3 ways that Nate Diaz could beat Leon Edwards at UFC 263
This weekend sees UFC 263 take place in Glendale, Arizona, and in one of the show’s biggest fights, Nate Diaz makes his return to take on UFC welterweight contender Leon Edwards.
Nate Diaz has not fought in the UFC since November 2019 and will come into his fight with Leon Edwards as a major underdog, but can he win?
The answer is yes. Edwards is a great fighter in his own right, but Diaz has been proving his doubters wrong for years and could pull off one of his most significant victories to date here.
With this in mind, here are three ways that Nate Diaz could defeat Leon Edwards at UFC 263.
#3 Get inside Leon Edwards’ head, particularly at UFC 263’s weigh-in, and draw him into a brawl
Nate Diaz is undoubtedly one of the best fighters in UFC history when it comes to sucking his opponents into mind games.
Even trash-talker extraordinaire Conor McGregor appeared shaken by Diaz's devil-may-care attitude in the build-up to their two fights, and it could be argued that this played a role in McGregor's loss at UFC 196.
For his fight with Leon Edwards, Diaz should probably try to get into his opponent's head, starting at the weigh-in for UFC 263.
Edwards is generally a more chilled fighter, so to have someone acting hostile towards him prior to the fight may well interfere with his mental preparations.
If Diaz can anger 'Rocky' or cloud his judgment, there's a chance that he'll be able to draw the latter into a brawl when the fight begins.
And that kind of fight – an exchange of punches with little in the way of footwork, pacing and defense – would probably suit Diaz just fine.
After all, Stockton's favorite son has a renowned iron chin, while we don't know all that much about Edwards in that area.
Could Edwards be stoic enough to shrug off Diaz's mind games? Perhaps, but he appeared shaken by Jorge Masvidal's confrontational behavior backstage a couple of years ago.
And if he allows Diaz to get into his head, then it could mean good fortune for the Californian.
#2 Nate Diaz should embrace the takedown and look for submissions
Wrestling has never been Nate Diaz's strongest area inside the octagon.
While he's capable of landing takedowns, they've usually come against weaker grapplers, and a number of his losses have come against fighters who were easily capable of taking him down.
Worryingly for Nate Diaz, Leon Edwards is probably one of those fighters who'll be capable of taking him down with little difficulty. The native of the UK has become one of the UFC welterweight division's most improved wrestlers over the last few years.
However, one area that could be questioned in terms of Edwards' game is his submission defense.
'Rocky' has fought submission experts in the UFC but has never really faced one who favors working from his back like Nate Diaz.
That means that strangely enough, it could be a good idea for Diaz to embrace the idea of being taken down by Edwards in this fight.
If he attempts to defend Edwards' takedowns, then he'll likely blow a lot of energy unnecessarily and will probably find himself dumped to the ground in the end, anyway.
So why not just accept the takedown and look to catch Edwards with something nasty from the bottom?
After all, Diaz is a renowned submission expert from the guard, with six of his UFC wins coming via submission from the bottom.
This gameplan might well surprise Edwards and could allow Diaz to catch him off guard – opening him up for a submission.
#1 Push the pace to wear Leon Edwards out down the stretch
Along with his boxing and submission skills, arguably Nate Diaz's greatest attribute is his incredible cardio.
A renowned triathlete in his home state of California, Diaz's gas tank appears to be limitless, and we've basically never seen him tire out in the UFC, even in lengthy and grueling fights.
Leon Edwards, on the other hand, appears to be in great shape and has gone the distance on numerous occasions.
However, 'Rocky' has only fought for five rounds twice – against somewhat undersized opponents Rafael dos Anjos and Donald Cerrone.
And coming off a bad case of COVID-19, it's anyone's guess quite how good Edwards' cardio will be right now.
Therefore, it'd probably be a good idea for Diaz to attempt to wear Edwards out, leaving him with easy pickings for a submission or TKO in the later rounds.
To do this, Nate Diaz would probably have to pour pressure on Edwards using his boxing from the opening bell. He must also look to use the clinch to wear him down, as he did against Anthony Pettis in his last UFC victory in 2019.
If he can outwork Edwards early on and make him tired, the more chance he's got that 'Rocky' will leave himself susceptible to a finish – as Conor McGregor did in their famed fight at UFC 196.
And while it feels unlikely, if he can establish a lead on the scorecard, there's also a chance that Nate Diaz could have his hand raised via decision.