Who would best help improve France's European standing?
When the final round of Champions League group fixtures comes around next week, the attentions of Ligue 1 fans are likely to have drifted from the Camp Nou, where Paris Saint-Germain take on Barcelona in a blue riband fixture as they bid to cement top spot in Group F. Instead, many will be occupied by the prospect of events in Group C on the Tuesday, as Monaco meet Zenit Saint Petersburg in a winner-takes-all clash at the Stade Louis II.
Qualification for the last 16 is the prize, with a draw good enough for Monaco and Zenit needing a win to go through (despite already having 2 points more than the 5 that sealed their passage last season). It means more globally, however, than just the immediate futures of these two teams.
France and Russia have been locked in a battle royale since the beginning of the season, with the latter only just behind the former in UEFA’s co-efficient rankings. Leapfrogging the French for this season’s end would give the Russian Premier League one extra Champions League place from 2016 onwards, at Ligue 1’s expense.
It is has perhaps always been destined to come to this moment ever since the Champions League draw was made – in Monaco of course – back in late August. There is further irony in the fact that France will support a club that has hardly been universally popular in Ligue 1 circles over the years, for myriad reasons. Leonardo Jardim’s side have hardly thrilled neutrals either, scoring just 2 goals in their 5 group matches to date. Only APOEL Nicosia, with 1, have scored less in this season’s competition.
Either way, Monaco hardly look set for a repeat performance in 2014/15, with Saturday’s 2-0 defeat at Rennes leaving them in 10th place – though they are the 7th highest rated team on WhoScored (6.99) – and 7 points behind the current 3rd-placed side, Lyon. So their legacy looks like it will be just that as things stand.
Though it is clear that Monaco’s status and medium-term ambitions have changed in the light of James Rodríguez and Radamel Falcao leaving the club, they seemed like a safe pair of hands to take France forward in the Champions League when they originally qualified – moneyed and cosmopolitan.
As the struggle with Russia for co-efficient supremacy continues, this ‘viability’ of Champions League representatives matters more than ever. Europa League performance contributes to the ranking too, with Ligue 1 bottom club Guingamp’s likely qualification for the last 32 (they need only a draw at Dinamo Minsk on Matchday 6) a welcome bonus.
Yet the fairytales of recent seasons – notably Lille and Montpellier’s title wins in 2011 and 2012 respectively – have taken their toll on France’s status. Both finished bottom of their group stage tables in the season which followed their title wins (garnering a total of just 8 points between them), failures which both contributed to Ligue 1’s current predicament.
So in simple terms of being able to raise the co-efficient status, which team would be Ligue 1’s best bets? PSG’s qualification is a given, of course, and Olympique de Marseille are well set to get there automatically. One may think – with some justification – that the title is not necessarily a realistic aim for Marcelo Bielsa’s men despite Friday’s 2-0 win over Nantes keeping them on top of the domestic table, but their fast start to the campaign has at least given them a great chance of qualifying for the Champions League again after a season’s absence.
On the face of it, OM, the highest rated team in Ligue 1 (7.35), would be the big hitter that France needs to get its fortunes back on track. The club and squad has extensive Champions League experience. Of the current group, only new signings Romain Alessandrini, Doria and Michy Batshuayi and youngsters like Stéphane Sparagna have no track record in the competition, while captain Steve Mandanda has played in it 40 times.
The question is one of sustainability; not just on top of the table, and not just in terms of the rest of the season, but beyond. Bielsa’s methods are notoriously mentally and physically exacting, with the 3 defeats in 4 matches that preceded the more recent home wins over Bordeaux and Nantes suggesting that OM were feeling the pace already, even without European competition this season.
We must also consider the possibility that Bielsa’s resources will be weaker next season, with the deals of André Ayew and André-Pierre Gignac (11 goals in 15 games this season) set to expire in the summer.
Lyon, also without European commitments for the first time in nearly two decades after falling to Astra Giurgiu in the Europa League play-offs, have no problems with freshness. They are a young side based mainly on academy products, of course; 8 of the starting XI in Sunday’s game at Saint Etienne came through Tola Vologe (including returned veteran Steed Malbranque). Questions over their big match temperament after losing that derby so emphatically, however, are inevitable.
That performance by their neighbours put them back into the picture. Saint Etienne were magnificently efficient, scoring 3 times from just 5 shots on target in the derby, while Max Gradel put in the best performance by any of their players this season (8.95 rating). Whether this was a case of rising to the big occasion does remain to be seen, though.
Christophe Galtier’s side – handily placed in 5th, just a point behind Lyon – still have only 16 goals in 15 Ligue 1 matches despite Sunday’s haul, and the lack of goal threat from midfield is concerning. Romain Hamouma and Benjamin Corgnet, who struck 9 and 7 times respectively last season, are yet to score a Ligue 1 goal between them this time around.
The recent Willy Sagnol controversy has perhaps overshadowed Bordeaux’s good work, but their win over Lille – all but out of the picture, stuck in 14th and the league’s lowest scorers with a meagre 9 – on Sunday took them level on points with Lyon. They won praise from Sagnol for their “best defensive performance of the season”, and extended their current run to 4 wins in 5. Cheick Diabaté’s winner was his 6th of the season, but he is ably supported by Diego Rolán (5) and Wahbi Khazri (4).
Rennes, Monaco’s weekend conquerors, are an interesting proposition too, just 2 points further back and powered by the fine form of Paul-Georges Ntep (5 goals and 3 assists). Yet while the candidates are plenty, the surefire bankers are not. In the absence of convincing options, it is even more important that Monaco make the most of their big moment.