3 reasons why Stephen Thompson will beat Gilbert Burns at UFC 264 and 2 reasons why he'll lose
UFC 264 is still more than a month away, but understandably, UFC fans are already becoming excited for the event.
Not only does UFC 264 feature Conor McGregor’s third fight with Dustin Poirier, but in the co-main event, Stephen Thompson faces Gilbert Burns.
Thompson vs. Burns is a fight between two of the UFC’s premier welterweights. There could well be a title shot at champion Kamaru Usman in line for whoever wins.
So with that in mind, here are three reasons why Wonderboy will beat Burns and two reasons why he’ll lose.
3 reasons why Stephen Thompson will win at UFC 264
#1 Stephen Thompson’s striking style is almost impossible to counter
While he’s never held the UFC welterweight title, it’s still hard to argue with the idea that Stephen Thompson is one of the greatest strikers in UFC history.
Wonderboy has wins over the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Robert Whittaker and Rory MacDonald. But more to the point, his karate-based striking style has proven to be almost impossible to counter.
Masvidal, Whittaker and Vicente Luque – all knockout artists in their own right – couldn’t come close to even hitting Wonderboy cleanly.
And while he was defeated by Anthony Pettis, Darren Till and Tyron Woodley, all three losses came with a caveat.
Till managed to engage Thompson in a point-fighting match and received a somewhat favorable hometown decision. Pettis knocked him out with a highly low-percentage strike, and Woodley won a very close fight based on the waning seconds of the fifth round.
So can a striker like Gilbert Burns, who possesses heavy hands but lacks truly sharp technique, really be capable of defeating Wonderboy on the feet?
In all honesty, it feels doubtful. And if that isn’t the case, then we’re more likely to see Wonderboy snipe at Durinho from a distance, picking him apart for either a decision or late stoppage.
#2 Gilbert Burns may be suffering a hangover from his loss to Kamaru Usman at UFC 258
Prior to 2021, Gilbert Burns was undoubtedly on the best run of his UFC career.
After moving up to 170lbs in 2019, Durinho took out Alexey Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson and Demian Maia before picking up the biggest win of his career over former UFC welterweight champ Tyron Woodley.
But of course, Burns was unforgettably stopped by current UFC welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman in their epic clash at UFC 258 earlier in 2021.
The fight was a dramatic one that saw Burns hurt Usman badly with punches in the opening round.
The Brazilian was unable to capitalize and finish the champ, though. Burns eventually fell to a nasty TKO loss in the third round.
Burns didn’t do badly in the fight by any means. In fact, he probably came closer to beating Usman than any other fighter has in the UFC.
But a loss like that might be tricky to bounce back from, particularly from a psychological standpoint.
And that means Stephen Thompson will almost certainly enjoy a mental edge going into their clash at UFC 264.
#3 Stephen Thompson has excellent takedown defense
Gilbert Burns may have been using his heavy hands to take him to victory in recent years. However, the Brazilian is also a fantastic grappler who ranks amongst the best submission experts in the UFC welterweight division.
But to use that grappling game against Stephen Thompson, he’ll have to get Wonderboy to the ground in the first place.
And judging on Thompson’s past UFC fights, that won’t exactly be an easy task.
Wonderboy has a fantastic takedown defense, defending 78% of the attempted takedowns he’s faced inside the octagon since his debut in 2012.
And he hasn’t been facing bad wrestlers, either. Wonderboy has beaten Johny Hendricks, one of the highest-credentialed wrestlers in UFC history. Thompson also defended the majority of takedown attempts thrown at him by Tyron Woodley.
Burns has strong takedowns in his own right, but he isn’t a wrestler on the level of an NCAA Division I All-American.
And if those fighters couldn’t get Thompson down, then it feels unlikely that Burns will either. It means Durinho will be forced to fight on his feet, where he’s likely to be outgunned.
2 reasons why Stephen Thompson will lose at UFC 264
#1 Father Time may have caught up with Wonderboy
Despite all his apparent advantages in this fight, one thing may stand against Stephen Thompson, and that’s his age.
Despite his Wonderboy nickname, Thompson is no longer a young fighter when it comes to the UFC.
Not only has he been around in the promotion now for the best part of a decade, debuting back in February 2012, but he’s also 38 years old.
Wonderboy didn’t appear to struggle in his recent fights with Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. Still, whenever a fighter gets close to 40, Father Time begins to catch up to them.
It’s also fair to suggest that Thompson may not be as durable as he once was, too. He was badly knocked out by Anthony Pettis in their 2019 clash and was also hurt by Tyron Woodley in both of their clashes.
So if Wonderboy’s speed or reflexes have begun to fade with his advanced age, then there’s every chance that Gilbert Burns could catch him with a haymaker and turn his lights out.
#2 Gilbert Burns’ pressure style may be too much for Wonderboy
Stephen Thompson came close to winning the UFC welterweight title on two occasions, but both times he came up slightly short against Tyron Woodley.
In both fights, Thompson was largely the aggressor, backing Woodley up for most of the time.
But the big moments in both fights went to Woodley, who hurt Wonderboy badly on two occasions, essentially allowing him to retain his title.
Woodley’s success came in moments when he was able to pressure Thompson back, preventing him from unleashing his pinpoint striking game.
That pressuring style is something that Gilbert Burns is much more comfortable with than Woodley was even in his prime.
Durinho likes nothing more than to walk an opponent down and either take them to the ground or club them with his heavy punches.
Burns needs to put pressure on Wonderboy at UFC 264 to prevent the latter from using his striking game to the best of his ability. If the Brazilian is successful in doing so, he can definitely back Thompson up enough to hurt him, therefore winning the fight.