3 reasons why Alex Pereira will win at UFC 300 - and 2 reasons why he will lose
This weekend in the headline bout of UFC 300, Alex Pereira will defend his light heavyweight title for the first time when he faces former champ Jamahal Hill.
If Alex Pereira can win this fight, he should be well on his way to establishing himself as a UFC legend - so can he do it?
For fans of 'Poatan', there are plenty of reasons to believe that he can come out on top. Unfortunately, there are a couple of reasons why he could fall to defeat, too.
With that in mind, here are three reasons why Alex Pereira will win at UFC 300 - and two reasons why he will lose.
#3. Jamahal Hill is unlikely to attempt to capitalize on Alex Pereira's weaknesses
Everyone knows that Alex Pereira is perhaps the most deadly kickboxer to enter the UFC in recent years.
Not only did 'Poatan' bring a serious amount of top-level experience with him from his days in the rings of GLORY, but he's also proven that his style works inside the octagon.
However, the big question around Pereira in the world of MMA is how good he is on the ground.
Pereira does hold a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, as he was awarded it following his win over Israel Adesanya at UFC 281 in 2022. However, we've never seen him grappling for any kind of extended period inside the octagon.
Were 'Poatan' facing Magomed Ankalaev, for instance, this weekend, that would be worrying. However, in Jamahal Hill, the Brazilian is instead facing a fighter who is equally as unproven as he is on the ground.
'Sweet Dreams' has made his name by striking, and when he found himself on the ground in his 2021 bout with Paul Craig, he had his elbow dislocated, leading to his only loss in the UFC.
Essentially, it's unlikely that Hill will attempt to capitalize on the potentially huge hole in Pereira's game, meaning that the Brazilian is almost certainly more likely to win.
#2. Alex Pereira does not need to worry about Jamahal Hill's range
Ignoring a win that was later overturned due to a positive test for marijuana, Jamahal Hill is an impressive 7-1 inside the octagon.
'Sweet Dreams' has essentially made his name off the back of his slick striking, as he's finished five of his wins and took lopsided decisions in the other two.
Hill's most notable UFC win saw him pick apart Glover Teixeira last year in one of the most one-sided title fights in recent memory. 'Sweet Dreams' kept Teixeira on the outside throughout the fight, using his jab to put together nasty combinations that hurt the Brazilian more than once.
However, Hill's style seems to be prevalent on enjoying an advantage in range and distance. Against Alex Pereira, he will not enjoy such physical advantages.
Unlike Teixeira, who was shorter and had a lesser reach, Pereira is equal to 'Sweet Dreams' in both areas. He's also well-used to facing longer opponents from his kickboxing days.
Essentially, Pereira is not going to make the same flat-footed mistakes Teixeira made in his fight with Hill.
Given that he holds the same range as 'Sweet Dreams', the former champ will probably find it very difficult to deploy his usual gameplan against Pereira.
Therefore, the more experienced striker, 'Poatan', is likely to win.
#1. Alex Pereira's brutal power has carried over to 205 pounds
The biggest strength that Alex Pereira has in any fight in the octagon is his brutal punching power.
'Poatan' is an excellent technical striker, of course, but like other legends of the UFC before him, he possesses the ultimate equalizer in his hands. Essentially, if Pereira can land his coffin-nail left hand to any foe, the fight is probably over.
Sean Strickland found that out in his bout with Pereira when he made the error of hanging his hands. Israel Adesanya, meanwhile, was winning his clash with Pereira before he felt the Brazilian's power and ended up being TKO'd shortly after.
Both of those fights came at 185 pounds, of course - so has Pereira's power translated up to 205 pounds?
Judging by his showing against Jiri Prochazka last year, the answer is yes. The second round of that fight saw Pereira drop 'BJP' with a heavy left hand and finish him off with elbows shortly after.
Given that Jamahal Hill's chin has not really been tested in the octagon just yet, it's probably fair to question whether his jaw will stand up to Pereira's power.
With the likelihood that 'Poatan' will land his deadly left hook at least once, it seems likely that his power will ensure a big victory this weekend.
While Alex Pereira does seem to have some advantages in this weekend's fight, there are some reasons for 'Poatan' to be concerned.
#2. Alex Pereira is still largely unproven at 205 pounds
Alex Pereira's light heavyweight title victory last year set a record for the fastest time taken for any fighter to become a two-division champ in the UFC.
Despite this, there are still some questions around 'Poatan' at 205 pounds.
Sure, his big title win over Jiri Prochazka was preceded by a victory over another former titleholder in Jan Blachowicz, but that win was certainly not flawless by any means.
The Polish star took 'Poatan' down in all three rounds of that fight, and also landed some strong strikes on him throughout, too. While he never had Pereira on the ropes at any stage, and tired himself out badly in the process, the level of control he exerted on the Brazilian was concerning.
Pereira did look more impressive in his fight with Jiri Prochazka, but the wild 'BJP' was always more likely to play into the hands of 'Poatan'.
Essentially, despite all of his success, Pereira is still very unproven as a light heavyweight.
Jamahal Hill, on the other hand, is more battle tested, boasting wins over Johnny Walker, Glover Teixeira, Thiago Santos, and Ovince Saint Preux.
Pereira was able to squeak past Blachowicz, but in a five-round clash against 'Sweet Dreams', he may well find things a lot harder.
#1. Alex Pereira's striking is not flawless in the octagon
Alex Pereira is undoubtedly one of the most fearsome strikers in UFC history. Despite only being part of the roster for a relatively short time, 'Poatan' has established himself as a truly dangerous fighter, capable of destroying opponents with his punches, knees and kicks.
However, while he has picked up a number of big wins already and has also claimed UFC titles in two different weight classes, his striking hasn't proven to be flawless.
Pereira ate plenty of big shots against both Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka, although his chin was strong enough to hold up to the power of both men.
However, in his second fight in the UFC with Israel Adesanya, 'Poatan' suffered the only knockout loss of his MMA career, eating a brutal combination in the second round that left him out cold.
That knockout came from a major error on the behalf of Pereira - the Brazilian got overzealous in chasing another knockout of 'The Last Stylebender', leaving himself wide open.
Essentially, then, while 'Poatan' is a truly phenomenal kickboxer, he is just that: a great striker with a lot of power, nothing more and nothing less.
He isn't impossible to hit, and he isn't impossible to knock out, and with that in mind, that means that a striker as good as Jamahal Hill will have a chance of victory over him.