5 reasons why Islam Makhachev could potentially beat Leon Edwards for the welterweight strap
Islam Makhachev is the reigning UFC lightweight champion. He is fresh off a decision win against the promotion's featherweight kingpin, Alexander Volkanovski, in a highly competitive bout at UFC 284. Prior to their clash, the Dagestani grappling phenom endured a difficult weight cut.
As one of the biggest lightweights in the world, the reigning titleholder has never had the easiest time making weight at 155 lbs. Talk of him eventually moving up to welterweight began right before his bout with 'The Great'. This past Saturday, Leon Edwards emerged victorious against Kamaru Usman in a closely-contested affair.
#UFC286
Islam Makhachev has his eyes on Leon Edwards' title π #UFC286 https://t.co/GfemcyTBeN
In the aftermath of the welterweight title bout, Khabib Nurmagomedov's protege declared his intention to face 'Rocky' for the 170 lbs throne later this year in Abu Dhabi. While UFC president Dana White was quick to shut down the proposed matchup, this list goes over five reasons why Islam Makhachev would win.
#5. Islam Makhachev's striking
Despite his reputation as one of the sport's most dominant grapplers, Islam Makhachev is an excellent striker. He has always been technical and measured with a slick counterpunching game that was on full display against Alexander Volkanovski during their clash.
The Australian great is frequently lauded as one of the best strikers in the world, but he encountered a stiff test against Makhachev. The reigning 155 lbs champion frequently punished his foe's tendency to shift into combinations, stunning and dropping him to a knee on several occasions.
π½Islam Makhachev surprised a lot of people of how much his striking improved. Proud of this man. P4P & LW π
Heβll only get better and better going forward after this fight. π―ππ½ https://t.co/UkJw37E8FL
Furthermore, he feints his jab to draw out his opponent's counters. Due to Leon Edwards' tendency to force the perfect exchange, he is especially vulnerable to someone who feints as much as Islam Makhachev. 'Rocky' either overreacts to feints and opens himself up to counters or he becomes gun-shy.
If he's not certain that he'll land a blow in a perfect exchange, he struggles and lowers his output. Additionally, Makhachev is a southpaw, so he will nullify the natural advantage Edwards has against orthodox fighters as a southpaw himself.
#4. Islam Makhachev wouldn't be diminished by a weight cut
Alexander Volkanovski is a serviceable puncher in terms of punching power. However, the featherweight titleholder isn't a knockout artist. Yet during his bout with Islam Makhachev, he rocked and even dropped the American Kickboxing Academy standout. It was a strange sight.
But it was clear that Dagestan's finest was battling the ill effects of a difficult weight cut. He didn't have his usual recovery time between the weigh-ins and fight night, leaving him more drained than usual. His ability to take shots as well as his cardio and strength were negatively impacted.
This won't be the case at welterweight. The Dagestani's weight cut will be minimal. If he is even stronger, tougher and has better cardio at 170 lbs, he might shock Leon Edwards in a fashion similar to how Alexander Volkanovski shocked him.
#3. The wrestling threat
Islam Makhachev is a different breed of wrestler compared to the likes of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. While Leon Edwards conceded takedowns against 'The Nigerian Nightmare' in all three of their bouts, he was able to use the fence to scale his way back to a standing position.
2 minutes and a bit of current UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev taking down,throwing and tripping the opposition.
@MAKHACHEVMMA has the highest Takedown Accuracy in UFC Lightweight history at 66.7%. https://t.co/a9Sc6sPM8p
This is much harder to do against fighters who use the Dagestani style of wrestling. First, Makhachev prefers to secure takedowns against the fence because even if his opponents work their way back to a standing position, he still has them pinned against the fence in a strong position.
From that position, he can drag them back down to the mat. This constant cycle of being taken down and pinned against the fence is tiring for most fighters to endure. Thus, Leon Edwards' main method of defending takedowns will work in Islam Makhachev's favor.
#2. Islam Makhachev's ground game
One of the biggest detriments to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington's success inside the octagon is their complete lack of offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Despite holding a BJJ black belt, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' uses wrestling almost exclusively in all of his grappling sequences.
Islam Makhachev making it look easy with the first round kimura submission of Dan Hooker #UFC267
https://t.co/hjM8KiyDaY
Even when he has his opponent's back, he never hunts for submissions and doesn't even try to pass his foe's guard. The absence of strong mat-based grapplers in the welterweight division has allowed Leon Edwards to develop a very risky style of defensive wrestling.
The Englishman constantly gets on all fours to stand up. Doing so, however, exposes his back. If he does this against Islam Makhachev, he'll expose himself to rear-naked chokes. Furthermore, his habit of posting on one arm exposes him to the dreaded Dagestani handcuff.
#1. The clinch
Leon Edwards showed some new wrinkles in his clinch game at UFC 286. He is well-known for landing elbows in the clinch by stepping across his opponents, which forces them to turn inwards towards himβand into the path of a slicing elbow. Due to his success in doing so, his opponents are now well-prepared.
At UFC 286, Kamaru Usman was wary of walking into the path of one of the Englishman's elbows. Furthermore, when he ran the risk of doing so, he ducked under a potential elbow. Unfortunately, he ducked into the path of several knees. If Edwards' newfound love for knees in the clinch is permanent, it may be risky.
#UFC280A few of many islam makhachevβs takedowns/ judo slams π₯ #UFC280 https://t.co/NZKvptCBFA
Islam Makhachev often surprises opponents with trips and Judo throws from the clinch after they throw knees. He'll throw his own knees to convince his foes to return fire with knees of their own. However, the moment one of his opponent's feet is airborne, he trips them for an easy takedown.
Edwards will have to be cautious of any clinch sequence against the Dagestani grappler lest he concede dangerous Judo-based takedowns that will automatically bypass his guard.