5 reasons why Petr Yan is in a must-win position against Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan isn't in the UFC to do anything but win titles. The former bantamweight champion is still regarded by some fans as the greatest 135'er in the world. They explained away his recent rough patch as a product of simple misfortune. But losing to Sean O'Malley, an opponent he was tipped to dominate, isn't misfortune.
It's far too early to declare 'No Mercy's recent run as the start of a decline, but it is concerning that he's lost three of his last two fights. That's the current run of form that the likes of Michael Chandler and Conor McGregor are on, both of whom have become targets for online mockery due to their recent performances.
UFC Fight Night 221 is scheduled to be headlined by Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili on March 11. The former bantamweight titleholder is in a must-win position against the surging Georgian, and this list details five reasons why that's the case.
#5. Petr Yan will be on a three-fight losing streak if he loses to Merab Dvalishvili
Three years ago, the possibility of Petr Yan being on a three-fight losing streak was unthinkable. He was the promotion's newly crowned bantamweight champion after securing a fifth-round TKO win over all-time great José Aldo. His subsequent bout, which was his first and only title defense, came against Aljamain Sterling.
At UFC 259, the no-nonsense Russian was dominant. At the time, he looked well on his way to recording his first successful title defense. Unfortunately, 'No Mercy' made the perplexing decision to land a knee on a grounded foe when 'Funk Master' was on the mat. This led to the beginning of a rough patch.
Petr Yan, who once had a 7 fight win streak in the UFC including finishes over Urijah Faber and Jose Aldo, is 1-3 in his last 4. Crazy #UFC280 https://t.co/l5VcFGJJsG
He lost the bout via disqualification before rebounding with a win against Cory Sandhagen, during which he captured interim gold. Unfortunately, he lost his next two bouts, with the first being a rematch against Aljamain Sterling and the second being a loss against Sean O'Malley.
The fact that 'Sugar' was unsuccessful against top-ten bantamweights before locking horns with 'No Mercy' doesn't bode well for the Russian. He has now lost three of his last four bouts. A loss against Merab Dvalishvili would mean four losses in his last five fights, which would kick him right out of the top five.
#4. It would leave Petr Yan directionless
For most of his recent UFC career, Petr Yan was either building towards a win streak that would earn him an eventual crack at the title or close enough to the title that he was always a win or two away from challenging for it. He'll be in a different position if he loses to Merab Dvalishvili this March.
If I was Petr Yan I'd box. He has reached the epitome of what any individual can do in MMA by being a UFC Champion. He is genuinely one of the best fighters on the planet. Being 1-3 in the last 4 looks 'shit' but he's amazing man, plus he's a sadistic bastard, I love to see it 😂 https://t.co/GzgW04Hk9M
As such, the former bantamweight champion would be out of the top five and in need of several wins to work his way back into the title scene. He'll have suffered losses to the reigning champion and two top contenders. This would leave him without a clear direction moving forward.
He won't be anywhere near a title fight if he's on a three-fight losing streak. Furthermore, it would be difficult for him to embark on a justifiable win streak if the three fighters—Aljamain Sterling, Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili—hovering in the title scene, all beat him again. He'll have no other goal in the division.
#3. The more Petr Yan loses, the more other fighters and teams will know how to beat him
Petr Yan is yet to be finished in the UFC. No one has come close to knocking him out or submitting him. He hasn't been the victim of a loss that can be classified as a flash knockout or a sudden submission due to carelessness. Instead, all of his recent losses have been decision losses.
UFC bantamweight champ @funkmasterMMA preparing his protege @MerabDvalishvil for his upcoming bout against Petr Yan.
See the videos below. 1/3
#UFC #MMA https://t.co/VQsqNouptx
This means there's ample footage of 'No Mercy' in compromising situations inside the octagon. Every foe who has beaten him has exploited his natural vulnerabilities like his low striking output, poor low kicking defense and his tendency to expose his back during defensive wrestling sequences.
The more times these issues are exposed in his bouts, the more information he's feeding to potential adversaries. Thus, another loss, this time to Merab Dvalishvili, could reveal another vulnerability that the Russian has. The existence of a tried and true gameplan to defeat Petr Yan can only be detrimental to him.
#2. Petr Yan is too small to transition to featherweight
Often-times, fighters who encounter struggles when it comes to reestablishing themselves in an existing division, make the decision to move to a different weight class. Cody Garbrandt tried to do this by debuting at flyweight. Unfortunately, the ill effects of an extreme weight cut left his already vulnerable chin compromised.
As a result, 'No Love' suffered a knockout loss against Kai Kara-France. Thus, Petr Yan might be tempted to try the opposite and move up in weight instead. As opposed to a flyweight debut, he might consider debuting in the UFC featherweight division, especially given his past success against José Aldo.
Who do you’s think Petr Yan could beat in the top ten at Featherweight https://t.co/iww6WvVCq1
But a stint at 145 lbs may not be the answer. The fighters there are much bigger than Yan, which would make him extremely easy to bully. This is especially concerning considering Yan's low volume. He doesn't offer enough threats to stop his foes from simply marching forward until the later rounds.
The likes of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, who thrive against opponents who can't match their activity levels, would completely overwhelm him.
#1. Petr Yan is too big for a stint at flyweight
If Petr Yan moves to flyweight, he would be one of the largest 125'ers on the roster. Unfortunately, he might be too big. Weight cuts, if too extreme, come with adverse effects. Among the drawbacks are diminished cardiovascular abilities and a compromised chin.
Petr Yan has accused Cody Garbrandt of “running away” to the flyweight division 👀 https://t.co/GI2HZVR7Uu
'No Mercy' would be in a situation where both are distinct possibilities. If he cuts down to 125 lbs, he could be undergoing a significant weight cut. The effects of such were evident with Islam Makhachev prior to UFC 284 when he was in tears at the weigh-ins.
Similar effects were seen during Charles Oliveira's failed run as a featherweight. If Petr Yan is too diminished to fight to the best of his abilities as a 125'er, then he'll only rack up losses against foes eager to defeat a compromised version of him without a properly rehydrated brain to absorb their blows.