5 reasons why Magomed Ankalaev will beat Jan Błachowicz at UFC 282

At UFC 282, the surging Magomed Ankalaev will face former light heavyweight champion Jan Błachowicz for the divisional strap. Initially, the pay-per-view was to be headlined by a rematch between Glover Teixeira and Jiří Procházka. Unfortunately, a serious shoulder injury left the Czech phenom unable to compete.

Worse still, he's in no condition to fight at all in the near future. With no other choice, he relinquished the title. Unwilling to accept a title bout with Ankalaev due to the little preparation time he'd have, Glover Teixeira also withdrew from the event.

Now, two other fighters will compete for the vacant 205-pound title, and come December 10, the Dagestani will be favored to win. This list explores the reasons why.

#5. Magomed Ankalaev's clinch game

Jan Błachowicz is a serviceable defensive wrestler. His size affords him a degree of brute strength that serves him well in stuffing his opponent's takedowns. Furthermore, he manages the distance well enough that his foes aren't always within range to succeed with their takedown attempts.

Unfortunately, when it comes to clinch-grappling, he's not the greatest technician. The Polish power-puncher is fairly easy to hold against the fence. This is due to his lack of urgency in framing to create separation in the clinch. Instead, he secures underhooks to use his leverage to control his foe's posture.

He specifically uses underhooks to keep his opponents upright to stop them from dropping down for double-legs and single-legs. However, doing so against Magomed Ankalaev is dangerous. Like his Dagestani compatriots Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, he is a clinch specialist.

With a background in Greco-Roman wrestling, the surging 205lber is often aware of hip positioning. While his Polish foe will focus on using underhooks to stuff takedown shots, Magomed Ankalaev will use overhooks to set up throws and trips.

Since Błachowicz will be focused on widening his base, it’ll be easier for Ankalaev to slide his foot in between his legs. This will enable him to quickly hook his foot inside or outside the Pole's legs for trips on a consistent basis.

#4. Magomed Ankalaev's ground game

Jan Błachowicz is a dangerous offensive grappler on the mat. He has a knack for creating the right conditions for submissions. If those conditions aren't ideal, he's capable of securing chokes from unorthodox positions. However, this is only the case when he's in a dominant position on the ground.

The former UFC light heavyweight champion is not as good a defensive grappler. When forced to fight from a vulnerable position on the mat, he can be surprisingly inept. He does enough to control his opponent's posture by hooking his legs behind their waist, but isn't the best when it comes to escaping.

He doesn't create space very effectively. Alternatively, Magomed Ankalaev is an experienced sambo fighter. On the mat, he is a devastating force. Curiously, he's never captured a single submission throughout his entire career. Instead, the Dagestani grappler is more akin to Cain Velasquez.

Magomed Ankalaev Knocks Out Anthony Smith #UFC277 https://t.co/pJysjL9Rqn

He is more concerned with creating openings for ground-and-pound. When he's on top, he's a terrifying force due to the amount of power he can generate with his strikes. Magomed Ankalaev is unique in that he doesn't posture up to generate power behind his blows.

He often keeps his chest close to his opponent to prevent them from taking advantage of any space to escape. However, he manages to generate tremendous power by turning his torso into every blow. This will be especially effective against Błachowicz.

The Polish power-puncher will be in a difficult predicament. Not being able to create space against an opponent who affords none and is a powerful ground-and-pound practitioner is extremely risky. This is especially true since Ankalaev will likely be the one securing the takedowns.

#3. Magomed Ankalaev's striking matches up well with Jan Błachowicz's

Jan Błachowicz is a tricky striker. Former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya discovered as much after losing to the Polish power-puncher at UFC 259. However, certain stylistic nuances render him a more favorable matchup for Magomed Ankalaev.

Poland's first-ever male UFC champion is a counter-striker. He is a patient and opportunistic puncher who keeps an eye out for his foe's positioning. The moment he notices that his opponent has poor footing or is attempting to reset after a missed punch or kick, he pounces.

