NFL: Oakland at NYJ Preview

McGloin looks to stop the Raiders skid against the Jets

This week, Matt McGloin (Penn State) and the Oakland Raiders (4-8) come off a tough road loss to face very beatable New York Jets (5-7) team. Though the Jets have just one more win than the Raiders, they actually have a better mathematical chance to make the playoffs. Geno Smith (West Virginia) has shown very few glimpses of his prolific college self at times in his rookie campaign, and it will be up to the silver and black defense to keep that to even less.

Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan has said he is sticking with Geno, who has got to break out of the slump he is in if the Jets want to make that mathematical playoff chance a reality. Smith and the Jets offense are averaging less than five yards per play (ranks 29/32) and go three and out just under a third of the times they take the field (32/32).

But the Jets won’t just hand this one to Oakland, Oakland has to get better. In five of the Raiders’ eight losses, they held a lead in the second half. However, they will have to do so with their running game in question. Rashad Jennings (Liberty) left the Cowboys game early with a concussion.

Luckily for the Raiders and him though, the Thursday game was far enough away that he may be able to recover by Sunday. A gameday decision for Oakland, he would be the only healthy running back on the Oakland roster. Darren McFadden (Arkansas) and Jeremy Stewart (Stanford) are both also out with injuries.

If Jennings can go, he’ll surely get almost every carry. But if he can’t, fullback Marcel Reece (Washington), FB/RB Jamize Olawale (North Texas), and CB Taiwan Jones (Eastern Washington) are each slotted to split the carries. Reece is primarily a blocking Fullback, Olawale was an undrafted free agent last year who has spent time with Dallas’ practice squad, and Jones is a defensive player who spent time playing running back in college.

Obviously, none of these sound like great options compared to Jennings, who had almost 600 rushing yards in his five games this year.

With so many question marks surrounding the rushing game, that much more falls on the shoulders of undrafted rookie Matt McGloin. McGloin has shown thus far that he does deserve to be in the National Football League. In his last two road starts he has thrown for 452 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception.

The timing of that interception was crucial, however, because Dallas took the turnover and started a long scoring drive with under nine minutes left in the game. As McGloin continues to grow as a starting QB, he has to do so without Raiders top wide out Denarius Moore (University of Tennessee), who he will again be missing this Sunday. But, McGloin has many capable receivers in Rod Streater (Temple), Jacoby Ford (Clemson), and Andre Holmes (Hillsdale).

Look for McGloin to have a good day, because the Jets rank 25/32 in passing yards allowed and 21/32 in passing touchdowns allowed.

How Oakland Will Win

Jennings Can Go

The Raiders need to get the running game going against the Jets, and without Jennings healthy that will be really hard. Getting the ground game going will help McGloin and the passing game, as well as keep Geno Smith off of the field.

McGloin Exploits Jets

The Jets have a bad pass defense, simply put. If McGloin puts together a good game through the air, it could be too much for Geno and the Jets to comeback from. The Jets haven’t scored a touchdown in eight quarters of play. If the Raiders go up early, the Jets may have trouble coming back.

The Defense Holds

As I just mentioned, the last three weeks Geno Smith and the Jets offense have been awful. They haven’t scored a touchdown in eight quarters, and in the last twelve quarters they’ve only reached the endzone twice. This game could come down to something as simple as the Raiders scored once, and the Jets didn’t. But for that to happen, the Raiders D (21/32 in points allowed) has to step up.

How New York Will Win

Geno Finds a Spark

In the first nine games of the year, Geno Smith looked at the very least like he could manage a winning team, as the Jets went 5-4, and Geno had multiple games with over 200 yards passing. Against the Bills, he even looked like he could lead a team, throwing for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns, while adding his own rushing score.

In their 0-3 skid, the jets have only scored 2 touchdowns total, and Geno is averaging just over 100 yards through the air. If New York wants this one, they’ll need to get more out of Smith.

The Jets Defense Bottles Up McGloin

The Raiders are having their own issues with the running game, and when you add in that the Jets rush defense is 7/32 in rushing touchdowns allowed, the Raiders may have to score through the air. If the Jets defense can bottle up McGloin, whether it’s rushing the passer or picking him off with the coverage, they could win a low scoring contest.

The Jets Find a Way to Score the Football

And it could really just be that simple. The last 3 weeks, the Jets offense has stunk. Period. If they can figure out how to get in the endzone, something they haven’t done since mid November, they may be able to get back into the win column.

Odd fact of the game you’re sure to hear from an informed commentator:

Since winning at Pittsburgh in 2009, the Oakland Raiders have lost 12 straight in the Eastern Time Zone. Further, the Raiders have been outscored 377 – 198 in those contests. Blame it on the time change, playing on the road, in the cold, or whatever, but the Raiders have had a recent history of bad games on the Eastern Seaboard.