3 potential outcomes of the Gilbert Burns vs Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson clash at UFC 264
The co-main event of a stacked UFC 264 card on July 10 is a mouthwatering welterweight bout between Gilbert Burns and Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson.
Burns is on the back of his heartbreaking loss to UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 and has opened as the early underdog. Thompson, meanwhile, has wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal in his last two fights.
The bout between Burns and Thompson is a captivating clash of styles and has all the makings of an instant classic. Here are three possible outcomes of the UFC 264 clash between Gilbert Burns and Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson.
#3 An early striking battle that could go either way
A full-blown early striking battle between Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson would simply be too close to call.
Burns is a fighter who likes to pressure his opponents in the initial stages of a fight. He has power in his fists, and had Usman in all sorts of trouble in the first round before bizarrely allowing 'The Nigerian Nightmare' to worm his way back into the fight. Importantly, 'Durinho' relies on closing distance for the effectiveness of his striking.
Thompson, on the other hand, is an entirely different case. A range fighter with arguably the best footwork in the game and an arsenal of kicks, 'Wonderboy' uses angles impeccably and can change the course of a fight from any position.
Who will prevail if it comes down to an early striking battle? Stephen Thompson will definitely have the edge, but Gilbert Burns' power and quickness off the blocks might just make it an even contest that could go either way.
#2 Gilbert Burns manages to take the fight to the ground and submits 'Wonderboy'
With a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Gilbert Burns will want to take the fight against Stephen Thompson to the ground. 'Wonderboy', who primarily has a karate and kickboxing background, is training jiu-jitsu at the moment but will be at a significant disadvantage.
However, the 38-year-old is one of the hardest to take down in the UFC. He has a 78% takedown defense rate in the UFC, with even a credentialed wrestler like Tyron Woodley struggling to put 'Wonderboy' on his back.
Burns will have an uphill task on his hands to get Thompson to engage in grappling exchanges, in which 'Durinho' will undoubtedly have the edge. And if he is able to take the American down even once or twice, perhaps from the clinch, he would immediately become a massive submission threat.
Speaking about a potential fight against Gilbert Burns earlier this year, Thompson said:
"If I get taken down close to the cage, my goal is to get my back to the cage asap (and stand back up using the cage). Out in the open... he can take that situation down the rabbit hole that I am not able to get out of. Up against the cage, if I get myself up against the cage... He's not gonna take my back. Hopefully I can defend every one of his takedowns or he is going to go out there and take me down one time and next thing you know I am being choked out... and sometimes, that's the way the fight game is."
#1 'Wonderboy' stuffs takedowns and outpoints Burns to a decision victory
This seems like the most likely outcome of the UFC 264 fight between Gilbert Burns and Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson.
It's tough to envision Burns being able to take Thompson down on a consistent basis. So many accomplished wrestlers have tried and failed, and 'Durinho' just isn't on their level. If he's not able to take 'Wonderboy' down, and his takedown accuracy rate of 35% points towards the same, Burns might be in for a torrid time on the feet if his early explosiveness and pressure doesn't pay off.
Thompson is a master of outpointing fighters from a distance, with wins over accomplished strikers like Jorge Masvidal, Robert Whittaker, Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. He's also extremely difficult to hit, making him an outright favorite to edge a comfortable decision.
Stephen Thompson, who has a four-inch reach advantage, could engage with Gilbert Burns from range and regularly chip away at the body and legs with kicks to end up on the right side of the judges' scorecards.