Who will make the top four of the Premier League out of the big eight? - Part 1
It's fair to say there is potential for the 2016/17 Premier League to be one of the most hotly contested seasons in its history. Looking back on last year and the amazing way in which Leicester City refused to relinquish their grip at the top gives most teams belief that they too have a chance at glory.
There are 8 teams that have a reason to think that they should be able to claim one of the Champions league berths come the end of the season. In part one of four, we look at reigning Champions Leicester City and last season's runners-up, Arsenal's claim for a top 4 finish.
Leicester City - 2015/16 League position: 1st
It's no understatement to say that Claudio Ranieri's side performed miracles last season in winning the Premier League. The close season looked promising too when Jamie Vardy turned down a lucrative transfer deal to Arsenal pledging his future to the Midlands club. Alongside him, the acquisition of striker Ahmed Musa from CSKA Moscow in a record £16 million deal looked like another positive Ranieri move.
However, since then barely anything has gone smoothly. There are several issues that have hit the Foxes before the start of this season. N'Golo Kante's departure to Chelsea and Riyad Mahrez's on-off move to Arsenal are just a couple of off-field problems that the Tinkerman will need to address.
The Foxes recent form is worrying too. They have won one of their four friendlies so far, that being a 6-5 penalty win against Celtic in the International Champions Cup. Their 4-0 loss to PSG, the 4-2 defeat to Barcelona in the same tournament and the 2-1 reverse suffered against Manchester Utd. in the Community shield, will no doubt have a lot of fans looking at the season's opener with newly promoted Hull City as a must win.
Also read: FA Community Shield 2016: Leicester City 1-2 Manchester United - 5 talking points
There are also some statistical reasons as to why Leicester will find it hard to replicate the marvel of last season. Throughout Sir Alex Ferguson’s reign, Manchester Utd. won many Premier League titles. However, he has always considered winning back to back leagues as one of the most difficult jobs to do and for good reason. No club since 2009 has been able to do it. (and who was that? Fergie’s Man Utd.) Will the Leicester players be as hungry? Will Ranieri be as hungry?
The number of games is also a crucial factor. Leicester played a comparatively small amount of competitive fixtures last season, only 43. Their closest league rivals for so long, Tottenham played ten additional games. Was this one of the reasons for Spur's ultimately doomed title push and disappointing 3rd place? With the addition of the Champions League fixtures and added expectations, will a squad of 25 be big enough to compete in the league as well as the other competitions?
Claudio Ranieri's team will still be a difficult prospect for any Premier League side, but because every team will now be out to beat the Premier League Champions it is difficult to see how they will be able to repeat the feats of the 2016 season.
Top 4 verdict? - They won’t make it.
Arsenal - 2015/16 League position: 2nd
Arsene Wenger's ability to maintain the Gunner's position as a top four club is a fantastic achievement by any standards. His consistency during his reign is one of the reasons he is still running Arsenal 20 years on. He has led the London club to 18 consecutive top 4 finishes, a Premier League record.
Many fans and media critics however, suggest that his lack of trophies in recent seasons - particularly the Premier League - is a reason for him to be sacked. But while he maintains the club’s top 4 position year on year it's hard to see that the board at the Gunners will force him out.
It is still suggested that he is a top striker and a world class centre back short to really challenge for the title, and with that in mind, Arsenal's signings so far have been limited. Granit Xhaka, Rob Holding and Takuma Asano have so far joined a midfield-heavy squad that now numbers 34. Wenger has tried and failed so far on a number of targets, Jamie Vardy (Leicester), Gonzalo Higuaín (Juventus) and the ‘will he, won’t he’ move for Riyad Mahrez making sure that Arsenal fans are once again left in limbo as to their final squad shape before the start of the season.
Also read: Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger claims he is scared of the day he eventually retires
There are several positives that Gunners fans can hang on to when looking for reasons to believe that a top four place is still within their reach. The re-emergence of striker Chuba Akpom, with four goals in four games during the close season, will feel like a new signing in itself and gives the Arsenal manager fresh striking options. The performances that Aaron Ramsey gave for Wales during the Euro 2016 finals, added to the likes of Mesut Ozil, new £30 million signing Xhaka, Jack Wilshere and Santi Cazorla mean that Arsenal still possess one of the most talented midfield line-ups in the top flight.
With Arsenal unbeaten in friendlies during the close season, including a 3-2 win against top 4 rivals Manchester City on Sunday, Arsene Wenger's on-field preparations seem to be going according to plan. One area of concern for the Gunners manager are injuries to his defensive unit. Per Mertesacker will be out for around 4 months with a knee injury and Gabriel Paulista had to be stretchered off against Manchester City, but newly acquired centre back Rob Holding is available to provide cover as needed.
Will Arsene Wenger be able to make it a 19th consecutive top 4 finish for the Gunners this season, or will the chasing pack with the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United catch up and ultimately overtake them?
Top 4 verdict? - 4th. Just. They always do.