Would Luis Suarez secure or scuttle Arsenal's Champions League run?
Liverpool’s Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez has been subject to a bid from Arsenal. (Getty Images)
We all agree on one fact: Luis Suarez is a gifted footballer.
Beyond that, Gooners have a lot to sort out. Some point to his goal-scoring prowess as incontrovertible proof that we must sign him; others, like me, are more circumspect, questioning his value in light of the various controversies and suspensions that he has incurred. Put in another way, would he help or hurt us?
We’ve been on the knife’s edge of Champions League qualification for the last few seasons, relying just as much on the faltering form of others as on our own strong finishes in the final run-in. It took a last-gasp goal in the 52nd minute of the final game of the season to secure fourth place this year.
As we look at Suarez’s 23 league goals this year, it’s tantalisingly easy to place those goals here and there and—presto!—a loss here becomes a draw, a loss there becomes a win, a draw over there becomes a win, and we’re in first place.
Of course, it’s not that easy, but it’s entertaining. On the subject of entertainment, let’s entertain two rather large if’s: one, if Suarez can repeat his form; and two, if Suarez can avoid suspensions. With those in place, we’d be virtually assured of a higher league finish, and perhaps further progress in league, FA and Champions League competitions.
However, reality has a way of dashing these sorts of hopes. Securing the services of a prolific scorer can sometimes backfire as his presence can stunt the development of other players, cause the offense itself to stagnate, and sacrifice team success at the altar of individual glories.
I’m not saying that Suarez is this kind of player by any means, but it’s worth considering his impact on the squads for which he has played. To wit: the only time that a Suarez-led team has finished in first place is Ajax in the 2010-11 season—the season that saw Suarez leave in the January transfer-window after his first bite.
In fact, before he left in January 2011, Ajax was in third place, six points behind PSV Eindhoven, having taken 41 of 63 points (65%). After Suarez left, Ajax surged to first place, taking 32 of their last 39 points (82%), despite not making any significant signings to replace him.
Taking 82% of the points over the course of a Premier League season would net a team 94 points, just one below Chelsea‘s record of 95 in 2004-05. Moving on, Ajax has won the Eredivisie every year since Suarez left.
This looks to be a little bit of addition by subtraction. Despite losing their most-prolific scorer, Ajax finished that season on a run of form that would be the envy of any team anywhere.
And what of his impact on Liverpool?