5 reasons why Tony Ferguson could lose to Charles Oliveira
The final UFC pay-per-view event of the year will see a massive lightweight showdown between Tony Ferguson and Charles Oliveira. The bout between the No. 3 and No. 7 ranked lightweights will go down as the co-main event of the night, which will be headlined by the flyweight title fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno.
Tony Ferguson has been asking for a fight before the end of 2020, and he wanted to fight UFC newcomer Michael Chandler. But that fight did not materialize.
Now, Ferguson has found a formidable opponent in Charles Oliveira to secure his position in the title run once again, after losing the top contender spot to Justin Gaethje in May 2020.
UFC 256 will be Tony Ferguson's first appearance since that heartbreaking knockout loss to 'The Highlight' in the final round. He not only failed to capture the interim lightweight title but also lost his opportunity to face the division's champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. The loss marked an end to his 12-fight winning streak in UFC, one that had not been broken since 2013.
The MMA community is more or less divided on who will secure the win on December 12. 'El Cucuy' certainly has all that one should need to take down someone like Charles Oliveira. But on the other hand, he can fall short of the feat as well.
Let's take a look at 5 reasons why Tony Ferguson could lose to Charles Oliveira.
#5 Charles Oliveira's submission skills
![Charles Oliveira - Master of Submissions [Credit: MMA Fighting]](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2020/12/a80f2-16073659363776-800.jpg)
While Tony Ferguson is certainly a strong grappler, Charles Oliveira is a wizard on the mat. He has a third-degree black belt in BJJ under Ericson Cardoso and Jorge Patino.
'Do Bronx' is known for getting opponents into the toughest of positions which become almost impossible to get out of.
He had 19 out of his 29 career wins via submission, 14 of which came in the UFC. Oliveira's last victory over Kevin Lee also came via a third-round submission. The guillotine choke is his favorite submission move, although rear-naked, triangle, and anaconda chokes have found their way into Charles Oliveira submission wins.
#4 Tony Ferguson is coming off his first loss in 8 years
As mentioned earlier, Justin Gaethje successfully broke Tony Ferguson's 12-fight winning streak in May with a fifth round TKO. The last time Tony Ferguson lost was in 2012 against Michael Johnson.
Oftentimes in such cases the confidence of the fighter takes a hit, although no fighter reveals that on the surface. There is always a chance that Ferguson could go too far trying to overcompensate and prove that the loss to 'The Highlight' was nothing but a fluke, although it did cost him a shot at the lightweight title.
#3 It is not the fight Tony Ferguson wanted
![Khabib Nurmagomedov faces off with Tony Ferguson [Credit: Zuffa LLC]](https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2020/12/46147-16073678570194-800.jpg)
A win over Charles Oliveira would be a great way to get back to the winning column, but 'El Cucuy' might be frustrated because he didn't want this fight.
The one fight that had been on his mind for a long time and that he probably cannot get anymore, is the showdown with Khabib Nurmagomedov. The matchup earned the tag of being 'jinxed' by fans as it was booked on five different occasions and got cancelled each time due to varying reasons.
Unless Khabib makes a return like Dana White says he would, that goal of Tony Ferguson's would remain unachieved. Even after Khabib's retirement, waiting for a matchup before the year ends, Ferguson called out Conor McGregor and yet-to-debut Michael Chandler, and there was talk of a fight with Dustin Poirier as well. None of those panned out, and Ferguson was finally booked against Charles Oliveira in the end.
#2 Charles Oliveira is on a seven-fight winning streak
Charles Oliveira himself is on a seven-fight winning streak. He bounced back from a TKO loss to Paul Felder in 2017 with a submission win over Clay Guida and has not looked back ever since. He has clinched victories over the likes of Christos Giagos, Jim Miller, David Teymur, Nik Lentz, Jared Gordon, and lastly Kevin Lee. All the wins are finishes - five submissions and two knockouts.
Even under normal circumstances and at peak form, Tony Ferguson should beware that Oliveira is a force to reckon with.
#1 The uncertainty of the lightweight title shot
Tony Ferguson has already lost his shot at the title once. Now Conor McGregor is definitely making his return to the division and will soon fight against Dustin Poirier. Justin Gaethje on the other hand is reportedly being eyed for Michael Chandler's debut. Despite all this, the title scene in the lightweight division is quite murky, as it is not clear whether Khabib Nurmagomedov will remain retired or come back. He is yet to relinquish his title and is still in the USADA testing pool. Up until recently, he has been adamant about staying retired as well.
This could very well serve as a distraction for Tony Ferguson as he heads into a fight against Charles Oliveira, who despite being a destructive opponent, is four places below 'El Cucuy' in the 155 pounds division rankings.