5 fighters who cannot afford to lose at UFC 302
UFC 302 is set to go down this weekend, and it's going to be a big event. For some fighters, though, the pressure is on.
At UFC 302, a number of fighters will have their backs to the wall when they step into the octagon. Put simply, they probably can't afford to lose.
Sure, many of them are big stars whose spot on the roster won't be under threat if they do suffer a defeat, but they could well slip down the ladder quickly.
Here, then, are five fighters who cannot afford to lose at UFC 302 this weekend.
#5 Grant Dawson - UFC lightweight contender
The last time Grant Dawson stepped into the octagon, he was riding a 12-fight win streak dating back to 2016, with nine of those bouts coming in the UFC.
However, instead of breaking into lightweight title contention as he'd hoped, everything went wrong for 'KGD' in his first headliner. He was stopped by Bobby Green in just 33 seconds.
The loss not only pushed Dawson out of the lightweight rankings, but has also left him with his back to the wall coming into his fight this weekend.
For his comeback fight, 'KGD' will face Joe Solecki, a far less heralded foe than Green and one that, stylistically, he should match well with.
However, Solecki isn't an outright pushover, holding an octagon record of 5-2, and there's no guarantee that Dawson will bounce back from his loss to Green.
If he were to lose here, 'KGD' wouldn't be likely to be cut outright. However, as he isn't the most charismatic fighter, the chances of him receiving a promotional push again would be slim.
With that in mind, Dawson probably can't afford to lose this weekend, particularly if he has designs on making it back into contention - or onto main cards - any time soon.
#4 Jailton Almeida - UFC heavyweight contender
At the start of 2024, Jailton Almeida looked like one of the hottest rising stars in the UFC's heavyweight division. Had he beaten Curtis Blaydes in March, in fact, he'd probably be getting ready to fight Tom Aspinall for the interim heavyweight title right now.
Instead, though, 'Malhadinho' suffered his first octagon defeat against Blaydes, slumping to a second round TKO defeat after eating some heavy shots to the side of the head.
The loss hasn't pushed the Brazilian out of contention entirely, but it definitely dented his stellar reputation.
This weekend, though, will see Almeida face off with Alexander Romanov in his return fight. 'King Kong' is nowhere near the level of Blaydes, but he's still a huge, powerful man with the ability to stop his opponents.
If Almeida loses, the cries from certain fans for him to drop back down to 205 pounds will become pretty loud. In many ways, then, his future at heavyweight might be on the line this weekend.
In that sense, 'Malhadinho' can't afford to lose, particularly if his dream of becoming UFC heavyweight champion still exists.
#3 Kevin Holland - UFC middleweight contender
Seemingly one of Dana White's favorite fighters, Kevin Holland probably has a spot on the UFC's roster for as long as he wants it.
'The Trailblazer' is usually exciting to watch and more importantly for the promotion and its matchmakers, is seemingly willing to face any opponent at any time.
Despite this, Holland cannot afford to fall to defeat in his bout with Michal Oleksiejczuk this weekend.
Not only is 'Hussar' largely unheralded, but Holland has lost his last two fights and is moving back to 185 pounds in an attempt to rebuild himself after those losses.
If he were to lose again, then, any idea of him returning into contention would be dead in the water. Sure, 'The Trailblazer' would be kept around as an action fighter and gatekeeper, but he'd definitely slip from relevance, and that's something he'd clearly love to avoid.
Therefore, put simply, he must beat Oleksiejczuk this weekend.
#2 Dustin Poirier - UFC lightweight contender
UFC 302's headliner will see Dustin Poirier challenge Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title. While it seems crazy to suggest that 'The Diamond' has his back to the wall, that's almost certainly the case.
Poirier is one of the promotion's biggest stars, but there have already been signs that his status may be slipping slightly.
Fans were buzzing over his willingness to fight a rising star like Benoit Saint Denis, for instance. In reality, though, the fact that the UFC matched him with a prospect was a hint that they may believe his future lies in being a gatekeeper.
That's a spot that no top star like Poirier would want to find themselves in. However, if he loses to Makhachev this weekend, then that may well be his role going forward.
If nothing else, if 'The Diamond' loses, it's very likely that he'll never get another title shot before his career ends. In that sense, he can't really afford to suffer a defeat.
#1 Paulo Costa - UFC middleweight contender
Once considered the fastest rising star in the middleweight division, it's probably fair to say that Paulo Costa's career hasn't exactly been on the rails in recent years.
'The Eraser' climbed all the way up to the top, receiving a title shot against then-champion Israel Adesanya in 2020. Since losing that fight via TKO, though - the first official loss of his career - he has struggled.
Not only has the Brazilian only won once since, retiring Luke Rockhold in 2022, but he's also only competed sporadically.
It's true that neither of Costa's losses were bad or embarrassing. Both Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker are top-level 185 pounders, and 'The Eraser' pushed both men to their limit.
However, if Costa loses to former titleholder Sean Strickland this weekend, it'll be hard to take him seriously as a contender going forward. Incredibly, none of the fighters he has beaten remain on the UFC's roster at all.
What would lie in his future if he does lose to 'Tarzan'? In all honesty it's hard to say - and that's why he cannot afford to let it happen.