5 reasons why Aljamain Sterling will beat Henry Cejudo at UFC 288
This weekend sees a huge fight in the bantamweight division, as current champion Aljamain Sterling defends his title against former kingpin Henry Cejudo in the headliner of UFC 288.
Henry Cejudo will be hopeful of regaining the title he relinquished back in 2020, but Aljamain Sterling should probably come into the fight with plenty of confidence.
With this in mind, here are five reasons why Aljamain Sterling will beat Henry Cejudo at UFC 288.
#5. Aljamain Sterling should have a slight size advantage over Henry Cejudo
One area where Aljamain Sterling will almost certainly have an advantage over Henry Cejudo in this weekend is sheer size.
‘Funk Master’ is not the biggest bantamweight on the UFC roster, but he does have an extremely long frame that gives him the edge over many of his opponents. Sterling stands at 5’7” and boasts a 71” reach, attributes that once saw him compared to a bantamweight version of Jon Jones.
Cejudo, in contrast, stands three inches shorter and will be at a big reach disadvantage of around seven inches.
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‘Triple C’, of course, made his name in the octagon by fighting at 125 pounds before moving up in weight in 2020. It’s true that he dealt well with a long-framed opponent in Dominick Cruz, but Sterling’s reach is even bigger than that of ‘The Dominator’, and he’s also in his prime.
Add in the fact that Cejudo might not be able to make his wrestling work so well against a bigger, stronger foe, and Sterling should have a slight edge here.
#4. Henry Cejudo has been out of action for a long time
Any fighter who takes a long time away from action tends to show some ring rust when they return. It’s probably fair to say that Henry Cejudo has been away longer than most.
‘Triple C’ has not fought since his May 2020 win over Dominick Cruz, after which he retired, relinquishing his UFC bantamweight title in the process.
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Cejudo does appear to have been training for a comeback throughout this three-year period and hasn’t suffered any disclosed injuries, but that might not be the point. He’s now 36 years old, and could be near the end of his prime years.
During the same period, Aljamain Sterling has defeated Cory Sandhagen, won the bantamweight title from Petr Yan, and then defended it successfully against Yan in a rematch and TJ Dillashaw.
Essentially, if ‘Triple C’ does come into this fight with any kind of rust to his game, ‘Funk Master’ seems highly likely to take advantage of it. At such a high level, these marginal differences can be huge, and so Sterling should probably be favored to win.
#3. Aljamain Sterling may be a better grappler than Henry Cejudo
Given that he won an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling in 2008, it’s probably fair to suggest that Henry Cejudo is one of the most highly credentialed athletes in UFC history.
Is ‘Triple C’ really a better overall grappler than Aljamain Sterling, though? It’s a question that should be up for debate.
Cejudo should have an advantage in the wrestling department, but Sterling’s statistics when it comes to takedowns aren’t bad at all. He averages 1.98 takedowns per fight, a number comparable to Cejudo’s 2.12 average.
While his takedown defense is nowhere near as good – 41% to Cejudo’s 93% - it’s arguable that when a fight hits the mat, ‘Funk Master’ is more dangerous.
Cejudo has never really been a submission expert, and has never tapped a foe in the octagon. He has only attempted 0.2 submissions on average every 15 minutes.
Sterling, by contrast, has submitted the likes of Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann, and is much more comfortable scrambling and looking for fight-ending holds.
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Cejudo may well take Sterling down this weekend, but he could actually be putting himself in danger if he does – and if ‘Funk Master’ can prove to be the better grappler, then he’ll almost certainly win.
#2. Aljamain Sterling will have the crowd behind him
In a fight as close to call as Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo, it’s always worth looking at the intangibles, and one such intangible this weekend could be the crowd.
UFC 288 is set to go down in Newark’s Prudential Center, right in the heart of New Jersey.
Sterling, of course, hails from New York and trains with the Serra-Longo team on Long Island. This means that the crowd is likely to be heavily in favor of ‘Funk Master’, who will likely be seen as the hometown hero.
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California’s Cejudo, of course, is almost certainly no stranger to competing in front of hostile crowds. He won his Olympic gold medal in Beijing while representing Team USA, and has won in New York before, defeating TJ Dillashaw in Brooklyn.
However, a fighter of his level would probably expect to return from three years away as a conquering hero, and instead, there’s a chance he’ll be booed out of the building this weekend.
That could be hard for him to take, and if he’s thrown off his game at all, this x-factor could sway things in favor of Sterling.
#1. Henry Cejudo’s reputation at bantamweight might be exaggerated
Perhaps the biggest reason to favor Aljamain Sterling against Henry Cejudo this weekend is the fact that, if we’re honest, Cejudo’s reputation at 135 pounds may be exaggerated.
Nobody can really play down the accomplishments of ‘Triple C’. He remains the only man to defeat Demetrious Johnson in the UFC at flyweight, he took out TJ Dillashaw in seconds in what was a highly personal clash, and he’s one of just four simultaneous double champs in UFC history.
However, his history at bantamweight is slightly murkier.
His title win there didn’t come over the reigning champ Dillashaw. Instead, it came over top contender Marlon Moraes following Dillashaw’s stripping.
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At the time, Moraes was definitely a highly rated fighter, but he quickly slipped after his loss to ‘Triple C’. He won just one more fight in the octagon – a controversial decision against Jose Aldo – and washed out of the promotion in 2022 after four straight losses.
Cejudo’s only title defense, meanwhile, came against Dominick Cruz. ‘The Dominator’ is widely seen as an all-time great, but he also hadn’t fought in the best part of four years before his clash with Cejudo, and was arguably past his prime.
Compared to Sterling, who has beaten the likes of Petr Yan, Dillashaw, Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz and Renan Barao, Cejudo’s record at 135 pounds just doesn’t stand up.
‘Triple C’ may well be as good as he claims to be as a bantamweight, but based on the evidence we have seen, it’s hard to pick him to beat ‘Funk Master’ this weekend.