho’s men. Their form in the Champions League was nowhere near as consistent as their domestic form, however. On top of a humiliating semi-final defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich, the Catalan giants lost to Celtic and AC Milan before scraping through the quarter-final stage with a victory over PSG on away goals.

This season has seen them continue last season’s fine domestic form and new manager Gerardo Martino has made moves towards the side being more efficient in front of goal. His side has scored 34 goals during their unbeaten start to the season – the most of all the teams mentioned – and look well on their way to being capable of avenging their defeat to Bayern last season.

Barcelona’s La Liga Goals So Far

These goals have come in just as you expect, slick passing moves that has seen Barcelona top the La Liga assists chart with 25 of the 34 goals they have scored being created by a teammate rather than a mistake or individual play.

 

Bayern Munich

Of course the current champions of Europe play 4-3-3; of course they’re unbeaten to date; of course nearly 80% of their goals have come via an assist.

Many thought Barcelona had found an unbeatable system with their tiki-taka styling, but the Bavarian club have taken on their slick passing and added the German efficiency to boot. Their dominance in European football was made known to everyone who’d been under a rock for the past couple of seasons when they demolished an out-of-sorts Barcelona in the Champions League semi-finals.

They look to be even better this year with new manager and former Barcelona boss, Pep Guardiola, adding his influence on the squad. This is evident in their possession statistics that show a 4% rise (62%) on last season as well as creating more chances per game than under Jupp Heynckes.

Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga Possession 2013/14

Despite their domination that has seen Bayern win 9 of their 11 Bundesliga games so far this season, recent matches have seen them have to come from behind to claim the victory. Their last three matches have all seen the Bavarian giants concede the first goal of the game and much like Roma, you could see a tidy profit come from betting on the opposition and cashing out when in a good position.

It remains to be seen whether these clubs can continue the breathtaking starts they have made to their respective campaigns. Garcia, Guardiola, Martino and Blanc will all be thinking about the curious case of Roberto di Matteo who was promptly sacked after leading Chelsea to 7 wins from their opening 8 games last season.

 

What can be said, though, is the clear favouritism with the 4-3-3 formation with the top clubs around Europe seems to paying off this season. The narrow midfield allows the team to control the games, but still have width through the forwards, giving them options all over the opposition half. Keeping the ball in the opponents half sees the teams create more goalscoring opportunities due to the intense pressure they’re inflicting on their opponents who are concentrating on not conceding so much, they almost forget to attack.