Why Netherlands will struggle to qualify for Euro 2016 in spite of Latvia drubbing
Guus Hiddink’s win-or-bust ultimatum seems to have worked well – the Dutch football team was firing on all cylinders against the hapless Latvians in the Amsterdam Arena on Sunday night. Yet again, Arjen Robben carried the Orange Army on his shoulders, with a fantastic display of verve and skill, as the home team left the European minnows in tatters.
The Oranje have now moved up to third place in Group A, meaning they either qualify directly to the showpiece in France or battle it out in the play-offs, from where they have every chance of qualifying, at least on paper.
But, there is no more damning indictment on Hiddink and his charges than the fact that they may have to sweat it out with the likes of Cyprus, Hungary, Montenegro, Scotland and Norway, to qualify for a tournament that has already been criticised for its bloated team-list. For, had it been a 16-team tournament like it has always been, Hiddink’s men would’ve had every chance of emulating Steve McClaren’s “Class of 2008”, and would’ve failed to qualify altogether.
The possibility of their title charge ending in the qualifiers seems like a very real proposition even now, considering the fixtures left for them. Also, with none of the negative and mitigating factors having been solved as yet, we might just see the second runners up of the FIFA World Cup failing to advance from the easiest of all qualifying groups. Here’s why.
Hiddink was the wrong choice
When Louis Van Gaal announced he’d be stepping down as the national team coach in March 2014, everybody expected the KNVB to anoint the tactically brilliant Ronald Koeman as his successor. The former Oranje defender had lifted Feyenoord back to prominence again, and is now part of a magnificent rebuilding process in the English South Coast, as manager of Southampton.
Instead, 67-year old veteran, Guus Hiddink was appointed the manager of the post-Brazil Dutch team. The decorated manager, who had taken the likes of PSV Eindhoven, South Korea, Australia and even Chelsea, albeit temporarily, to great heights, was a free agent at the time, having overseen failed projects with the Russian and Turkish national teams, and with the Russian side, Anzhi Makachkala. Needless to say, his appointment was met with understandable surprise, scepticism and cynicism.
The reasons for this are many. The Netherlands isn’t a team of bona fide superstars anymore, like how they were in the 1990s or even four years ago. Except for Robin Van Persie, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder, this team lacks a genuine star name, and is made up of a core of promising youngsters, with most of them plying their trade in the Eredivisie.
This lack of exposure to top-class European football, means most of the youngsters are raw between their ears, especially when it comes to big games. One look at the Dutch back-line, only reiterates this further. The likes of Daryl Janmaat, Joel Veltman, Stefan De Vrij, Bruno Martins Indi, Erik Pieters, Alex Buttner, Ron Vlaar and Gregory Van Der Wiel, among others, aren’t really going to inspire a sense of fear in the opposition.
Even their midfield, with the likes of Vurnon Anita, Jordy Clasie and Leroy Fer forming the squad list along with the more accomplished Kevin Strootman and Daley Blind, doesn’t belong to the creme de la creme of world football.
Such a team needs a tactically astute man at the helm of things – somebody who can mould his team into a solid, yet unspectacular unit, capable of grinding out results against strong teams, and equally capable of tearing teams apart on their day.
A man who can make the whole, much more than the sum of the parts. A man with clear ideas and strong conviction. Louis Van Gaal was all that, and much more. Guus Hiddink on the other hand, has never been much of a tactician.
The former Chelsea coach has always been more of a man-manager, who was adept at resolving dressing room disputes and clashes of egos, something Dutch teams of old were prone to, with their galaxy of superstars. The current Dutch team has kept infighting at a minimum, with only the childish spat between Klaas Jan Huntelaar and Van Persie adding a black mark to their new, united reputation. They do not need a tactically lacking manager with archaic ideas and notions in charge.
Tactical naivety
Hiddink began his second coming with his team putting up an innocuous showing against Italy, losing 2-0. Scrapping the hugely successful 3-5-2 which was seen in Brazil, Hiddink reverted to a flat 4-4-2 formation, playing both Van Persie and Huntelaar, two strikers of very similar strengths, together.
While this ploy works against a team like Latvia, expecting it to pay against the likes of Italy and Czech Republic is bordering on foolishness. He then inexplicably reverted back to 3-5-2 against Iceland, who played with a lone striker.
When Van Gaal faced a similar dilemma in Brazil, he quickly reverted his formation to a 4-4-2, from a 3-5-2, with Daley Blind moving from wing-back to midfield, as Janmaat and Martins Indi became the fullbacks of a back four. Hiddink is yet to show any of this tactical adaptability, wilting under the slightest signs of pressure, a man devoid of ideas.
This moves us to our second point, the presence of two forwards in the same line-up. The renaissance of the strike partnership started with the front pairing of Aguero and Dzeko at City, with the SAS of Liverpool, the strike pairing of Uruguay, and the success of the same in Juventus, bringing it back in vogue.
But all of the aforementioned partnerships worked because of the difference in styles of the two forwards. Aguero-Dzeko, Sturridge-Suarez, Suarez-Cavani, Tevez-Llorente – all of them being partnerships, wherein the forwards have different traits and feed off each other. Van Gaal used this to brilliant effect in Brazil, playing Robben in a hitherto untried withdrawn forward role, giving all sorts of headaches to defenders, who had to cope with him and Van Persie.
Hiddink on the other hand, has shunted Robben out to the wings, and plays Van Persie with Huntelaar up front, with Sneijder and Nigel De Jong forming the central midfield pairing. This has resulted in the team wearing a severely top-heavy look, with the incompatibility of the two forwards, further adding to their woes.
With the imminent return of Strootman, it would be foolish on the part of Hiddink to persist with the dual forward system. With the visits of Czech Republic and Iceland, along with the two fixtures against Turkey left, it is now or never for the Oranje.
What next?
Yesterday’s victory might prove counter-productive in the long run though, as it has papered over the widening cracks in the Dutch team. This is a team that inspires no confidence under the guidance of their present manager, and the dwindling contributions of their talismanic skipper doesn’t help.
One cannot help but compare the current Oranje side to the Manchester United team of last season. The loss of a great manager added to a successor who doesn’t know what he’s doing, has resulted in the team losing its identity. Indeed, Hiddink has a very Moyesian air about him right now, leaving his younger charges looking confused. The sooner he’s sacked, the better for the team.
Or else, they might suffer the ignominy of not being a part of Europe’s 24 best teams. And if at all they huff and puff their way to France, they might end up bearing the brunt of well oiled machines led by able managers.
Nothing less than a semifinal appearance will do for the Oranje faithful in France 2016. Right now, it seems far-fetched to say the very least. The defence has to buckle up, their captain has to rediscover his best days, and most importantly, they need another man leading their reign.
The times are uncertain for Agent Orange. Whether it explodes on opponents or implodes upon itself is a million dollar question. And right now, the latter seems a very distinct possibility. I hope I’ll have to eat my words in two years’ time.