3 reasons why Justin Gaethje will win at UFC 300, and 2 reasons why he will lose
This weekend at UFC 300, Justin Gaethje will attempt to defend his 'BMF' title against former featherweight kingpin Max Holloway.
His upcoming fight with Max Holloway will undoubtedly be one of the biggest challenges of Justin Gaethje's career, so will he be able to come out on top? There are arguments for and against 'The Highlight' in this fight, but one thing is for certain - it should be a fantastic clash.
Here are three reasons why Justin Gaethje will beat Max Holloway at UFC 300 - and two reasons why he will lose.
#3. Justin Gaethje's leg kicks could lead him to victory over Max Holloway
Both Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway are amongst the best strikers in the modern history of the UFC. However, despite their greatness, both men possess a handful of weaknesses. Holloway has lost just three times since 2019, and all three of his losses came to the same fighter - Alexander Volkanovski.
While their second bout was remarkably close, with an argument that 'Blessed' could have won, the same cannot be said for their other two clashes. The first fight, though, is the one worth considering when it comes to the outcome of Holloway's upcoming fight with Gaethje.
That fight saw Volkanovski pick Holloway apart by primarily using his leg kicks to slow the Hawaiian down. Before 'Blessed' could react, his base had been taken from him and he could not get his combination work going.
Worryingly for Holloway in this fight, Gaethje has some of the best leg kicks in the UFC and is renowned for chopping his foes down in the octagon. Holloway may have adjusted since taking so many leg kicks from Volkanovski, but if 'The Highlight' can slow him down by unleashing them this weekend, they could definitely prove to be a key to victory for him.
#2. Justin Gaethje possesses more power than anyone Max Holloway has ever fought
It's notable that despite fighting some of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC, most notably Alexander Volkanovski, Dustin Poirier and Yair Rodriguez, Max Holloway has never been beaten by KO or TKO.
Remarkably, this isn't because the Hawaiian has a perfect defensive game. In fact, 'Blessed' probably absorbs far more shots than many observers would deem healthy. Instead, he relies on his iron jaw to survive in fights, often willingly eating punches to fire heavier ones back.
It's an approach that has worked for him so far, but it might run him into trouble this weekend against Justin Gaethje. 'The Highlight' not only possesses more power in his strikes than anyone Holloway has come up against before, but he's also arguably the heaviest hitter in the history of the lightweight division.
Essentially, if anyone can crack Holloway's iron chin, it's Gaethje. Nobody expected him to be able to take out Tony Ferguson, another fighter renowned for his toughness, after all, and he did it.
Sure, 'Blessed' may fight less recklessly in this bout, but given his personality, that seems doubtful. If he does continue to fight in the same manner, it might well get him into serious trouble.
#1. Max Holloway may not have the power to truly hurt Justin Gaethje at 155 pounds
One well-worth factor noting coming into this fight is the fact that Max Holloway doesn't have a lot of experience fighting at 155 pounds. In fact, 'Blessed' has only made one appearance in the lightweight division before this weekend, fighting against Dustin Poirier in a losing effort back in 2019.
That fight was an epic brawl, but it was notable that while Poirier stunned Holloway on more than one occasion, the same didn't happen the other way. Sure, 'Blessed' was able to back Poirier up with his combination work, but he didn't have 'The Diamond' on the ropes at any stage.
Based on this, it could be suggested that Holloway doesn't necessarily carry heavy power as a lightweight. In fact, even at 145 pounds, he's more known for overwhelming his foes with volume than turning their lights out in one shot.
Sure, 'Blessed' could overwhelm Justin Gaethje with volume at UFC 300 this weekend, but it's unlikely that he carries the power to really hurt 'The Highlight'. Instead, like he found in his fight with Poirier, he might struggle to make an impact, and that could lead to a Gaethje win.
There are plenty of reasons why Justin Gaethje will beat Max Holloway this weekend, but here are two reasons why he could lose instead.
#2. Max Holloway's combinations and cardio can overwhelm Justin Gaethje
Max Holloway is a great fighter with a killer instinct, but, arguably, his best weapon is his cardio.
'Blessed' never slows down during a fight, even a five-round affair, and he's well used to dragging opponents into deep water and drowning them with his volume and combinations.
Justin Gaethje is undoubtedly a hard hitter and he's remarkably tough, too. However, 'The Highlight' has shown vulnerability to the kind of approach preferred by Holloway before.
Most notably, his losses to both Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier back in 2018 saw him wilt down the stretch when his opponents pressured him back, worked him over to the body and refused to let him breathe.
Holloway is a master at that kind of approach, and if he can back Gaethje up without taking a haymaker in return, then he could definitely force 'The Highlight' into uncomfortable territory.
'Blessed' is almost certainly tough enough to survive the early rounds of this fight, and if it goes late, and he can force Gaethje onto his back foot, it could lead to a loss for the current 'BMF' champion.
#1. Justin Gaethje is willing to take too much damage
One similarity that Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway definitely share is a willingness to take a big shot to give one - or two - back.
Both men have strong chins, meaning that the approach doesn't tend to cause them too many problems. As everyone knows, though, in MMA, durability can vanish in the blink of an eye.
So which of Holloway or Gaethje is more likely to have become more fragile in recent years? While 'Blessed' has taken three losses to Alexander Volkanovski, he has still never been stopped.
Gaethje, on the other hand, does appear to be slightly less durable than he once was, as we saw him dropped by Charles Oliveira in his loss to the Brazilian, and Michael Chandler also hurt him.
Sure, there's the chance that Holloway's power doesn't translate well to 155 pounds, but his volume is likely to be just as effective, and if Gaethje is willing to eat too many shots, it's a huge risk for him.
If his chin does give way, then Holloway is more than capable of capitalizing, meaning the Hawaiian could have his hand raised this weekend.