Which big-name golfers are in danger of missing the projected cutline at the 2025 US Open?
The US Open is a Major tournament, which means it has a cut. All four Majors have a cut, while some PGA Tour Signature Events do not. LIV Golf events don't, either. The Majors do, and that means that in a few hours, roughly half the field will go home.
The current projected cut line is either +6 (44.5% chance) or +7 (51.5% chance). That could be really bad for several big-name golfers. Even as some players have not begun their second rounds, they're in danger.
According to Data Golf, Patrick Reed, despite his impressive albatross in round one, is currently tied for 94th. He has a 45.1% chance of making the cut. Davis Riley has a minuscule 3.2% chance as of this writing.
Rory McIlroy had a bad opening round. He has just started his second round with a double bogey. If he doesn't reverse course, he'll go home early. He's got a 38% chance to make it.
Tom Kim, Wyndham Clark, Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Min Woo Lee, and Edoardo Molinari all have a less than 50% chance of making it right now.
The cut changes all the time, because every single player's performance on every single hole affects the placement of everyone else. Someone might be tied for 60th, but another player's score pushes them up and forces them into a tie for 65th, which isn't going to make the cut at the US Open.
Which struggling stars are safe from the cut at the US Open?
Barring just a few exceptions, the field at the US Open has struggled. The round-one leader enjoyed a historic round to finish four under. Most were above par, so the poor scorelines of many stars don't always indicate that they're in danger of missing the cut.
Scottie Scheffler, for example, shot three over on Thursday (June 12) and one over in his second round. He's +4, but that ties him for 36th and, per Data Golf, gives him a 100% chance to make the cut.
Bryson DeChambeau, also currently at +4, has a 74.3% chance to make it despite a bad score. Ryan Fox is +5, but he has a 100% chance of playing this weekend.
Corey Conners is six-over par, which puts him nine back of the lead. He still has a 99.7% chance to play on through the weekend. So do Matt Wallace and Michael Kim. Harris English is three over through two in round 2, but he stands a 70% chance to move on.
Much of this has to do with whether or not the player is done. Scheffler, for example, is done playing. His score is locked, and it's above the highly likely cut lines. DeChambeau isn't locked, so his exact same score has a lower chance because he might slip.