World Cup 2014 qualification permutations: Crucial matches for Croatia, Portugal and England
With around 243 days left for the big event to kick off at the Arena de Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the national teams are gearing up for the ultimate and penultimate round of qualifiers to stand a chance of competing in the biggest sporting event on the planet, which is returning to its ‘home’ after almost 64 years. While some of them have already booked their berth in the finals, stakes are high for the many exciting teams who are competing for limited spots. Europe, being the most popular footballing continent, has the highest number of team entries into the World Cup. 13 out of 53 European teams which have taken part in the qualifiers, become eligible for the finals draw.
The UEFA Leg
15th October, i.e, tomorrow, marks the final set of matches in the first round the qualifiers in the UEFA or European leg. All 9 group winners qualify directly to the finals, while the 8 best second placed teams battle it out in 2 legged playoffs for the 4 remaining spots. As of today, the standings of the teams in their respective groups as follows, click here. Five teams, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland have confirmed their World Cup spots. Let us now look at some of the crucial ties that take place tomorrow which can bring about some significant changes to the current scenario.
The ‘Oranje’ booked their place in the final 32 with a thumping win over Hungary
The FIFA rules state that, the points and and hence goals attained from the group matches against the last placed team in the group won’t be accounted in the playoff calculations. As it stands, among the teams placed second in their groups, Bulgaria, Croatia, Portugal, Ukraine, Iceland and Turkey could be potentially knocked out after tomorrow’s matches and Slovenia, Montenegro, Hungary, Denmark, Armenia and Romania have a chance of making into the playoffs. Lets take a deeper look into how these things pan out. To give a better picture, the following is the current table of second placed teams.
| Group | Team | Played | Won | Drew | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Sixth-placed team |
| G | Greece | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 19 | Liechtenstein |
| F | Portugal | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 | Luxembourg |
| H | Ukraine | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 | San Marino |
| I | France | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 | N/A |
| C | Sweden | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 14 | Faroe Islands |
| E | Iceland | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 13 | Cyprus |
| A | Croatia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 11 | Macedonia |
| D | Turkey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | Andorra |
| B | Bulgaria | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | ?1 | 7 | Malta |
Group A
|
Team
|
Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Belgium | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 25 |
| Croatia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 17 |
| Serbia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 11 |
| Wales | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 19 | ?11 | 9 |
| Scotland | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | ?6 | 8 |
| Macedonia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 11 | ?5 | 7 |
Fixtures
Serbia v Macedonia
Belgium v Wales
Scotland v Croatia – A must win for Croatia
Belgium made it to Brazil last week, thanks to a brace from the Beast, Lukaku. Croatia are in second place, but are still not assured of a playoff spot. If Croatia lose their match with Scotland, they can be in trouble. The last placed team in the group can potentially change. This can be either good or bad for Croatia. If Scotland ends up in last place, then Croatia will better its place in the playoff table. If Wales finishes last in the group, Croatia will be 1 goal shy of the present situation in the playoff table.
The problem for Croatia arises in the form of Group B team, Armenia. Armenia has an outside chance of finishing in the playoff table with 12 points and an variable goal difference, which when coupled with wins for either Turkey or Romania of Group D in their respective matches, will put Croatia as the worst second placed team in the playoff table, knocking them out of the competition. All this, will only happen if Croatia lose their last match against Scotland, and matches in other groups have their effect.
Group B
|
Team
|
Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Italy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 21 |
| Bulgaria | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| Denmark | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 12 | ?1 | 13 |
| Czech Republic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| Armenia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 11 | ?1 | 12 |
| Malta | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 22 | ?17 | 3 |
Fixtures
Denmark v Malta
Bulgaria v Czech Republic – A must win match for Bulgaria
Italy v Armenia – A must win for Armenia
Italy too have booked their seat in the World Cup finals after being drawn into a relatively easier qualifiers group. The second place battle in this group is a bit peculiar. Losing to last placed Malta, has actually helped Armenia stand a slim chance of making it to the playoffs, while the 4th placed Czech Republic will get knocked out of the tournament even if they win their tie against Bulgaria.
Meanwhile, Denmark or Bulgaria can qualify for the playoffs with wins at the expense of Group D’s Turkey who face Netherlands. If Armenia manage to finish in second place with a win over Malta, they will make the playoffs, given Croatia lose their Group A match. Everything is perfectly entangled at the moment. Moving on..
Group C
|
Team
|
Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Germany | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 25 |
| Sweden | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20 |
| Austria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
| Republic of Ireland | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | ?3 | 11 |
| Kazakhstan | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | ?13 | 5 |
| Faroe Islands | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 26 | ?22 | 1 |
Fixtures
Faroe Islands v Austria
Sweden v Germany
Ireland v Kazakhstan
Last time semifinalists and favorites this time, Germany had an easy path for their World Cup qualification. They have one of the most exciting squads with world class talent raring to win their first major trophy since 1996. Placed second in the group, Sweden, spearheaded by the one and only Zlatan Ibrahimovic reigned superior over the other teams in the group and entered the playoff round without any fuss.
Group D
|
Team
|
Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Netherlands | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 5 | 27 | 25 |
| Turkey | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Romania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 16 |
| Hungary | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 20 | ?1 | 14 |
| Estonia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 18 | ?12 | 7 |
| Andorra | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 28 | ?28 | 0 |
Fixtures
Hungary v Andorra
Turkey v Netherlands – A crucial, must win tie for Turkey
Romania v Estonia – A must win for Romania
Netherlands had a shocking EURO campaign last year, but the last time World Cup finalists made a point with some superb displays in the qualifiers. 32 goals in 9 matches ensured their berth in the finals in Brazil next year. The fight for the 2nd spot though, is pretty much straight forward with a win for one and loss for another among Turkey and Romania putting them in the playoffs. But Turkey will be up against the Oranje, So, Romania might be having a better shot at the next round.
Hungary have a very slim chance of going through to the playoff round. They play the last placed side, Andorra, which means their scoreline doesn’t matter. But, a win for Hungary and dropped points for Turkey and Romania, and a big loss for Group A’s Croatia, will see them playing in the 8 teamed second round of qualifiers.
Group E
|
Team
|
Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Switzerland | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 21 |
| Iceland | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| Slovenia | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 15 |
| Norway | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | ?3 | 11 |
| Albania | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | ?2 | 10 |
| Cyprus | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 15 | ?11 | 4 |
Fixtures
Cyprus v Albania
Norway v Iceland – A must win for Iceland
Switzerland v Slovenia – A must win for Slovenia
Underrated, Switzerland didn’t face much trouble in booking their name in the final 32 of the next summer’s World Cup. With the rest of the group having relatively low ranked teams the swiss maintained their continued appearances in top tournaments. Cyprus will remain the last placed team of the group which means it is either Slovenia or Iceland playing in the playoffs. Iceland need a win to guarantee that, else they will be depending on Slovenia losing the match against Switzerland. Slovenia will have to beat the Swiss and hope that Iceland loses to Norway in order to go through to the next round of qualifiers. In any case, it looks good for Iceland.