Player Focus: Would prolific Dost be foolish to swap Wolfsburg for Newcastle?

 

“Why would he go there?” countered Wolfsburg head coach Dieter Hecking to reports linking Bas Dost with Newcastle United. Why would one of Europe’s most prolific strikers last season trade in Champions League football with the second best team in Germany for a club that has become a graveyard for ambition under the greedy eye of Mike Ashley? He has a point.

It is clearly a subject that does not sit well with the Wolfsburg manager. “He can play next season in the Champions League with us,” he continued in an interview with German media outlet Wolfsburger Allgemeine. ”He will probably (play in the Champions League) neither in this nor in the next or the next year at Newcastle.”  

The chances are that Newcastle will never embrace Champions League football until they see the back of their disconnected owner and having taken eight years to be part of a squad ready to tackle UEFA’s prize competition, it would come as a surprise for Dost to shelve those ambitions for a move to Tyneside. 

Hard-fought journey

That feeling is even more apparent when you consider what a hard-fought journey it has been for Dost to get to this stage. The forward arrived at Wolfsburg from Heerenveen in 2012 as the Eredivisie top scorer with 32 goals, but like so many players that once dominated the Dutch league, he took his time before being able to make the sufficient adjustments required in order to make the step up to his new surroundings.

Dost only registered 12 league goals during his first two years at the Volkswagen Arena, missing most of the 2013/14 season through injury before eventually returning to find he had lost his place in the team to 35-year-old veteran Ivica Olic.

The 26-year-old had only started three league matches prior to the winter break last season and looked set to leave on loan before Hecking blocked his request. It’s extraordinary, perhaps even for him, that over the course of the next six months he would finish the campaign as one of the most prolific goalscorers on the continent.

In fact, only Lionel Messi (1.1) and Cristiano Ronaldo (1.4) averaged more goals per game than Dost (0.8) come the end of the season. The Dutchman was as influential in front of goal as Sergio Agüero, Diego Costa and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but he has incredibly only managed to draw official interest from Newcastle, which given their recent past, would seem like an ill-advised step for a striker that has only just returned to form, as Hecking justified.

Additionally, it has been reported that Newcastle have only turned their attentions to the Dutchman after failing to barter Queens Park Rangers down on their £15m valuation of Charlie Austin. Unbelievably, Dost was only Plan B for Newcastle, despite being one of the most potent strikers across the top 5 leagues in Europe, converting 37% of his attempts on goal last season. 

Rather than chase the lights and the allure of the Premier League, it would be wise for Dost to weigh up the repercussions that could accompany any decision to swap Wolfsburg for a club treading water.

Dost would not only be chucking away his first shot at Champions League football, but he would also be significantly downgrading personnel by leaving the German club. The combination of Kevin De Bruyne and Dost was the most lethal in the Bundesliga last season and with Andre Schurrle also flanking the Dutchman, it seems inconceivable that he would give that up to play alongside the likes of Yoan Gouffran and Sammy Ameobi – that is of course if Wolfsburg can fend off any bids for De Bruyne this summer. 

Learning from De Jong disappointment

Furthermore, if that wasn’t reason enough to stay away from St. James Park then Dost may also consider his international colleague Luuk de Jong’s torturous six-month pit stop at the club. Now flourishing once more back in the Eredivisie, De Jong will look back at his brief spell in the North East as a bitter disappointment.

Dost should be wary of following a similar path, with both players having taken their careers from the Eredivisie to the Bundesliga, and if Newcastle mount a serious bid, Dost could follow De Jong to the club - although the Wolfsburg striker would hope for better fortunes.

The Magpies signed De Jong on loan from Borussia Mönchengladbach for the conclusion of the 2013/14 campaign, but the 24-year-old failed to score in any of his 12 league appearances and has since returned to his homeland where he has found his feet once again, with 20 goals in 32 appearances for PSV.

This isn’t to suggest that Dost would definitely struggle at Newcastle, but it is also worth pointing out that another Dutchman, Siem De Jong, is going through a similarly tough spell at the club at the moment. Unlike Dost and Luuk, the 26-year-old skipped the Bundesliga and headed straight for the Premier League last season following seven successful years at Ajax. However, injuries and poor form only saw the Dutchman make one start in the Premier League all season.

So why might a player of Dost’s ilk want to join an underwhelming Newcastle side? All the signs have so far suggested the striker should think otherwise, although if Dost is forward-thinking then Newcastle could actually supplement his rise to the top faster, providing him with a shortcut to greater riches.

The Ashley reign has been notorious for maximising profits - buying economically before selling players on for more. While Newcastle have gone backwards, some of its players have still managed to go onto greater things. Yohan Cabaye, for example, left for PSG, whereas Mathieu Debuchy moved on to Arsenal. Before that, José Enrique joined Liverpool and Spurs snapped up Sébastien Bassong.

Of course the counter argument to this is that Dost could still end up at a European conglomerate with a fine showing in the Champions League with Wolfsburg next season, but a strong precedent has already emerged at Newcastle illustrating players can still make it to the top of the game by succeeding in arguably the toughest league in the world.

At the end of the day, Dost’s decision will only highlight what sort of a player he is. Foolish or not, there could be benefits to both choices. Leave for Newcastle and it would be fair to assume he would view the move as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. However, to stay at Wolfsburg would seem the best option, and it would also repay the faith Hecking showed in him when he decided to keep him in December.

By all means, Dost may not even have a say in the matter. After all, Wolfsburg have already signed Gladbach forward Max Kruse this summer. Was he brought in as Dost’s replacement?

Written by Josh Wright