5 reasons why Paulo Costa could beat Khamzat Chimaev if they face off in the future
It looks like Khamzat Chimaev’s future now lies not as a welterweight, but as a middleweight after his win over Kevin Holland at UFC 279,.
If Khamzat Chimaev is to move to 185lbs permanently, one potential opponent for him could be former title challenger Paulo Costa. Would ‘The Eraser’ really stand a chance of winning?
Despite Chimaev’s obvious talents and previous accomplishments in the octagon, the answer is almost certainly yes. Whether or not we see this bout in the future remains to be seen even if it appears that Costa wants it. If it does take place, nobody should write the Brazilian off.
Here are five reasons why Paulo Costa could defeat Khamzat Chimaev if they fight in the near future.
#5. Khamzat Chimaev would be giving up a lot of size to Paulo Costa
While it makes sense for Khamzat Chimaev to move up to 185lbs permanently if he can no longer make the 170lbs welterweight limit safely, whether ‘Borz’ is truly big enough to succeed at middleweight is a question mark.
Sure, current middleweight champ Israel Adesanya isn’t a hulking specimen at 185lbs, but his sniping striking style doesn’t require him to be. Chimaev’s bullying pressure game, on the other hand, seems to rely largely on him having a physical advantage over his foes.
It’s true that ‘Borz’ wouldn’t necessarily be the smallest middleweight on the roster, as he stands at 6’2” and has a pretty sizeable frame. Against an opponent like Paulo Costa though, it’s hard to imagine him not giving up plenty of size.
'The Eraser' would be giving up two inches of height to the Chechnyan, but he’d make up for that with his insane muscle mass. Put simply, Costa is a huge middleweight who has struggled to make the 185lbs limit in his own right before.
I got muscles so I become this scary man https://t.co/OeG6v61XkT
Even if Chimaev were to pack muscle on prior to the fight, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to match up to Costa’s strength and size – giving the Brazilian a potential advantage in this prospective bout.
#4. Khamzat Chimaev’s cardio is still questionable, and Paulo Costa pushes the pace
Despite a flawless 12-0 MMA record with six wins coming inside the UFC, there’s one question that still hangs over Khamzat Chimaev. It has to do with his gas tank.
Chimaev was able to whitewash five of his foes in the UFC, but in his bout with Gilbert Burns, ‘Durinho’ proved to be tough enough to withstand the early onslaught from the Chechnyan.
In the end, Chimaev clearly tired out during the three-round clash, and although he eventually came out on top via unanimous decision, he absorbed a total of 119 strikes in the process – more than in the rest of his bouts in the octagon combined.
"Now I'm bloody, I'm tired, I feel a little pain. I love this!"
@KChimaev on getting through 15 minutes with Gilbert Burns! 🐺
#UFC273 https://t.co/ew3RtYwLaa
With that in mind, it’s probably fair to ask what would happen if Chimaev were to face an opponent as willing as he is to push for a torrid pace. Paulo Costa could be such an opponent.
‘The Eraser’ isn’t a stranger to looking exhausted in the octagon in his own right. However, in his wild fights with Yoel Romero, Marvin Vettori and Luke Rockhold he was able to swing as many shots during the later rounds as he was in the early ones.
If the Brazilian looked to push the pace in a clash with Chimaev, could ‘Borz’ keep up without faltering? It’s a fair question to ask given how badly he gassed out against Burns. If he were to get that tired against Costa, it’s safe to say that he’d be in trouble.
#3. Paulo Costa’s grappling game is largely underrated
While Khamzat Chimaev’s grappling game has thus far looked brilliant in his brief UFC career, it’s safe to say that he hasn’t faced the toughest opposition in that area just yet.
Sure, Kevin Holland and Li Jingliang are known for their dangerous ground games, but neither man has the best defensive wrestling. While Gilbert Burns has world class jiu-jitsu skills, his bout with Chimaev barely hit the ground.
Could Paulo Costa give ‘Borz’ some problems in the grappling department, then? Given that he has made his name in the UFC as a striker, many fans will probably be inclined to lean towards "no."
However, ‘The Eraser’ is actually a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his own right. Prior to his arrival in the UFC, he was known primarily for his grappling, particularly his takedowns and top control.
Henry Cejudo: Paulo Costa has beaten world-class wrestlers, is a tough matchup for Khamzat Chimaev mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2022/09/ufc-op…
Could Chimaev take him down? It’s a possibility. Given that he holds a takedown defense rate of 79% and has rarely been planted on his back, it’s equally likely that Costa could stuff any shots.
If he could put the Chechen fighter on his back, meanwhile, who knows what would happen? Overall, Costa cannot be written off as a one-dimensional striker in this prospective match-up, and his underrated ground game could be key to his success.
#2. Paulo Costa’s chin is phenomenal
Despite winning the majority of his bouts via submission, there’s definitely some evidence that Khamzat Chimaev is a very powerful striker. He needed just one big right hand to turn out the lights on Gerald Meerschaert, for instance, and he also dropped Gilbert Burns more than once.
However, in a possible fight with Paulo Costa, would the punching power of ‘Borz’ actually translate well? It’s highly debatable.
‘The Eraser’ has an absolutely phenomenal chin that has stood up to some of the most powerful hitters in the middleweight division. His only knockout loss came at the hands of current middleweight champ Israel Adesanya. Even then, Costa managed to walk through a clean kick to his head and keep fighting.
Most notably, Costa took a series of absolutely huge shots from Yoel Romero – one of the heaviest hitters in middleweight history – in their 2019 clash. Costa remained standing throughout the majority of the bout, even laughing the blows off at one point.
Paulo Costa walking down and saluting Yoel Romero was about as bad ass as it gets 🥶 https://t.co/46BokyUeSn
Overall, the Brazilian has absorbed a total of 545 strikes during his time with the UFC, but only Romero and Adesanya have ever knocked him down. Based on this evidence, the chances of Chimaev being able to turn out his lights would be very slim.
#1. Paulo Costa would be the hardest-hitting opponent Khamzat Chimaev has ever faced
Given that he has absorbed a total of 119 strikes against the heavy-handed Gilbert Burns, it’d probably be unfair to question Khamzat Chimaev’s chin and his ability to weather punishment.
However, it wouldn’t be a stretch to suggest that he’s never faced an opponent who hits quite as hard as Paulo Costa.
A striker who is nearly always on the attack, ‘The Eraser’ has a bullying style on the feet that has been compared to heavyweight legend Alistair Overeem. Like the Dutchman, Costa loves to walk his opponents down and then deliver crushing combinations as they back up towards the fence.
‘The Eraser’ used this style to stop the likes of Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. He even defeated Yoel Romero in the same way, giving the Cuban a taste of his own medicine with a bullying performance.
OHHHHH MYYYY!!!
COSTA FINISHES HALL OFF after a CRAZY back and forth exchange! Wow!!!
#UFC226 https://t.co/Xnn8A3F6i3
So could Khamzat Chimaev’s chin stand up to such punishment? Given that he’s never faced as a hard a hitter before, it’s hard to say. Essentially, there’s every chance that ‘Borz’ could end up overwhelmed by the power of Costa – giving the Brazilian a huge chance of winning this bout.