5 underdogs who are most likely to cause an upset at UFC 310
This weekend sees the final pay-per-view of 2024, as UFC 310 goes down in Las Vegas. As always, there's bound to be a few surprises at the event.
Which fighters are poised to potentially pull off an upset win at UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura? There are definitely a number of possiblities.
So with former champions and hot prospects currently considered as underdogs coming into this event, it could be one for gamblers to look closely at.
Here are five underdogs who are most likely to cause an upset at UFC 310.
Note: All betting odds taken from DraftKings.
#5. Anthony Smith - UFC light heavyweight (+270 underdog)
UFC 310's preliminary card will see a clash of former light heavyweight title challengers, as Dominick Reyes takes on Anthony Smith.
The odds on the fight currently have Reyes as the favorite, and based on his recent win over Dustin Jacoby, it's understandable. 'The Devastator' destroyed Jacoby with punches in the first round, needing just two minutes to dispatch him.
Smith, on the other hand, fell to a blown-up middleweight in the form of Roman Dolidze in his last fight, and did not exactly look at his best. However, that doesn't mean that 'Lionheart' isn't capable of pulling off what would be considered an upset win here.
Prior to his win over Jacoby, Reyes hadn't won a bout in the octagon since his knockout of Chris Weidman, which happened in October 2019. Since then, he'd lost four straight fights, three via knockout. Many fans had even called for him to retire after Ryan Spann stopped him.
Smith is probably even further past his prime, but as his wins over Vitor Petrino and Spann showed, he's still a very capable and dangerous finisher. More to the point, he's still durable, and hasn't suffered a first-round defeat in over a decade.
Given Reyes' own issues with durability, then, there's every chance that 'Lionheart' can outlast him here, making him a prime candidate to pull off a betting upset.
#4. Dooho Choi - UFC featherweight (+120 underdog)
UFC 310's main card opener will see a potential firefight at 145 pounds, as noted brawlers Dooho Choi and Nate Landwehr are set to square off.
Current betting lines suggest that Landwehr is the favorite, while Choi is a +120 underdog. So could 'The Korean Superboy' be primed to produce an upset this weekend?
Based on sheer talent, Choi should probably be considered one of the bigger letdowns in recent UFC history. Despite being blessed with remarkably quick hands, a solid chin and a strong wrestling game, he just hasn't progressed into contention as many fans suspected he would.
His lengthy layoffs are probably to blame for this, of course, as he's only fought four times since the end of 2016.
However, 'The Korean Superboy' looked excellent in his stoppage of Bill Algeo earlier this year, and while he's 33 years old, his sporadic record should mean he isn't cooked just yet.
Landwehr is obviously a very tough, hard-nosed brawler, and he's won five of his eight octagon bouts. However, 'Nate the Train' arguably hasn't beaten anyone on Choi's level just yet.
More to the point, Landwehr has shown issues with his durability before. He's been knocked out twice, and was also outgunned by Dan Ige in their 2023 bout.
If Choi can produce his best, then, there's every chance that his fast hands and punching power will be too much for 'Nate the Train', allowing him to pull off an upset.
#3. Aljamain Sterling - UFC featherweight contender (+220 underdog)
The big surprise in terms of UFC 310's bout order is the fact that former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling will feature on the preliminary card against unbeaten featherweight contender Movsar Evloev.
In many ways, though, it's also a surprise that 'Funk Master' is currently a +220 underdog in the bout.
Sure, Evloev has never lost a fight, currently boasting a record of 18-0. He's also beaten some very tough opponents like Dan Ige, Diego Lopes and Arnold Allen.
However, it's also arguable that Sterling is the best fighter he's ever stepped up against.
Not only is 'Funk Master' widely regarded as the best bantamweight in UFC history thanks to wins over the likes of Petr Yan, TJ Dillashaw, and Henry Cejudo, but he's also an absolutely fantastic grappler.
It's unlikely that Evloev will simply be able to outwrestle Sterling as he did to his other foes. When you consider that Lopes' submission skills gave him issues, it's easy to see 'Funk Master' doing the same.
Therefore, while it makes sense that Evloev's unbeaten status would make him the favorite here, it also wouldn't be shocking to see Sterling produce an upset.
#2. Ian Garry - UFC welterweight (+295 underdog)
It's arguable that the most intriguing fight set to go down at UFC 310 is the co-headliner between welterweight contenders Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Garry.
Right now, Rakhmonov is the betting favorite, and that largely makes sense. 'Nomad' is ranked four places above Garry at No. 3, and he was set to fight for the welterweight title before the withdrawal of champion Belal Muhammad.
Garry, then, has taken the bout on relatively late notice, and so being a +295 underdog is probably fair.
However, to write off 'The Future' would probably be a big mistake, and in fact, the Irishman may well be more capable of springing an upset than most people realise.
Firstly, it isn't like Garry has fought much worse opponents than Rakhmonov. Both men have beaten Neil Magny and Geoff Neal, and although 'Nomad' finished both, it's arguable that Garry handled his fight with Neal better by not being drawn into a brawl.
Secondly, Garry might've accepted the fight with Rakhmonov late, but he was training for a fight with Joaquin Buckley on Dec. 14, meaning he shouldn't be too rusty.
Thirdly and most importantly, styles make fights, and it's definitely possible that 'The Future' and his range-based striking game might be very difficult for Rakhmonov to handle, particularly if 'Nomad' can't draw him into a firefight.
Basically, this fight is much closer than it's being made out to be, and to see Garry spring the upset wouldn't be a shock.
#1. Vicente Luque - UFC welterweight (+136 underdog)
The fighter who feels most likely to spring an upset as the betting underdog at UFC 310 this weekend is welterweight contender Vicente Luque.
'The Silent Assassin' was initially set to face off with legendary veteran Nick Diaz, but with the Stockton favorite now sidelined, the Brazilian will instead face Themba Gorimbo.
Despite Gorimbo taking the bout on less than four weeks' notice, though, somehow he's currently considered a -162 betting favorite, with Luque coming in as a +136 underdog.
Quite why this is the case is anyone's guess.
Even ignoring the late notice for Gorimbo, 'The Answer' has simply never faced an opponent close to the level of Luque before.
The native of Zimbabwe is currently on a four-fight win streak and is 4-1 in the octagon overall. However, his best win is probably over Niko Price, a man who Luque has beaten twice.
More to the point, while 'The Silent Assassin' has lost three of his last four, there's no shame in falling to Belal Muhammad, Geoff Neal or Joaquin Buckley. We're literally only 16 months removed from Luque outpointing Rafael dos Anjos.
With that in mind, then, Gorimbo feels like the kind of opponent that 'The Silent Assassin' has tended to deal with handily over the years, usually via some kind of nasty finish.
Whether the bookmakers know something that fans currently don't - perhaps Luque is carrying an injury of some kind - is unknown. However, given the odds, he's definitely the fighter most likely to pull an upset this weekend.