World Cup 2014: Permutations-combinations and Group of Death possibilities
The draw to determine the groups for next year’s World Cup in Brazil will take place tonight.
Next year’s World Cup is being billed as one of the strongest ever in recent history with none of the major teams missing out on qualification and plenty of top footballers hitting their peaks.
The one question that has been doing the rounds is the one concerning the proverbial Group of Death. Who are the teams that are likely to form a part of this treacherous grouping? What are the possibilities that can emerge?
Here’s a preview into what potentially lies in store:
First of all, here’s a look once again at the four pots for the draw:
Pot 1 (top eight seeds): Brazil, Spain, Argentina, Belgium, Colombia, Germany, Switzerland, Uruguay.
Pot 2: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Algeria, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ecuador.
Pot 3: Japan, Iran, South Korea, Australia, United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras.
Pot 4: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, England, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, France.
As you might have known by now, there are some basic ground rules and some additional technicalities that have been added by FIFA this time around.
A few things that are key here are the placement of the Pots – Pot 1 has the seeded teams, basically the top seven teams and the host nation Brazil in the FIFA world rankings. Pot 2 has the qualifiers from Africa and the two unseeded teams from South America – Chile and Ecuador. Pot 3 has the Asian qualifiers along with the ones from Central and North America. Pot 4 has the remaining unseeded European teams.
Then there’s the introduction of Pot X – which will temporarily hold the four South American seeds for a brief while – and one European team from Pot 4 will be moved to Pot 2. It is widely expected that this would be either England or France, and will be decided by an internal committee.
A lot of the draw actually hinges on which of the European teams is moved from Pot 4 to Pot 2.
So that team probably faces the trickiest proposition of them all as not only would they draw one of the top South American teams, but they would also draw another European team from Pot 4 like Netherlands or Italy.
I used a draw simulator to try and see the various groups that can possibly be thrown up by the end of the evening in Bahia. And there are some gruesome possibilities possible.
Combination 1 – France get drawn into Pot 2, draw Brazil
In this scenario, France become the European team to go from Pot 4 to Pot 2, and from Pot X they draw Brazil.
So that pits the 1998 finalists together in the same group. Honduras get pulled from Pot 3 and Russia join from Pot 4.
A Brazil-France fixture will be quite a delight especially for the local home crowd who will still be haunted by those painful memories from the final in Paris 16 years ago.
Russia, if they play to their potential, can trouble the two bigs, but playing in South American conditions is a different ball game altogether.
The other interesting groups that emerged in this draw were Groups F, G and H.
Group H will pit Germany and Portugal together and also have South Americans Ecuador and the Korea Republic. Portugal and Germany ended up in the same group in the Euros as well last year and it could make for a fantastic clash.
Group G will see England pitted with Belgium, Chile and Mexico. None of these sides are amongst the big names in international football, but they are amongst the most exciting and brimming with talent. Belgium and Mexico will be stern tests for England and Chile just recently outclassed the English on home turf at Wembley. It could be one of the most interesting groups with each of the teams standing a good chance of going through.
Group H will see two of the best attacking teams in the world in Colombia and the Netherlands face off against each other. The Dutch are good, but playing in home conditions, Colombia will be a real fight.
Combination 2 – France get drawn to Pot 2 and draw Uruguay, Brazil draw the Dutch, Spain draw Italy
Once again, France are the team moved to Pot 2 and this time they draw 4th place finishers from the last World Cup, Uruguay. Brazil will draw the Dutch, if you remember their brilliant clash at France ’98, you will know that we are in for a treat.
Spain get to play Italy again in Group B. The Spanish have had the edge in this matchup over the years, but the Italians have run them close a couple of times, most recently at this year’s Confederations Cup in Brazil. Add to the mix, a young, effervescent Chile side that is more than capable of causing an upset and the Koreans and it’s one of the more attractive groups.
Group F will have rivals Argentina and England face off in the latest installment of their World Cup face off. There have been some great, bad-blood battles between these two teams in the past. There may be a vast gulf in quality between the two teams, but expect England to put up a feisty battle against their old rivals.
Combination 3 – France go to Pot 2, draw Brazil and Croatia; Colombia-England, Belgium-Netherlands, Uruguay-Portugal
There is no clear Group of Death in this combination with an equitable distribution of good teams spread across the groups.
There will be some great matches on offer if this grouping comes to pass. Brazil taking on France, obviously merits watching, but Colombia, Cameroon, Mexico and England in a group will provide great viewing as well. So will Belgium and the Netherlands, two of the most exciting teams to watch in Europe. Switzerland will be no pushovers for Italy in Group D, while Ecuador in home conditions are always a different animal altogether.
Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal against Luis Suarez’s Uruguay in Group E – how about that for a matchup!
And Alexis Sanchez leading his Chilean side against his teammates at Barca in the Spanish side.
Combination 4 – England go to Pot 2, Group A becomes the Group of Death with Brazil and Italy in the mix
It’s a sight that many England fans will be dreading. England become the team to go to Pot 2 and, to much chagrin, draw the hosts Brazil. And as if that weren’t enough, they also draw Italy, who they lost to in the quarter-finals of last year’s Euros. Iran make up representation from Pot 3.
Brazil, you reckon, will have enough about them to take Group A, but there could be a huge fight for that second spot. Other interesting groups will be B – where bitter rivals Germany and the Netherlands are drawn together and H – which will have Spain and Portugal.
The most competitive group could be Group E, with Colombia, Cote d’Ivoire, Japan and France together. France, as seen, are not the force they used to be, and are quite unpredictable; Colombia as the local team and after their hugely impressive qualifying campaign, will be huge favourites; Japan showed everybody what they can do at the Confederations Cup, they were unlucky with a few results there; and Cote d’Ivoire are one of the best teams in Africa and known for their stamina and endurance might be able to brave the South American conditions a little better.
Combination 5 – Croatia move to Pot 2, drawn with Colombia and Portugal
Another scenario where there are no obivous Group of Death settings. Brazil-Italy in Group A will be fun, so will the Black Stars’ (Ghana) presence in the group. Spain, Chile and Mexico together in Group C promises much, so too the Swiss, French, USA and Nigeria in Group E.
Argentina and the Netherlands along with Ivory Coast in Group F is the closest to a Group of Death as one can get while Portugal slugging it out with Colombia and Croatia in Group H will also sustain interest.
Combination 6 – Greece move to Pot 2, Uruguay and the Dutch together with the Greeks and Koreans
Greece are the team to move to Pot 2 in this scenario and they end up drawing the Dutch from their continent and Uruguay.
Brazil and France again drawn in Group A while Spain and Italy in Group D also end up together again. Belgium, Cote d’Ivoire will trouble England in Group H.
And how about that – Argentina and Portugal together in Group F – Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo together in the same group. Though the clash, might be a little tilted in favour of the Argentines, with the squad oozing quality all over with the likes of Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria, Gonzalo Higuain, Carlos Tevez, Javier Pastore and Ezequiel Lavezzi all present to aid Messi.
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These are just a few of many combinations possible. There’s much excitement just simulating possible draws, it will be even more when the real thing happens.
One of the real good possibilities seems to be France and Brazil drawing each other and Spain and Italy doing likewise.
We’ll just have to wait and watch who draws who. Remember to tune in to our live coverage and minute-by-minute update of the event tonight from 08:30 pm onwards.