UFC 281: 5 reasons why Israel Adesanya will defeat Alex Pereira in their middleweight title fight
This weekend sees Israel Adesanya attempt to defend his middleweight title against his old kickboxing rival Alex Pereira in the headliner of UFC 281. ‘The Last Stylebender’ will be desperate for a win.
Israel Adesanya famously suffered two losses to Alex Pereira in the kickboxing ring prior to beginning his UFC career, so can he gain some semblance of revenge over ‘Poatan’ this weekend?
Who do you think will get the job done? Adesanya and Pereira will put their skills to the test and go 𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙙-𝙩𝙤-𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙙 on Saturday 💢
👇 Who do you think will get the job done?
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Despite Pereira’s lack of octagon experience, there’s definitely the chance that he could prove to be Adesanya’s trickiest test to date – but it’s a test that ‘The Last Stylebender’ will be hopeful of passing.
Here are five reasons why Israel Adesanya will beat Alex Pereira at UFC 281.
#5. Israel Adesanya has far more UFC experience than Alex Pereira
One area where Israel Adesanya will have a big advantage over Alex Pereira in coming into their fight this weekend is UFC experience.
Adesanya has been in the UFC since February 2018, and during those four-and-a-half years, he’s defeated 12 opponents at 185lbs while suffering just one loss, a decision defeat to then-light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz in 2021.
Alex Pereira, on the other hand, has not only had just three bouts in the UFC, but he’s only fought in professional MMA on seven occasions, period. Sure, he’s impressed in those fights, but to be giving up such a massive amount of experience to Adesanya should be worrying for him.
More to the point, while Pereira headlined numerous shows in his kickboxing career, he’s never been in the main event of a huge pay-per-view like UFC 281 promises to be.
‘The Last Stylebender’, on the other hand, has headlined or co-headlined plenty of huge UFC shows since his debut. He’s also proven immune to the pressure that comes with that. In fact, he’s often demonstrated that he’s a consummate showman, famously lifting his entrance for his bout with Jared Cannonier from WWE legend The Undertaker.
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Essentially, when the bright lights are on, we know that Adesanya can perform at his best. The same, however, cannot be said for ‘Poatan’.
#4. Israel Adesanya wasn’t doing as badly in his kickboxing matches with Alex Pereira as some suggest
As everyone knows by now, Israel Adesanya suffered two losses to Alex Pereira during his kickboxing career, losing a decision to the Brazilian in 2016 and then suffering a knockout at his hands in 2017 in what turned out to be his last professional kickboxing bout.
In the buildup to their fight at UFC 281, it’s not been surprising to see those two losses used as both a way to build up expectations for Pereira, who lacks UFC experience but also as a stick of sorts to beat ‘The Last Stylebender’ with.
However, while the clip of Adesanya being knocked out cold by Pereira’s scary left hook is definitely a stunning one, the entirety of that fight actually tells somewhat of a different story.
In fact, Adesanya wasn’t doing badly against ‘Poatan’ at all and was arguably winning the bout until being caught by the left hook early in the third round. His timing, footwork and combinations looked on, and he was catching the Brazilian, until, of course, he got caught himself.
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Sure, it’s true that at the time he knocked out Adesanya, Pereira wasn’t quite as established in the kickboxing world as he’d eventually become. That fight took place in March 2017 and ‘Poatan’ didn’t win his first title in GLORY until the end of that year, while it’d be another two years before he’d become a two-division champion.
However, the fact is that Pereira didn’t whitewash Adesanya in the kickboxing ring as some have claimed, meaning he may not hold an advantage on the feet at all in their upcoming fight.
#3. Israel Adesanya just needs to avoid Alex Pereira’s left hand in order to win
One thing in this fight is for certain and that’s the fact that if he wants to win, Israel Adesanya simply cannot afford to eat Alex Pereira’s big left hook. Put simply, while he’s only used it once in the UFC, it’s one of MMA’s true great killshots.
‘Poatan’ doesn’t even appear to throw his left hook like a haymaker, as Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson once threw their killer right hands. Instead, he sets it up using the rest of his striking arsenal and somehow puts so much power into it that it switches the lights off anyone it connects with.
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During Pereira’s kickboxing career, he used the left hook to finish five opponents, including Adesanya, and hurt many more with the shot, too.
However, while Pereira’s left hook is deadly, if Adesanya can avoid it landing on him, then he may well have enough to be able to outstrike him overall. ‘The Last Stylebender’ hasn’t exactly eaten many shots during his octagon career, with only Kelvin Gastelum really having him hurt at any point.
However, he has shown that he can take clean strikes without being knocked out. So, if he can avoid that left hook, then he might be able to take anything else Pereira can bring – allowing him to win the fight.
#2. Israel Adesanya can use the octagon to his favor
While the experience differential between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira has already been mentioned, it’s also worth noting that Adesanya will probably be the more comfortable man in the octagon, and that could play into his hands.
While kickboxing and MMA are obviously close cousins, one of the biggest differences between them is that kickboxing takes place in a ring. MMA, for the most part, takes place in a cage, or in the case of the UFC, the octagon.
What does this mean for this fight? Well, where a fighter like Alex Pereira was often able to cut the ring off in pursuit of an opponent, often forcing them into a corner, it’s far trickier to do this in the larger octagon.
A fighter like Adesanya, on the other hand, who lives and dies from his ability to control distance, remain elusive and land strikes from the outside, the octagon is perfect.
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Its shape should mean that Pereira can’t really close him down to land close-quarter strikes, assuming ‘The Last Stylebender’ doesn’t decide to stand and trade. Adesanya, meanwhile, may be able to keep his distance, pop ‘Poatan’ with a shot, and then get out of the way before something nasty comes in return.
We’ve seen evidence of this before, when Mirko Cro Cop joined the UFC after a career in the PRIDE ring, for instance, and simply couldn’t translate his striking game at all. Alistair Overeem also had to adapt his striking game heavily after making a return to MMA following his foray into K-1’s ring.
Essentially, then, Pereira can win this bout with one kill-shot, but to land that shot is going to take a different approach than he’s usually used to – meaning that Adesanya should have the advantage.
#1. Israel Adesanya will be more driven to win than ever before
In huge fights like this weekend’s UFC middleweight title bout between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira, which fighter comes out on top could come down to a number of X factors. In this bout, the major one of those factors could be just how driven ‘The Last Stylebender’ is to find victory.
After all, questions have been asked about Adesanya’s motivation in his last couple of fights, which have seen him defeat overmatched foes like Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori, often seemingly without him unleashing the full extent of his arsenal.
There shouldn’t be any question of motivation for him in this clash. After all, not only is Pereira the man who handed him two defeats in the kickboxing ring, he’s also the only man to ever knock ‘The Last Stylebender’ out, something that he’ll be desperate to put right.
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At the end of the day, Adesanya is the type of fighter who, when he sets his mind on doing something, tends to achieve it. Nobody could’ve predicted that he’d dispatch of two of his toughest opponents in Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa in the way that he did. When he found himself in trouble against Kelvin Gastelum, he dug deeper than ever before to find a way to win.
‘Poatan’ will definitely come into this bout with plenty of motivation, but it’s likely that for once, Adesanya is the man with more to prove – and that X factor could be the key to him pulling off what would be a huge victory.