What is the projected cutline at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge?
The Charles Schwab Challenge is not a Signature Event, which means it has a cut. A few Signature Events do make cuts, and the vast majority of regular tournaments do as well. This one is no different, which makes the second round rather important.
The second round is underway, and when it's done, roughly half of the field will go home for the weekend and look ahead to their next potential start. Before that happens, we can look ahead at what the projected cut line is.
Per Data Golf, the most likely cut is going to be one under par. There's a 61.9% chance of that being the line. If it transpires, then it will be the end of the road for Keith Mitchell, Austin Eckroat, and Jake Knapp.
However, it is subject to change. The next most likely option is even to par, which has a 36.8% chance of being the final cut. That would be bad news for Neal Shipley, Luke List, and Davis Riley.
There is a minuscule (1.3%) chance that -2 ends up being the cut, which would keep Scottie Scheffler, Gary Woodland, Eric Cole, and Jordan Spieth outside the cut line.
It's probably going to change from those estimates, but those players are currently in danger. Others, like Erik Van Rooyen, Sami Valimaki, Adam Schenk, and Joel Dahmen, are going to miss the cut anyway.
Scottie Scheffler started Charles Schwab Challenge impressively
Scottie Scheffler won his last start before the PGA Championship, which was the CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He then won the PGA Championship and entered play as the favorite at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
He cemented his status as arguably the best golfer in the world by opening with an eagle on the very first hole. With a birdie to follow, the tournament looked like moving in favor of Scheffler. He was three under through two and looked unstoppable.
A back ailment has flared up, but Scheffler has since struggled mightily. In the 34 holes since those two, Scheffler has shot two over par. He's now one under and done for the day, which means he'll have to hope for an advantageous cut line.
If not, his brilliant start at the Charles Schwab Challenge would be dashed, and he'd miss the cut for the first time since the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. He has currently made 54 cuts in a row, so missing here would bring about an end to a really impressive streak.
As it stands, even if he does make the cut, he faces an uphill battle to catch the leaders and win his third straight start. John Pak is seven under but hasn't taken a swing today, and Ben Griffin is -11 through two, 10 strokes ahead of Scheffler.