Błachowicz possesses a dangerous blitz, especially since it's often preceded by a jab used to measure the distance between him and his foe. This means he rarely misses his counter-blitzes. Unfortunately, Ankalaev is shockingly fast. As a counterpuncher himself, the Dagestani phenom is an extremely elusive light heavyweight.

Magomed Ankalaev bringing that ferocity this Saturday at #UFCVegas20! 🔥 https://t.co/OKXnyRkLx4

He applies steady pressure against his opponents, drawing out their punches as they mistake his forward movement for him walking into their shots. However, once his opponents commit to what they assume is a counterpunch, they are instead countered by Ankalaev.

The Dagestani immediately repositions his feet within seconds of marching his foes down. The punches his opponents throw find nothing but air as they then find themselves completely out of position and exposed to Ankalaev's counters. The blistering speed of his footwork is unmatched at light heavyweight.

Thus, he's likely to dupe Błachowicz into throwing counterpunches that will instead get countered by him. This is especially likely due to the difference in speed between them. Ankalaev is frighteningly fast, while the Polish power-puncher is not known for his speed.

#2. Youth is on his side

Next year, Jan Błachowicz will be 40 years old. At some point, age catches up to everyone. Meanwhile, Magomed Ankalaev will turn 31 years old in 2023. His opponent is nearly a decade older than he is. The Polish power-puncher himself has been candid about his age in the context of competing at the elite level.

This will have a serious impact on his performance due to several factors. His cardio, which is serviceable, will be tested against Ankalaev. Given how fast the Dagestani phenom is when it comes to his footwork and striking, he's going to force his opponent to miss quite a few of his counter shots.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Light heavyweight

Jan Blachowicz
Age: 39
Height: 6'2
Reach: 78"

Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 30
Height: 6'3
Reach: 75"

Match Link: mma-break.com/match/jan-blac… https://t.co/WI5xbO3PkI

Missing a punch is far more exhausting than landing one. This is further magnified by the fact that Błachowicz often counters his opponents with a left hook and right cross. Both are power punches that require a serious commitment of one's bodyweight.

Unfortunately, missing a high percentage of those punches will cause a nearly 40-year-old Jan Błachowicz to tire himself out. His age is such that even at 38 years old, he was exhausted after defeating Israel Adesanya despite controlling him on the mat with wrestling.

This does not bode well for him against a much younger and much faster opponent who will consistently create conditions to tire him out. This is true for both Ankalaev's grappling and striking.

#1. Magomed Ankalaev is a low-volume striker

While Jan Błachowicz's striking appears to be the right kind of style for Magomed Ankalaev to prey upon with his own counters, there is another facet. The Dagestani will not only be able to counter or make his foe pay for the specifics of his counterpunching style, but he can neutralize him entirely.

Most fighters use clinch grappling to neutralize an opponent's striking. Holly Holm, for example, consistently smothers her opponent's punches by tying them up in the clinch, where there's no space to throw punches with significant leverage. Against Jan Błachowicz, however, Magomed Ankalaev can do the same.

#UFC 🚨| Les très bons blocages de de Magomed Ankalaev face aux kicks d’Anthony Smith 👍
https://t.co/WZ4FGlAOyz

Only, instead of clinching, he can use his striking. Magomed Ankalaev is a low-volume striker, meaning he does not throw an avalanche of punches and kicks. He is extraordinarily patient and doesn't respond recklessly even when his foes pressure him.

Since Jan Błachowicz mainly operates as a counterstriker, he needs a steady flow of offense from his opponents in order to counter them. If his opponents don't throw enough strikes, he's unable to make reads or analyze them to identify patterns from such little information.

With nothing to inform his shots, his counter-striking will be neutralized. This is similar to Israel Adesanya's predicament against Yoel Romero, or Anderson Silva's past issues with opponents who didn't play into his game. Counterstrikers are highly dependent on their opponent's actions.

With nothing to inform his counters, the foundation of Błachowicz's striking will be largely neutralized.