5 reasons why Rafael Fiziev will beat Justin Gaethje at UFC 286

Rafael Fiziev has finally secured the matchup he's been chasing for some time now. At UFC 286, he will face former UFC interim lightweight champion and two-time title challenger Justin Gaethje in the co-main event of the evening. A win could catapult him right into title contention.

With Beneil Dariush slated to face former divisional titleholder Charles Oliveira in a title eliminator, the next in line could be 'Ataman' if he beats 'The Highlight'. While the challenge that Gaethje poses is a difficult one, Fiziev seems primed to rise to the occasion and emerge victorious this Saturday.

He is a young striker with Muay Thai experience and the right blend of athletic attributes to trouble the former interim champion. While Gaethje is a heavy-handed puncher who has refined his approach, he is an older, slower fighter who is still defensively irresponsible.

#5. Rafael Fiziev's body kicks will pay dividends against Justin Gaethje

While Rafael Fiziev is a highly skilled puncher with slicing combinations, he is also a tremendous kicker with a subtle sprinkle of variety. This is part of what renders his kicks so dangerous. The variety that 'Ataman' uses isn't obvious, so his opponents fail to recognize when the kicks come at them.

Rafael Fiziev is dancing with Gaethje this weekend. If you've not followed him up until this point, his step-up and switch kicks are ballistic https://t.co/D754wks8ym

First, he incorporates stance-switching to change the alignment of his kicks. Furthermore, he also uses level changes whenever he's kicking or he might look in one direction before kicking in another to disrupt his opponent's rhythm. Lastly, he often throws kicks after throwing punch combinations.

Due to Justin Gaethje's over-reliance with the high guard, his midsection is always exposed to body blows. Fiziev's punching combinations will work well to draw out his foe's high guard and leave his midsection defenseless against a brutal storm of kicks.

#4. Rafael Fiziev's boxing is a good counter to Justin Gaethje's style

Justin Gaethje has become a more calculated striker under Trevor Wittman's guidance. Unfortunately, he still suffers from certain tendencies that he can't seem to shake off. Against Charles Oliveira, he overextended with a punch to such an extent that he fell due to the momentum of his punch after missing.

RAFAEL FIZIEV JUST PUT RDA OUT IN ROUND FIVE #UFCVegas58 https://t.co/hW8hwiCsdT

This approach is one that Rafael Fiziev is well-equipped to punish. Unlike most high-level kickboxers, 'Ataman' isn't just leaning his upper body out of range for defensive purposes. He also brings his upper body back into range right after evading his foe's punches and kicks.

He leans away to force his opponents into overextending on punches before leaning forward with tremendous momentum to land brutal counterpunches on foes who aren't in position to absorb his blows. Due to Gaethje's tendency to overextend, he'll be exceptionally vulnerable to Fiziev's counters.

#3. The difference in speed

Justin Gaethje is well known for his heavy hands. He is a powerful puncher who is more than capable of hurting anyone in his division. Unfortunately, he doesn't possess the speed that could make him even deadlier. Oftentimes, punches that fighters don't see coming are the ones that result in knockouts.

ICYMI: Rafael Fiziev STOPS Brad Riddell with a Wheel Kick! 😳

#UFCFightNight
https://t.co/wuyO2fL8gi

This is part of what led to Rafael Fiziev's knockout wins over the likes of Brad Riddell and Rafael dos Anjos. Against 'The Highlight', he'll enjoy a pronounced speed advantage due to his fast-twitch muscle fibers. He's very quick and exceptionally explosive.

Even if he doesn't flatline Gaethje with a punch the American doesn't see coming, he just has to be able to consistently land punches while making 'The Highlight' miss his own strikes to stand a higher chance of winning rounds.

#2. Rafael Fiziev's cardio

Cardio wins fights. Justin Gaethje has serviceable cardio but due to the amount of energy he expends whenever he throws strikes, 'The Highlight' is prone to tiring during his bouts. This was evident in his latest UFC win against three-time Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler.

His cardio is at its best whenever he is in a position to dictate the pace of his bouts. This was the case during the former interim champion's matchup with Tony Ferguson at UFC 249. He defeated 'El Cucuy' via fifth-round TKO in one of his finest-ever performances.

Rafael Fiziev passed the test for me 💪🏻

✅Takedown defence on point despite one scored in round 4

✅ Power and Cardio still there in the later rounds

✅ Defeated a former champion who’s definitely not done yet

He beats Charles Oliveira imo 🤷🏼‍♂️

#UFCVegas58 #MMATwitter https://t.co/5I6nTymOMT

But any time he is forced to deal with ceaseless pressure, he wilts. At UFC 254, Khabib Nurmagomedov caused him to gas out simply by forcing him to spend the entirety of the first round moving backwards. Rafael Fiziev applies constant pressure against his foes.

If Gaethje is forced to constantly move backwards against an endless stream of offense, he'll gas out, especially given Fiziev's own stellar cardio.

#1. Rafael Fiziev's output

Rafael Fiziev is known for throwing combinations as he moves forward. He rarely pot-shots and often overwhelms his opponents with high-volume strikes. His output rarely dips. This is in contrast to Justin Gaethje, who is more prone to sitting back and waiting for an opening to land one big blow.

Rafael Fiziev knocks out Renato Moicano with a beautiful combination starting from the #body 👊 https://t.co/zbpXSjizwN

Output and volume can win fights. Even if Fiziev misses most of his punches, his activity compared to Gaethje's will look good, especially if 'The Highlight' is constantly moving backwards and allowing his foe to dictate the pace of the bout. The combination of speed, cardio and output could be the American's undoing.

Gaethje isn't the kind of fighter who sets up counterpunches. Instead, he uses a high guard to block his opponent's punches. Against an opponent who is always on the offensive, he'll be trapped in a defensive shell waiting for his turn to throw strikes.